LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring (GAME THREAD)

[Jeremy517]

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The only problem I see with Sam coming out is that the wolves know who is NOT a seer, therefore making it easier to find Frodo

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On the flip side, if he doesn't come out, there is a greater chance of a power role being killed, since there is a good chance that Aragorn won't be protecting a power role.

[traz]

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The only problem I see with Sam coming out is that the wolves know who is NOT a seer, therefore making it easier to find Frodo

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On the flip side, if he doesn't come out, there is a greater chance of a power role being killed, since there is a good chance that Aragorn won't be protecting a power role.

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There is almost the exact same chance, if aragorn is stuck protecting Sam.

True, the benefit is that Sam won't be killed. But all other roles are just as vulnerable, and arguably a little more.

[Neil S]

Better they kill Sam than Frodo, Gandalf, or Aragorn. Not all power roles are created equal.

[GetThere1Time]

oh were still on the strategy chat portion of the day. awesome.

[Nez477]

Looks as if Neil, Nich and most importantly Herb are villagers this game. That will be good for us.

Herbie, trust me once. You never agree with me.

[dmk]

no one thinks i'm villa? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[amplify]

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oh were still on the strategy chat portion of the day. awesome.

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We'll be moving on to random accusations after high tea.

[amplify]

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no one thinks i'm villa? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I do [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Nez477]

Hi Amp,

How are you?

I am villager, and TFG is not. Thoughts?

[Jeremy517]

OK I'll just say Frodo, Gandalf, Sam, and Aragorn are the power roles. The other named roles don't matter. Someone check my math.

If we lynch vanillager today, wolves eat vanillager tonight, Sam comes out tomorrow, we lynch vanillager tomorrow:

If Sam comes out - Aragorn protects Sam. 3/16 chance that wolf kills any power role other than Sam, 1/16 that Frodo is killed.

If Sam doesn't come out tomorrow: 4/17 chance of killing a power role including Sam, 1/17 chance of killing Frodo.

That would be only a 0.3% increase in the odds that Frodo dies, but it would cut the chance that any of the four power roles dies by 4.8%.

It seems to me that if Sam comes out, the wolves might eat the person Sam confirms, unless there is no chance that the person Sam confirms is one of those four roles. Sam will always say the confirmed is a vanillager, so.... I think it might be best if Sam only comes out if Frodo peeked a vanillager or a wolf, but not if he peeks a power role.

But I could be way off on this.