|
|
#11
06-02-2006, 01:30 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: You don\'t have to pay for your Vonage shares
This company will never make money, they look like a very good short option. As DesertCat pointed out the only reason they went public was so those on the inside could get some cash out. My previous post concerning the Vonage IPO:
[ QUOTE ] I would steer well clear of this company as I believe it will be very difficult for them to ever make money. Essentially, they are caught between the rock & the hard place, companies like Skype that don't charge and companies that 'own' the last mile that can essentially survive off the fixed cost of your internet connection. In Japan, which has very high VOIP penetraton, companies like Vonage do not really exist since the ADSL suppliers provide VOIP for next to nothing. [/ QUOTE ] 
|
|
#12
06-02-2006, 03:10 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: You don\'t have to pay for your Vonage shares
Just a side question: Do you think Vonage would make a good takeover target for someone like Comcast or another company in a related business? It seems like Comcast could garner a greater customer base for a fraction of the cost, and of course, they're already in the broadband business.
|
|
#13
06-02-2006, 05:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: You don\'t have to pay for your Vonage shares
[ QUOTE ]
Just a side question: Do you think Vonage would make a good takeover target for someone like Comcast or another company in a related business? It seems like Comcast could garner a greater customer base for a fraction of the cost, and of course, they're already in the broadband business. [/ QUOTE ] As of April 1, Vonage had 1.6M subscribers. Their market cap today was round $1.8B. Comcast would have to pay at least $2B, or over $1,000 for every subscriber. That's not a cheap way to acquire customers. And why would Comcast care about aquiring customers from other cable systems? Those customers are worthless to Comcast, they don't leverage it's infrastructure and are so costly that Vonage couldn't make a profit even at $100 a head acquisition costs. Comcast can garner IP phone customers much less expensively than Vonage, because they just recruit from their existing high speed internet and cable customers. I'd bet their IP phone customer acquisition cost is less than $50. And Vonage tried to sell itself before the IPO. They asked for $2B, which means they would have taken $1.5B or less. They apparently got laughed at so many times they decided to find "dumb money" hence the IPO. Vonage is no Skype. No-one wants to buy them. My bet is that any "assets" they own like a customer list will be sold at bankruptcy.
|
|
#15
06-03-2006, 12:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: You don\'t have to pay for your Vonage shares
[ QUOTE ]
Always nice to see a bankruptcy prediction, immediately following an IPO [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I wish I had been smart enough to make that prediction before the IPO, my short would be up over 30% in a week 
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
