Player Discussion

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi excession:

So what? You may be right on every count. Again, all I did was attempt to show that there is a strategy available to Player A who holds the ace-queen suited that can show a profit in this situation.

Best wishes,
Mason

[SunOfBeach]

[ QUOTE ]
all I did was attempt to show that there is a strategy available to Player A who holds the ace-queen suited that can show a profit in this situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

which begs the question, "why on earth are you doing this"? surely that does nothing towards defending your original hypothesis.

[Mark1808]

There are a lot of what ifs, as is the case with NL. The bottom line is that for typical play where the JJ makes a continuation bet on the flop AQ is getting 4-1 on his pre flop call for a 2-1 shot at hitting the flop, a good bet.

Now, do the what ifs reduce the strong plus EV? Well with a preflop raise to $150 if the AQ hits and the J also flops it might be pretty easy for AQ to get away from a lot of aggression, after all what hands raise to $150, get called and then go bisirk when an A, Q or J hits the flop. One pair no good, as they say.

The example does not set out to try and prove that AQ is better than JJ, it shows forward thinking about betting patterns, pot odds and making plus EV plays.

Also, please notice how much easier it is for everyone to raise and go all in on various situations on this board versus real play. I even originally posted that if JJ made a continuation bet and a Q flopped to my AQ I would raise, which after a pre flop raise of $150 is highly unlikely as I would fear AA, KK or maybe QQ. A solid player is not going to go crazy with JJ when over cards hits and the opponent shows strength or ultimately he will be a losing player.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mark:

I don't disagree with anything you say. All I did was try to show that there is a strategy available to Player A who holds the ace-queen suited that is a profitable strategy. This doesn't mean that there aren't other such strategies available.

Best wishes,
Mason

[excession]

'the jacks would be better, but if they each had chips left, which was the case here, the ace-queen suited was better...'

that seems to be going a lot further than just saying that AQs player 'has profitable strategies available' - in effect you're trying to prove mathematically that (a) AQs OOP in a re-raised pot when you aren't the re-raiser is better than (b) having JJ in position in a re-raised pot when you are the re-raiser. The trouble is empirically that this isn't the case, as I'm sure all our experience and PT stats would clearly demonstrate..so something is wrong..

Further you're not taking into account number of players, reads, betting history, actual position or stack sizes...so any NL player is immediately suspicious that you simply don't have enough information in the system to draw any relevant conclusions

[KaneKungFu123]

Mason,

You analysis is taking way too many liberties in declaring who will bet when, where and how much.

[slickpoppa]

Mason, the problem with your analysis is that you cannot assume that you are up against specifically JJ. As you said:

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Everyone:

The question isn't whether jacks is better than ace-queen suited. If you raise with ace-queen suited and get a good sized reraise, as long as the player is playing somewhat rationally you have to fold.

The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have. (Of course in reality if you hold the ace-queen you don't know that your opponent holds precisely jacks and vice-versa.)

Here's a hint. In almost all cases the ace-queen will check the flop and the player holding the jacks will bet probably somewhere between half the pot to the whole pot.

Best wishes,
Mason


[/ QUOTE ]

But in your analysis you assumed that you were up against JJ. Obviously the more relevant question, which you even stated yourself, is whether AQ or JJ is better against your opponents range of reraising hands (presumably something along the lines of AA-JJ, AK). So in order to really answer the question you would have to calculate the EV of AQs against JJ-AA, AK, and then compare that to the EV of JJ against that range and see which hand does better.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi slickpoppa:

I don't disagree, but that wasn't the question that was poised.

best wishes,
Mason

[catlover]

Mason -- what if the Jacks respond to your strategy for AQ by potting the flop and turn every single time, no matter what -- but folding if raised unless they had improved?

I'm not claiming this is an optimal strategy for the jacks in all situations. I am claiming that it would crush your AQ strategy, and the way in which they do so illustrates that there is more work to be done here.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi catlover:

This was addressed in my analysis.

best wishes,
Mason