Official Barry Bonds Countdown Thread

[RedBean]

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2) ARod hits 100+ Home Runs


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He needs more than that.

Consider this..

If we took A-Rod's best season for EqA, (adjusted for season, not lifetime), which is .339 in 2005.

He hit 48 homers.

Let's give him another 52 homers to make it an even 100.

That's adding 52 at-bats, 52 homers, and 208 total bases.

WITHOUT ADDING A SINGLE OUT. (nice streak, 52-52, 52 HR's...)

<u>Remember</u> we're taking A-rod's BEST season total for EqA, and adding 52 homers...

That brings him up to .427 for that year, adjusted for that season.

In Bond's last 4 seasons playing injury free he posted these:

.457
.412
.453
.427

So, even adding a 52-for-52 ALL homerun streak on top of A-Rods best EqA season to achieve 100HR's...he only surpasses <u>one</u> of Bonds last 4 healthy seasons.

I would have took this bet even if I had to spot A-Rod 20 homeruns.

[Scary_Tiger]

When I said protection was overrated, I meant in the sense that having no protection has helped Bond's OPS which is what Thremp is implying. If they actually pitched to him, his OPS would be higher still.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

I don't think any intelligent person would argue peak Arod was a better hitter than peak Bonds, but don't you need to discount Bonds for injury?

[RedBean]

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I don't think any intelligent person would argue peak Arod was a better hitter than peak Bonds, but don't you need to discount Bonds for injury?

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Of course no one would argue that...but we're discussing peak A-rod versus present day, 43-year old Bonds.

Am I factoring in the recent injury? Well, he *is* two years removed from it, and can leverage his lower body much better than he could last year (they always said it took about 18 months to heal that type of injury, and last year he was diminished)....but then again, he ain't no spring chicken here, and the effects of age + injury certainly means the days of peak Bonds are gone...

BUT...injury or no...my point is simply that Bonds could roll out of bed, show up to the park using a broomstick for a bat, and match comparable EqA to peak A-rod...simply because of the edge I find in how it is calculated and how the two perform on the field.

EqA is a great stat for prop bets like this when people don't realize the hidden values and how Bonds amasses EqA equity seemingly out of thin air.

Consider, last year Arod posted a .319 EqA adjusted for all-time.

The last time Barry was around those parts we have to dig all the way back to 1988, when Reagan was President, and Bonds posted an all-time adjusted EqA of .316

He hit .283 with 24 homers that year. He batted leadoff. For the Pirates. Back when Michael Jackson was Black.

Do I think Bonds can reach .330-340 EqA this year? In his sleep.

Injury? Pfft...he could get a .319 EqA in a wheelchair, he doesn't even need knees to do that.

Obviously, the days of .450+ EqA are gone....but .380-390 is definately reachable for Bonds, and definately going to take an unprecedented effort for A-rod to match.

[SirArthur]

Thought this was an interesting stat/comparison:

Barry Bonds has been walked intentionally 654 times in his career.
A Rod has been intentionally walked 60 times in his career.

Yes of course I know Bonds has been around alot longer, but the bulk of his INT's has been post A Rod's rookie season.

In 2004 Bonds int. walked 120 times, twice as many as A rods entire career.

This year Bonds has been INT'ed 9 times to A rod's one time.

[Thremp]

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Thremp,

Do you really think teams wouldn't walk Bonds if he had a good hitter behind him? The only time they wouldn't walk him was if you had someone truly great. Furthermore, if they didn't want to walk him he'd be teeing off the crappy pitches he'd force them to make by taking the borderline pitches and getting into good counts.

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No, I don't think that it'd really make much of a difference. But isn't OPS a rate stat that gets beefed up by a bunch of additional IBB... So if he did swing at all these... He'd get his avg*slg... Okay... I'm wrong.

[SirArthur]

He just hit #744 on the first pitch he saw of the day off of Jon Lieber, his 10th of the season.
It went about 440 feet to just right of center.

Let's see if he has a multi homer game...

[Karak567]

Charlie Manuel IBBs him with 2 outs no one on last night... and now does it today with 0 outs a man on third.

Maybe you were right about this EqA bet if Bonds keeps playing moron managers.

[SirArthur]

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Charlie Manuel IBBs him with 2 outs no one on last night... and now does it today with 0 outs a man on third.

Maybe you were right about this EqA bet if Bonds keeps playing moron managers.

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Moron managers is right. Over the years, that strategy backfires so much it's amazing they keep doing it.
Atleast go after him on the outside corner, sometimes Bonds gets frustrated &amp; will chase out there.

Two outs nobody on down 3-2?? The Phillies put him on?

Bonds walked twice last night, and both started 3 run rallies. Giants score 3 in 7th &amp; 8th to win 6-2.

[SirArthur]

Not given a chance for a mulit homer game.

1-1 with a homer and three walks.

Three walks after his homer, one INT but they may as well have been all intentional. I think he saw one strike after his first at bat.
And oh ya, after his last walk with a runner on first, next batter singles and scores a run.