*EXPERT!!!1@* - Page 2

True · #11 07-13-2006, 07:23 PM

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villain has either AX, KK QQ JJ (and maybe some smaller pairs).. as a reasonably good hand reader, he valuebets most stuff he pays off with. He pays off the CR b/c it's weird. and sexy.

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I think the c/r on the river is a mistake. I am also not sure about the flop bet, but I think that is strides better than the river.

True

siegfriedandroy · #12 07-13-2006, 07:25 PM

not sure if i like donking flop, or just check/calling better. as played, i think you have to bet the river, hoping to 3bet. underpairs are likely checking behind, and ak and (maybe) aq will raise allowing you to 3bet. disastrous if you make zero bets on the riv.

donger · #13 07-13-2006, 07:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
villain has either AX, KK QQ JJ (and maybe some smaller pairs).. as a reasonably good hand reader, he valuebets most stuff he pays off with. He pays off the CR b/c it's weird. and sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the c/r on the river is a mistake. I am also not sure about the flop bet, but I think that is strides better than the river.

True

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want to elaborate with hand ranges and reasoning?

NOTE: my plan changed on every street in this hand as I reevaluated villain's likely hand and course of action.

donger · #14 07-13-2006, 07:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
not sure if i like donking flop, or just check/calling better. as played, i think you have to bet the river, hoping to 3bet. underpairs are likely checking behind, and ak and (maybe) aq will raise allowing you to 3bet. disastrous if you make zero bets on the riv.

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I thought I could tease a valuebet from KK & QQ. AK might threebet and let me cap. Any A certainly isn't checking behind. This reasoning may be flawed, but I put him on a fairly tight range after he threebet preflop, so I think the only hand he checks behind here is TT (and split jacks if he's bad enough to peel the flop with KJ)..

siegfriedandroy · #15 07-13-2006, 07:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
villain has either AX, KK QQ JJ (and maybe some smaller pairs).. as a reasonably good hand reader, he valuebets most stuff he pays off with. He pays off the CR b/c it's weird. and sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the c/r on the river is a mistake. I am also not sure about the flop bet, but I think that is strides better than the river.

True

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True · #16 07-13-2006, 07:42 PM

I think he is more likely to bet TT on the river than KK / QQ, I also think TT is quite unlikely on the river.

Villain will not have a huge range of A-x on the river and I think a higher expectation can be found by bet/3-betting than by c/ring.

The EV of a bet against KK/QQ (the most part of his range) is higher than a c/r.

I believe the EV of a c/r only to be best against small A-x hands of which I find to be a small part of his range.

True

luckyharr · #17 07-13-2006, 07:47 PM

I get your thinking on the river. By the river it looks like he has KK or QQ and will make a thin value bet which you can check raise.

However, I don't like the way you played the other postflop streets. You can check/raise the flop, bet, bet and guarantee netting 3BB from the villian. Your line gets 1.5 BB in and then another 2BB on the river if he makes a thin value bet and an equally thin call. Likewise, I think you lose less against AK/AQ the times you don't hit a jack by check/raising the flop.

donger · #18 07-13-2006, 07:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think he is more likely to bet TT on the river than KK / QQ, I also think TT is quite unlikely on the river.

Villain will not have a huge range of A-x on the river and I think a higher expectation can be found by bet/3-betting than by c/ring.

The EV of a bet against KK/QQ (the most part of his range) is higher than a c/r.

I believe the EV of a c/r only to be best against small A-x hands of which I find to be a small part of his range.

True

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Yeah, you might be right. This felt good when I did it as villain showed QQ. In this particular case I was correct in the fact that he would be aggressive enough to value bet most any hand he would call the turn with. Your thinking is probably correct against most opponents though.

donger · #19 07-13-2006, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I get your thinking on the river. By the river it looks like he has KK or QQ and will make a thin value bet which you can check raise.

However, I don't like the way you played the other postflop streets. You can check/raise the flop, bet, bet and guarantee netting 3BB from the villian. Your line gets 1.5 BB in and then another 2BB on the river if he makes a thin value bet and an equally thin call. Likewise, I think you lose less against AK/AQ the times you don't hit a jack by check/raising the flop.

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Yeah, my plan changed on each street. Flop plan was to bet then screwplay the turn if just called, reevaluate on the turn if raised on the flop. Hitting yahtzee on the turn changed to a bet-3bet attempt. He just called, though, and then I realized he probably would have raised any AAA hand on the turn. I thought I had his range pretty dialed in on the river and tried to nail a thin CR on the river VS KK QQ.

oreopimp · #20 07-13-2006, 09:25 PM

a lagtag is not going to have a really tight 3betting range with you opening in Co unless uare tight. its wider than u think.

dont like the flop donk, Id prefer c/ring, he should be smart enough to know hes probably dead if u bet/3bet this flop. The way u played it up to the river, imo gets the minimum on the hand. River is up in the air, if he actually called your c/r make a note that hes not that good if he has KK or below (no idea how tight or whatever how u play, but against a "typical" 2+2er his call sucks unless he has bigger than QQ/KK).