whore this, ubersucker

[Linksys]

Casino on Net(4k WR) and Intercasino(2k WR) would be my guesses. You're right that he should have started with PL and SL.

[Linksys]

Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo.

[Ad Alta]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a standard deviation of 1.14, and being $192 or 19.2 bets below EV, through 160 bets, you are only 1.33 sigma off the norm.

Which is to say, yeah, it's quite common.

[Linksys]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ortho, I was flat betting $10 and lost all $200, the $100 deposit plus the $100 bonus, after I had wagered 2010 of the 2500. Sorry for the confusion. I was just stating that at the 1600 WR point, I had 130 left, and then proceeded to lose the remaining 130 over the next 510 in wagers. This should affect your calculation because I busted at 2010 instead of 1600, right?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm just as likely to get to $400 as I am to bust, right? That is, I have the same chance of going +200 to 400 as I do of going -200 to 0. Right? Just wanted to confirm that I'm not being an idiot betting $10 at a time.

[Ortho]

Oh, I see what you are saying. You lost 13 units in 51 wagers. The wizard's chart doesn't handle numbers that low, so I wouldn't feel comfortable interpolating, so I'll have a go at the math. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

StdDev=1.14, HA=.49%, 12.75 below EV, 51 trials = 1.56 sigma?

If that's right (I'm not that confident), it's still not particularly uncommon. You need to get to at least 2 sigma to start complaining, and even then you should expect to hit that about 1 out of every 20 sessions.

[Linksys]

No that's not what I'm saying. Sorry I know I'm being confusing.

I don't care about that tiny sample size. I'm wondering what the odds are, simply, of busting the casino before I clear 2050, and before I clear 2500, assuming I am making $10 bets and start with 200. Sorry for the confusion.