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#171
11-23-2005, 03:51 PM
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Re: Tuan Le and The Grinder
[ QUOTE ]
I do not know their arrangement but I’m sure its lucrative for both parties. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know their arrangement, but I'm not at all sure it's lucrative for his backer. And I'm not saying one thing about Grinder's play. The fact is, a lot of these backing arrangements I hear about (mostly second hand, in the interest of full disclosure) can't possibly be profitable for the backer no matter how well his horse plays. For instance, if Grinder did indeed get 100% staked, yet got to keep 40-50% of his big win... that is highly suggestive to me that his backer is taking way the worst of it. 
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#172
11-23-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: Tuan Le and The Grinder
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I do not know their arrangement but I’m sure its lucrative for both parties. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know their arrangement, but I'm not at all sure it's lucrative for his backer. And I'm not saying one thing about Grinder's play. The fact is, a lot of these backing arrangements I hear about (mostly second hand, in the interest of full disclosure) can't possibly be profitable for the backer no matter how well his horse plays. For instance, if Grinder did indeed get 100% staked, yet got to keep 40-50% of his big win... that is highly suggestive to me that his backer is taking way the worst of it. [/ QUOTE ] Taking way the worst of it <> unprofitable. Just because the risk/reward ratio is undesirable, doesn't mean he isn't making money on the deal.
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#173
11-23-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: Tuan Le and The Grinder
[ QUOTE ]
Taking way the worst of it <> unprofitable. Just because the risk/reward ratio is undesirable, doesn't mean he isn't making money on the deal. [/ QUOTE ] The way I intended it, "taking way the worst of it" did mean literally unprofitable. As in -EV. To make 100% backing deals for major tournaments profitable long-term for a backer, you'd either have to give a tiny percent to the horse, put the horse on a salary (perhaps with promise of a better future deal with good results), or deduct losses against wins over literally years and years before you pay out. The backing deals where people sell percentages of themselves make a lot more sense.
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#174
11-23-2005, 04:22 PM
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Re: Tuan Le and The Grinder
Ed,
We appreciate your analysis here and comments re: EV of various backing scenarios, blah blah blah. But, look, you're a poker insider in Vegas. Please give us some hot gossip regarding who is BUSTO. Thanks
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#175
11-23-2005, 04:36 PM
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Re: Tuan Le and The Grinder
[ QUOTE ]
Ed, We appreciate your analysis here and comments re: EV of various backing scenarios, blah blah blah. But, look, you're a poker insider in Vegas. Please give us some hot gossip regarding who is BUSTO. Thanks [/ QUOTE ] Oh sorry. I heard Ed Miller is playing $3-$6 on Party. And I heard he doesn't even have the roll for that, so he sold 50% to his wife. I think the arrangement is very lucrative for both sides, though, so don't worry.
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#176
11-23-2005, 05:43 PM
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Re: Tuan Le and The Grinder
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ed, We appreciate your analysis here and comments re: EV of various backing scenarios, blah blah blah. But, look, you're a poker insider in Vegas. Please give us some hot gossip regarding who is BUSTO. Thanks [/ QUOTE ] Oh sorry. I heard Ed Miller is playing $3-$6 on Party. And I heard he doesn't even have the roll for that, so he sold 50% to his wife. I think the arrangement is very lucrative for both sides, though, so don't worry. [/ QUOTE ] so ed finally moved up in stakes? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#178
11-23-2005, 06:07 PM
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Re: Which online superstars have gone busto recently?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well not an online superstar nor a young gun. But it appears that maybe Grizzle is down & out for a bit. Last seen being put into a 300-600 game and went bust. Known for tilting off tremendous amounts. Especially when drinking. Have seen him within the last 6 months as low as 8-16 but not seen hide nor hair in 60 days or so. Just means it can happen to anyone. Maybe a course in "tiltless" from TA is in order. [/ QUOTE ] I was playing at Borgata during the WPT and a 2+2er came over to say hi. I asked him what he was playing and he said, "200/400. Sam Grizzle is playing. He's terrible." That was about 6 weeks ago. [/ QUOTE ] That could have been me, I was in that game, and he really plays terrible. If he thinks he has 6 outs he gets to the river pretty much regardless of the size of the pot. A few months earlier I saw him begging for money to get into a 100 dollar satelite in Vegas. I played too cause I thought it would be fun to play with him, and he played sorta expertly and busted out 5th or so. Talk about a guy who hates life.
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#179
11-23-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: Which online superstars have gone busto recently?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] XXRAGEDXX, chipmovr, and Jordan Berkowitz are 3 guys under 20 who have had such crazy swings. Neverwin also had a similar run up/down/up. Their ups and downs have been documented in posts here and on neverwinpoker.com. There are also multiple European kids in their teens and early twenties who have made hundreds of thousands (or more) and have managed to go broke. I'm aware of one Euro kid who was up somewhere between 500k-1M and is now in debt for about 500k. These are the types of swings that happen to guys who play in a manner to run up huge rolls starting from 5-10 and months later are playing 400-800HU. [/ QUOTE ] What's the latest on neverwin? [/ QUOTE ] No idea. Last I heard he was gonna play Dan N. in the Wynn challenge, so I assume he's been running decent. [/ QUOTE ] About 3 weeks ago I was playing Stars and NW was in the game. Medan sat down and started telling NW about this unreal 3-6 or 4-8 (dont remember) game that was going at commerce. NW then said he didnt have any cash on him, and asked to borrow like 30k, and told Medan "dont worry I have over a mil online." For all I know he had his whole bankroll on the table, but he claimed to have some dough.
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#180
11-23-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: Which online superstars have gone busto recently?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Well not an online superstar nor a young gun. But it appears that maybe Grizzle is down & out for a bit. Last seen being put into a 300-600 game and went bust. Known for tilting off tremendous amounts. Especially when drinking. Have seen him within the last 6 months as low as 8-16 but not seen hide nor hair in 60 days or so. Just means it can happen to anyone. Maybe a course in "tiltless" from TA is in order. [/ QUOTE ] I was playing at Borgata during the WPT and a 2+2er came over to say hi. I asked him what he was playing and he said, "200/400. Sam Grizzle is playing. He's terrible." That was about 6 weeks ago. [/ QUOTE ] That could have been me, I was in that game, and he really plays terrible. If he thinks he has 6 outs he gets to the river pretty much regardless of the size of the pot. A few months earlier I saw him begging for money to get into a 100 dollar satelite in Vegas. I played too cause I thought it would be fun to play with him, and he played sorta expertly and busted out 5th or so. Talk about a guy who hates life. [/ QUOTE ] Steve, Thanks for this excellent anecdote. ANYONE WHO HAS GOOD STORIES ABOUT HIGH-PROFILE PLAYERS WHO ARE BUSTO, BROKE, DESPERATE, ETC., PLEASE POST THEM HERE! The more degenerate-sounding the anecdote, the better.
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