Week 1 CFB Notions

[bills217]

[censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored].

I could've gotten Kentucky +25 at Louisville 3 weeks ago and now it's down to +22.5...[censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored].

Edited to add: The 22.5 has value IMO but not nearly as much as the 25...

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
It's Friday, and I'd rather discuss football than work... So, I figure I'll go ahead and share some early leans that I have for Week 1, hoping that people will come out of the woodwork with considerations that I haven't thought of... I'll save the logic until we get closer to the start of the season.

Fla. Int'l +10.5 at Mid. Ten. St. (3 unit)
Toledo +7.5 at Iowa St. (3 unit)
Miss St. +7 vs South Carolina (2 unit)
Pitt -3.5 vs UVA (2 unit)
Nebraska -20 vs La. Tech (2 unit)
Wisconsin -10 neutral Bowling Green (2 unit)
Clemson -34 vs Fla. Atlantic (1 unit)

And, here are a few games that I will play if I get a line-move in the right direction...

UTEP +1 at SDSU (1 unit)
Rice +13 vs Houston (1 unit)
Auburn -15 vs Wash. St. (1 unit)
San Jose St. +18 at Washington (1 unit)
Oregon -11.5 vs Stanford (1 unit)
Texas -41 vs N. Texas (1 unit)

I also expect that I will like the following when they get posted:

Cal/Tenn under
Miami/FSU under
Nebraska/La. Tech under
Florida/So. Miss under
Oregon/Stanford over

I haven't heard a whole lot of talk about most of the games that I am eyeing, which is kinda why I am posting them. It's interesting, because the plays that most people (squares?) seem to be excited about are Wisconsin, N'Western, Indiana, Houston, and Utah. I agree with Wisconsin, disagree with Houston, but I think the lines on the other three are right on...

Anyway, all thoughts on these (or other) games are welcome.

ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to update...

BetCRIS has moved Pitt to -5 and Miss St. to +5.5, so I went ahead and played Pitt -3.5 -107 and Miss St. +7 -113 at Pinny, just in case (most places have Pitt at -4 or -4.5 and Miss St. at +6.5). I was hoping to hold out, particularly on Miss St., but I'm happy with those lines, so I'd rather get my plays in...

Nebraska -20, Fla. Int'l +11, and Toledo +7.5 are widely available. Wisconsin won't be a play for me anymore due to the injury to Stocco. Clemson is down to -32.5 in some spots, so I'm going to hold out there as well.

ML4L

[domer2]

USC will have one of the best defenses in the nation. I didn't bet the house on USC, but I did bet a larger amount than normal.

The only games I have money on so far is USC -8 at Arkansas and Notre Dame -6.5 at Michigan State.

[pirateboy]

[ QUOTE ]
USC will have one of the best defenses in the nation. I didn't bet the house on USC, but I did bet a larger amount than normal.

The only games I have money on so far is USC -8 at Arkansas and Notre Dame -6.5 at Michigan State.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you get the -6.5 from a friend? If not, what effing sportsbook has that up already?

[broiler]

The Sportingbet family has lines for about half of the ND season up in their college football games of the year. I just checked and the 6.5 line is still current at Sportingbetusa and Sportsbook.

[pirateboy]

For some reason, and I don't know why, I'm really considering putting a unit on Miami (-4) v. Florida State.

Also, I'm going a tad insane and I kind of like Syracuse (+16) @ Wake.

I probably will pass on Iowa State/Toledo, USC/Arkansas, ND/GT.

So, as of now, I haven't placed any units, but in the next couple days, I plan to make:

Akron (+16) @ Penn State
S. Carolina (-5.5) @ Miss State
Rutgers (+6) @ UNC
Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama
Utah (+4) @ UCLA
Oregon (-11.5) v. Stanford

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
For some reason, and I don't know why, I'm really considering putting a unit on Miami (-4) v. Florida State.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear your angle on this game. My initial thought a few weeks ago when I was doing my research is that FSU is a better team than Miami this year, that the line would come -3 or -3.5, and I would take FSU. Then, Miami had those players suspendend, so I figured the line would come -2.5, and it would be no play for me (I'd rather capture the 3 than have the additional personnel edge). When the line actually posts, it comes at -4, despite the suspensions, and it hasn't really moved since then (I know that it is -3.5 some places, but I think you can still find -4 without a ton of effort).

So, I'm a little scared that, by hanging the line at -4, the books are making their opinion on these two teams very obvious, and I generally don't like fading a strong statement from the books... Now I'm thinking that FSU isn't as good as I initially thought...?

Thoughts?

[ QUOTE ]

So, as of now, I haven't placed any units, but in the next couple days, I plan to make:

Akron (+16) @ Penn State
S. Carolina (-5.5) @ Miss State
Rutgers (+6) @ UNC
Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama
Utah (+4) @ UCLA
Oregon (-11.5) v. Stanford

[/ QUOTE ]

No opinion on Akron.

You know my thoughts on S. Car., but the number is getting more reasonable for you (starting safety just got suspended, though).

Lots of people like Rutgers, Hawaii, Utah, and Oregon; I probably won't play any of those, though.

Out of curiosity, how many books do you have an account at?

ML4L

[MCS]

FWIW Akron opened at like 18 and got hit with a lot of money after Fezzik released it as a multi-unit play. I grabbed it at +17.5 (huzzah, maybe).

What is going on with the USC-Arkansas total? I figured that USC's QBs haven't looked so great, their D should be strong, Arkansas' stud RB is out, and there are the new speed-up-the-game rules, so the game might be sort of medium-scoring.

It opened at 59, which seems insane to me. It then got POUNDED down to 52, which still seems a tad high. Is there something I don't know?

[mal_noles]

I really like TCU -8, Baylor actually played some teams close last year early in the season in low scoring games, but they lost 7 starters on D. This should be at least -10.

The FSU/UM under at 40. I also think FSU wins, but Im a biased alum, so I refuse to bet on them.

[JupiterUWG]

As a michigan follower....i'll be on vandy +25.5