World Cup Team Draft

[ImBen]

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Spain has almost twice the winning probability of Italy.

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Right now at Pinnacle:

Italy +1015
Spain +1542

So this says Spain has about 2/3 the winning probability of Italy.

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Thank God for the discrepency between betting markets and reality, because office work really sucks.

[Richas]

I would pick Italybefore Spain, for the second choice - Ukraine, very strong qualifiers.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Spain has almost twice the winning probability of Italy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now at Pinnacle:

Italy +1015
Spain +1542

So this says Spain has about 2/3 the winning probability of Italy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God for the discrepency between betting markets and reality, because office work really sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

*shrug*

It's just hard for me to believe Pinnacle's linemakers are that far off. It's not personal, but I tend to think they're a pretty good guide.

Generally, when someone on 2+2 makes a definitive statement that is hugely different than what the market says, I trust the market. Also, people will probably be skeptical of trusting your word over the market's without an extremely convincing reason. But maybe you are genuinely better than Pinnacle. Good luck either way.

[LegallyBlind]

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The #1 slot seems to have a huge advantage because you get Brazil.

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not only that..but who in gods name has an 11 person world cup team draft [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I think having a five-person draft is pushing it.
Anyway, good luck regardless

[MagicN0odle]

isnt czech republic one of the top teams

i definately see them win this year