LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring (GAME THREAD)

[Nez477]

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it'd be nice if everyone showed up on a crucial day...

w/ 4 hours until lynch...

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I hate having two days on the weekend. It is the suck.

We have friends from out of town here this weekend and have been AFK most of the weekend. I should be back at like 9PM ET I will try and reread if possible.

For the time being, I will go with DMK in case I don't get back.

Brad

[Zurvan]

countif?

[Nez477]

And by DMK I really meant

Soah

Again, i'll be back. Sorry village.

[Iron_Yuppie]

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Day 1: Soah and Zurvan both vote TFG, but I think the different ways they do it is really telling. Soah didn't make up his mind until late in the day, where he then chose TFG. Zurvan voted TFG early, then got off him (for clown), then tried to get people to switch to clown, and then made a last second vote for TFG. I really don't think Zurvan felt he could do anything else, especially given his "no coinflippaments" post.

zurvan > soah, for now. But I should probably do more reading, since I'm 50% dead tonight.

Also, I like lastchance for the role of the godfather.

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if zurvan is wolf, he wins.

it was 7 gt1t vs 6 tfg

why would he vote tfg at 10:00? i just can't fathom him doing it as a wolf. if tfg is vanilla? sure. but not as sauron. i just can't imagine it...

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What else could Zurvan do? He couldn't pretend to not be around, as he was pushing clown pretty hard. And he voted TFG earlier that day, so it would look pretty suspicious to vote GT1T over TFG at the end.

Not to mention, dmk, that (at least) one of Zurvan, you, and soah is a wolf. So, if you are not a wolf, that means a late TFG voter (soah or Zurvan) is. I think the manner in which Zurvan did it is more wolfy than the manner in which soah did it.

Maybe all of this is silly, and I should just take the easy way out by lynching dmk. But reading him on that day too, he just feels like such a villager.

[lastchance]

Zurvan feels like such a villager to me. Meh.

[Zurvan]

There's really no way for me to defend voting for one of the power wolves to throw it to coin flip at the end of day 1, after suspecting him earlier in the day.

Let me try to recreate the timeline.

TFG makes a classic wolf post. I vote him.

Clown makes many much wolfier posts, so I switch to him.

TFG looks better after the early bad posts, and I want clown lynched more than him.

It looks like clown has a chance to go, with traz pushing a TFG alternative, and hinting at clown being one of his choices.

Once it becomes clear that it was TFG or GT1T, I voted for the one I thought could be a wolf, not the one I was sure was a villager.

If that's wolfy, there's no way to defend myself.

Fact: At least one of myself, dmk & soah is a wolf.
Fact: Two of us will be lynched over the next two days.
Speculation: One of LC/Stephen is the Godfather
Speculation: Unless we run villager/villager over the next two days, one of myself, dmk or soah will end up in the Final 3 with the two peeked villagers, which contains the Godfather.

Soah has done something that I've identified as a late game wolf tell of his. I'm not going to point it out for him.

However, Lastchance has done a good job of convincing me that he's the Godfather, and dmk is the other wolf.

Given the choice, I lynch soah > dmk > lastchance

[lastchance]

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Soah has done something that I've identified as a late game wolf tell of his. I'm not going to point it out for him.

However, Lastchance has done a good job of convincing me that he's the Godfather, and dmk is the other wolf.

Given the choice, I lynch soah > dmk > lastchance

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Umm... explain this one?

[Zurvan]

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Soah has done something that I've identified as a late game wolf tell of his. I'm not going to point it out for him.

However, Lastchance has done a good job of convincing me that he's the Godfather, and dmk is the other wolf.

Given the choice, I lynch soah > dmk > lastchance

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Umm... explain this one?

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Explain what?

Soah has what I consider to be a wolf tell that manifests in the late game. I've seen it this weekend.

If I'm wrong on soah, which is possible, then your actions today in regards to dmk make you two look like a pretty reasonable team.

If I'm right on soah, I still think we have to lynch dmk next, because it's totally unreasonable to lynch a peeked villager before an unpeeked.

In a final 3 of me/you/stephen, I know that the Godfather has been peeked, and I think it's you.

[Stephen H]

I'm about partway through day 2. Right now:

dmk > soah >>>>> zurvan

I wouldn't be surprised at dmk/lastchance.

I'll Vote DMK for now but I'm still going along. I could be convinced it's soah, but there's about 0% chance I'm going zurvan today.

[lastchance]

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If I'm right on soah, I still think we have to lynch dmk next, because it's totally unreasonable to lynch a peeked villager before an unpeeked.


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Just one thing. I disagree here. If there's only a godfather left, then mathematically, a peeked villager (or anyone) has the same chance of being a wolf than an unpeeked villager. So, with only a godfather left, I don't think seer peeks matter.

And yes, I realize the above might get me lynched. -_-