2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?

[justice4all]

If you are asking i would say NO!!!!

The games are soft but without alot of experience in bankroll management, game selection, and the ability not to go off playing casino games you are in trouble.

Being able to beat the game is only half the battle.

The games at the beligio are very soft but small buyin.
The games at the wynn are a little tougher.
The games at the smaller poker rooms would be your best bet.
MGM has some soft action.


you will have to take some shots at the bigger games 5-10 NL or 10-20 NL. Buy in small and hit and run when the games are good.


I read in 1 of the post that a win rate of 40% is good. If your win rate is 40% in NL you will have no shot of making a living. You should win around 70% of the time in these games. When you are running goood and the games are good play.


GOOD LUCK you are going to need it.

[Matt Flynn]

No at the Bellagio; yes elsewhere.

The critical problem at the Bellagio is that with a $200 cap and few larger stacks in a 10-handed game, you have to nit. You just do not get enough hands to make it worthwhile, although a leatherass with 60 hours a week to blow could easily make $1000/week or more. In the absence of the "pros" who make money off the game, you can develop room to move and make more.

In the $2-5 at the Wynn, the story is very different. A good pro can easily make a living off of those games. $20/hour is plenty to live off, and $50/hour is a reasonable winrate for a good player who buys to cover and works his (or her) schedule around the shorthanded games. By good I mean a typical successful high-stakes player who does not tilt heavily and can induce action and get away from hands quickly. But you cannot cork off your stack. Simple as that. In many cases one can simply hardbet preflop, flop and turn for hours, only needing to recognize the occasional big hand (which typically is not difficult), and will win a fair amount of money even if he does not hit a couple big hands. And when you do and they have AK on a K board, they never believe you. This is the superprofitable LAG style. It works well only against bad opponents.

It is generally foolish for anyone who has trouble beating the Wynn $2-5 game to "take a shot" at the Bellagio $10-20. Stop doing it. You will, most likely, hold it together ofr an hour or two then give your stack away. I have done it and seen it again and again. Player plays really tight for an hour or two, then loosens up, then a couple experienced players bully him a bit and he runs into a big hand or two, then it all goes in the middle and he's left trying to explain why the play was reasonable. Experienced players feed off of that. I'm telling you it's like a neon sign. Instead, take your "shot" at the $5-10 when the lineup is soft. Soft may well mean a lot of players are throwing chips around and doing a lot of calling. Fine. Play pairs and AK and take your due.

Also, the OP's question begs the question: why are you depending on live play to pay your expenses? In the modern age, live play is a luxury for a professional, something to be enjoyed after the nut is in hand. The online money is sickly easy once you learn enough of the game. Study the first two hours of each morning, then play for four and make the 10K a month. After that you can go play live to scratch the itch.

[Chaostracize]

Only 10k?

Have you not read CaptZeebo's blog yet?

[bav]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys, title of the post says it all. I'm thinking of moving out to Vegas in the next few months and I was wondering if the 2-5NL games are beatable for enough to make a living.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but... for every success story there are probably several failures. I've talked to multiple 20-somethings who picked up a couple big tournament wins back home and were cleaning up on their home cash games who came to Vegas to be a poker pro. 6mo later they've lost $20K, they have $5K left, and are shell shocked that things coulda gone so wrong.

So have a plan B.

[pipster]

Generally Tipping, etc is figured into winrates. I know I figure in my winrate after cocktail, dealer, and brush tips.

And 2K for a monthly nut is pretty darn reasonable if you live sparsely. If your car is paid for, get a roommate in a not expensive place. You can get by on $500 in rent, $400 in other bills (insurance, utilities, internet), and a few hundred for food,gas. You can easily make a $1500 nut work with room to spare. $2K is darn reasonable as a not over the top living expenses. Now can you make 2K a month after tips, rake, suckouts, etc at the 2/5 NL game. That I don't know. I would think you probably could as I think you can make 2K a month at the 4/8 LHE games in vegas (avg 2 BB/hr @ 40 hours/week = 640/week), but I wouldn't want to try at anything less than 10/20 and preferably 20/40 (which is why I plan to deal as well as play until I am confident enough in my winrate to stick in the 20/40)

[ QUOTE ]
First of all your monthly "nut" as you call it will not be 2K in Vegas. A decent apt. is going to cost you half of that at least! Since you will be playing poker 8 to 12 hours a day, four or more days a week, you will be eating out a lot. You can of course get some comp benefits from the rooms where you play, however, keep in mind that not only are most places starting to tighen up on comps but it takes a lot of poker action to get any really decent comps out of a large room. Chances are you will be eating a lot of buffet food if you expect to live on 2K and comps.

Next, you need to figure on $20/day in gratuities (mimimum). 20 days out of the month, that's another $400 you need to clear. You may have seen or heard much debate about the need to tip or not tip but I assure you that if you plan to hang at the Wynn or Bellagio or the Mirage and think you can get away without tipping the cocktail waitress, the dealer, the brush (or cardroom manager) as well as a myriad of other "service personnel" then you are in for a rough time.

So let's do the math and see what it will really take...

Let's say you actually need $3000/month, not $2000. (probably a conservative figure) Divide that by 20 days and you only need to clear $150/day every single day that you play in order to achieve your monetary goal.

Assuming you can average a 40% rate of winning sessions (this is the figure Annie Duke told me that she was averaging after years of cash game play) that means you will actually leave the game ahead 8 out of 20 sessions.

This leaves you needing to average $375/session to earn your $3000 "nut". (and that buffet food isn't tasting so good after a couple of months).

Keep in mind that you also need to win enough during your winning sessions to recover your losses during your 12 loosing sessions or your bankroll will begin to shrink.

Playing any NL or PL game the variance will be much greater so your won/loss swings will be larger than if you were playing LHE. (one of the math genuises on this forum can help you work out the numbers).

At any rate, I'm sure you are beginning to catch my drift. While it can be done, you are probably pushing the limits of probability by expecting to win enough money playing NL or PL games for relatively small blinds/ buy-ins. Probably would be better served to fortify your BR, hone up on your LHE game and try to grind out one big blind per hour at the 20/40 tables.

That way you could keep your play down to 30 hours per week or so ($1200/week, not too shabby), keep your mind fresh and be able to have the time and money to eat somewhere besides the buffet line at the Imperial Palace.

[/ QUOTE ]

[dustyn]

You have to consider taxes...you really need to make 3k a month to reach your 2k monthly nut...assuming you can live on 2k.

-dustyn

[Matt Flynn]

[ QUOTE ]
Only 10k?

Have you not read CaptZeebo's blog yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a pessimist.

[lefty rosen]

If you can't avoid casino games then you shouldn't even try and be a pro gambler(yes I know about TJ). Also who tips a floorman? I have never done this in my life........ [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[betgo]

Take a 2 week vacation to Vegas and play 2/5NL. Try some 1/2 NL and 5/10 NL also. If you play limit well, try some limit holdem/stud/Omaha games. See how you do on the trip.

If you can't beat games in casinos, card clubs, or the Internet for a good profit now, don't try to become pro.

Also, multitabling SNGs or cash games on the Internet is pretty steady and you should show a profit most days doing that. You might try some of that to steady your income. I am mostly a tournament player, which results in big swings, but I find some multitabling of SNGs keep things steadier.

[MadTiger]

Giving them a little taste every now and again might work wonders. "Oh, you're next, buddy"