Re: 10-20nl 67s
On the turn-
Suppose I bet the turn, and he is on a draw and decides to use the ace to push me off a pocketpair. I am forced to call, and I would not be surprised if his UI draw would beat my UI draw on the river. If he has a flushdraw, it also likely is better than mine.
Given that villain called my raise preflop, I would expect his hand to be either some sort of suited connector or one gapper type hand or a pocket pair of varying strength (ie 22 to 66 to kk, etc). Should I just bet the turn I would expect to fold out some pocket pairs some of the time. However, should I check the turn, I would expect that the weaker my opponent's pocket pair is, the more he would be inclined to bet the turn. (Furthermore, with my tight image, my handrange will be weighted towards better pocket pairs as opposed to worse ones.... so villains pps will look that much weaker in comparison.) And once, I c/r 3x the raise (which would actually be AI in this case), I would fold out a large portion of his range. As mentinoed, its also possible that I would fold out stronger flush draws or stronger straight draws (which would be getting insufficient odds to hit... about 3:1 with some partial outs and paired board).
As an added bonus I also pick up 600 extra dollars or soo. Yay for a months rent.
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05-27-2006, 09:02 AM
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