ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[LBJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Since no one gives a damn about any post I make, guess I'll try here:

I'm offered Kendrick/Peralta/Dye for Dunn/B. Philips in standard yahoo h2h league, take?

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While I'm in the thread I thought I might as well chime in here. This trade looks very good, you should definitly take it IMO. Dye and Dunn have comparable values and barring a weird scoring system I would give the very slight edge to Dye.

Kendrick and Peralta definitly > BP.

[Thremp]

LBJ,

How is Ryan Ho a better keeper than Utley?

[LBJ]

I don't see how Howard's keeper value couldn't be higher than Utleys. While you cannot just set focus on age, Howard had a better season than Utley last year at a younger age.

58 HR and 158 RBI at the age of 26 is enough to convince me that he will be a monster for at least the next 5 years. After getting into a groove just 1 month into the season, Howard was consistently the best hitter in the game, posting anywhere from 1.000-1.300 OPS every single month after.

As good of a season Utley had last year, he was up and down (3 full months under .273 AVG and .627 OPS in August) until the end of the year when he went on an absolute tear. I would project him to have a slightly worse year than he did last year, but return to a consistent 2b worthy of a 2nd round pick in a re-draft league.

Other than overvaluing positional scarcity, how do you see Utley as a better keeper than Howard in the long run?

[Thremp]

I didn't say he was. I was just expecting a cogent argument. Some points:

1) Utley is head and shoulders above the next tier of 2nd basemen.
2) Ryan Ho is much more of an overachiever than Utley IIRC he had one of the highest BAPIP ever in the majors. He's much more likely to regress. And the Ks reduce his value.
3) He's not the best hitter in the majors or the best first baseman.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
8-team roto keeper league
5x5+ CG, BB and H, TB, 3B, BB, K

pls rank these options:

a) pujols + m. young + d. wright
b) utley + wright + guerrero
c) howard + guerrero + wright

[/ QUOTE ]

C, B, A, but it's pretty close. the gap between pujols and howard widens in this setup, but vlad is a beast.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Since no one gives a damn about any post I make, guess I'll try here:

I'm offered Kendrick/Peralta/Dye for Dunn/B. Philips in standard yahoo h2h league, take?

[/ QUOTE ]

take. i think dunn is better than dye by a decent margin, but the gap between kendrick and phillips more than makes up for it.

[DrNo888]

13 teams 5x5 roto.

I got Utley middle of first round. Passed up Ortiz, MCabrera, Wright since those positions are deeper than 2B.

Would you rather take Mauer or Texeira/Morneau second round?
I am leaning towards Texeira since Victor Martinez or McCann should probably be available 3rd/4th round.

[SL__72]

[ QUOTE ]

10 teams, I have the 10th pick.

Players:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL

Stats:
R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, OBP, SLG

IP, W, L, SV, CG, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB


[/ QUOTE ]

Commish removed walks for pitchers and added CG, making starters even more valuable...

Thoughts on my draft?

C Mike Piazza
1B Price Fielder
2B Howie Kendrick
3B David Wright
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Vladamir Guererro
OF Jason Bay
OF Alex Rios
Util Torii Hunter
BN Joe Crede

SP Brandon Webb
SP Aaron Harang
RP Pat Neshek
RP Juan Rincon
P Scott Kazmir
P Derek Lowe
P Bronson Arroyo
BN Jason Schmidt
BN Mark Prior
BN Pedro Martinez
BN Matt Garza

/edit Its probably important that I can change roster daily (not sure if that is standard or not, don't know much about fantasy baseball...)

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
13 teams 5x5 roto.

I got Utley middle of first round. Passed up Ortiz, MCabrera, Wright since those positions are deeper than 2B.

Would you rather take Mauer or Texeira/Morneau second round?
I am leaning towards Texeira since Victor Martinez or McCann should probably be available 3rd/4th round.

[/ QUOTE ]

mauer, but teixeira could be okay if you think you can get a decent catcher at a good value later. don't take morneau.

[rwperu34]

18 team Dice League draft, Dynasty League style. We draft once every two years and players must have 30g, 100ab, or 25ip to be eligible for the draft.

Ryan Howard is going first, that's pretty much a given. The team that's there payed a big price to get him. Things can change, but I fully expect he'll be taken first.

The second slot is where things get interesting. It's one of my teams that has been a perennial doormat. They still have no chance of being comptetitive on this set of cards, so they are really building for 2008 and beyond. The choices are Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, and Brian McCann. There's no need to take a pitcher even though that is this teams biggest weakness.

Here's how my ratings shake out;

Player, Upside, Future Value, Value of Card
Delmon Young, 135.2, 10.0, 37
Stephen Drew, 133.7, 9.5, 76
Brian McCann, 375.7, 9.0, 109

Upside is directly from PECOTA . Future Value is my rating based on many factors, the biggest being age, ceiling, and how well a player translates to the league. Value of Card is sort of a VORP for my league. For comparison, Pujols and Mauer rate at 121 for the best in the league.

The team's roster looks like this;
C-Mike Lieberthal, Toby Hall, Robert Fick
SS-Jose Hernandez
OF-Milton Bradley, Juan Encarnacion, Robert Fick, Jose Hernandez, Geoff Jenkins, Austin Kearns, Grady Sizemore, Matt Stairs.

There are plenty of other shortstops available, so it's not like they'll be stuck with Hernandez as a starter.

I think a strong case can be made for any of the three. Convince me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]