SNG statistics - Page 2

Hakon · #11 06-15-2006, 11:51 AM

Maybe I've misunderstood something, but I used a 95% confidence interval to calculate that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval

<p - z sqrt(p(1-p)/n), p + z sqrt(p(1-p)/n)> = <.19 - 1.96 sqrt(.19(1-.19)/150), .19 + 1.96 sqrt(.19(1-.19)/150)> = <.13, .25>

Don't you think he's got any idea wether he's a winning player when he's played 150 SnGs with a ROI of 19%?

wildzer0 · #12 06-15-2006, 11:55 AM

Well I have no idea what that crazy math means, but I can say that I'm a winning player and I can easily go over 150 sngs with a negative roi or a ridiculously inflated one.

PartySNGer · #13 06-15-2006, 11:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
150 SNG's mostly $33's and $55's and my ITM is 46%, ROI 19%... How good or bad are those numbers for these levels? Is 150 really enough to give me an idea of where I stand ? Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

19% ROI is terrible for $55s. I would quit now and get a job at McDonald's if possible.

TruFloridaGator · #14 06-15-2006, 11:58 AM

Lock this beautiful thread.

miami32 · #15 06-15-2006, 11:59 AM

If you are ITM 46% and your ROI is only 19% something is seriously wrong with your 3 and 4 handed play.

TruFloridaGator · #16 06-15-2006, 12:02 PM

Jesus Christ, people. Stop commenting on a 150 sng sample.

PartySNGer · #17 06-15-2006, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are ITM 46% and your ROI is only 19% something is seriously wrong with your 3 and 4 handed play.

[/ QUOTE ]

My ROI is -3% and ITM 49% over my last 750 $55s. Should I be concerned?

PartySNGer · #18 06-15-2006, 12:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus Christ, people. Stop commenting on a 150 sng sample.

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Just for future reference, at what sample is it OK to comment?

Hakon · #19 06-15-2006, 12:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well I have no idea what that crazy math means, but I can say that I'm a winning player and I can easily go over 150 sngs with a negative roi or a ridiculously inflated one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if you split up all your SnGs in 150-SnGs-chunks, 95% of the chuncks' ROI should be between 13% and 25% if your true ROI is 19%. If you've played thousands of SnGs, of course many of the chuncks will have a ROI that is below or above that confidence interval.

benfranklin · #20 06-15-2006, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus Christ, people. Stop commenting on a 150 sng sample.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's worse than that, because he doesn't have a sample size of 150. The OP said that he was playing mostly 33s and 55s. So what he has here is maybe 3 to 5 much smaller samples of different games, all lumped together and treated as if they were all the same thing.