ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Random question...didn't want to start a new thread?

Is buying a baseball prospectus subscription worth it? It's $40 for a whole year.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you want it for?

[/ QUOTE ]

let me clarify. if you're strictly a fantasy player, get a one-month or two-month subscription, download the pecota sheet, use the player forecast manager, maybe check out the depth charts. their in-season fantasy analysis is not very good, and doesn't justify a subscription.

if you are interested in modern baseball analysis or like having a couple of baseball-related articles to read every day, it is absolutely worth the $40 and more.

[4 High]

[ QUOTE ]
Random question...didn't want to start a new thread?

Is buying a baseball prospectus subscription worth it? It's $40 for a whole year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have it and love it. I use it for Fantasy, news and analysis.

[suppasonic]

[ QUOTE ]


trying to keep my criticisms to a minimum:

- anyone from 2-8 is absolutely not 'about equal'. i see the same error made every year in fantasy football, where people argue they would rather have a late pick so they can have two solid starting running backs. the talent curve is steepest in round 1. always has been, always will be. it is important to get your round 1 pick right.

howard was probably a poor choice over someone from the group of pujols, santana, soriano, reyes.

- there is nothing wrong with taking non-santana pitchers if they are good values. it is wrong to enter your draft with the mentality that you will not take a pitcher under any circumstances with a certain pick. you are simply passing up value if you refuse to take peavy at 46.

if he says to himself before the draft "i'm taking pitchers with my third and fourth picks," that is a mistake.

- there is nothing wrong with taking a catcher early. their numbers might not look great, but the combination of a .300-25-90 catcher and a late-round first baseman is usually better than a .310-30-100 first baseman and late-round catcher.

- clearly you are okay with punting a category now. i thought your stance on that was well established?

- though steals are slightly more inconsistent than homers--because your speedster could be facing mike piazza for a series--this is not nearly as big a factor as it is made out to be. would anyone really have been better off in last year's h2h with a 'consistent' power hitter like chris shelton or adam dunn? dunn might have single-handedly killed your team in the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go ahead with the criticisms, its one of my favorite parts of fantasy. I love the arguing over different stategies and players [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-The way I see it, from 2-8, you have A-Rod, Reyes, Howard, Santana, Ortiz, Soriano, and MCab. While some have less arguements than others, I think these guys are all pretty close in value.

-I completely agree with not coming in with a mentality of what you are going to/not going to do. However, I had the bigger problem with taking two pitchers consecutively early than one. I usually take my first pitcher in late 4th, 5th, early 6th, then offense until I feel I'm getting my moneys worth for pitchers. I, for example, think 48 for Peavy would be just about right, I dont think its great value by any means, but about equal.

-I myself would much rather have, say, Damon and Martin/Posada/Hernadez than McCann/Mauer and Eric Byrnes. To each his own.

- While I'm not in favor of punting categories by say, not drafting any relievers or any speedsters, one can get away with shirking SBs in H2H. Generally, your typically speedster will have high SB and good R. An equally ranked power hitter however, will have high R, RBI, and HR. .avg fluctuates depending on the player. It's a waste of a roster spot in H2H, I think, to have more then two speedster types (Pierre, Roberts, Lopez, Pods, etc.), preferably just one, if it is at the expense of power. While now that I think about it Grady, Roberts, and Lopez isn't quite overkill, I think one would be fine with say, 40 from lopez, then 10 from Martin, 10 from Lee, and 10 from Pujols. Its not punting, but rather you dont need to make sure you get your speed in H2H like you do in Roto.

-Because you get your steals usually from two or so players primarily, if they have bad weeks, or even average ones, you lose SB. If you have Adam Dunn, and he has a bad week, well, you still have Pronk, Carlos Lee, Andruw Jones, and Prince Fielder to pick up the slack. You dont have that slack with SB threats. Thats why they are less trustworthy than power.

[suppasonic]

[ QUOTE ]

Josh Barfield
Eric Chavez
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz
Corey Patterson
Mark Teahen
Miguel Tejada
B.J. Upton
Dave Bush
Jose Contreras
Freddy Garcia
Jason Isringhausen
Mark Mulder
Brett Myers
Billy Wagner
Barry Zito

As you can probably see, my pitching staff killed me last year. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so apparently the league voted to up the keepers to 15 (it just keeps getting worse) does this change anything? Who should I go with now? I'm half considering using this year as a youth movement, and trying to get a bunch of young talent to go forward with from here on out.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be my 15.

[4 High]

15 Player Keeper 14 Team League Mixed League Rottis with the following cats. Below that is my roster. Who do i keep?

R
H
1B
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
TB
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS

APP
W
CG
SHO
SV
K
GIDP
HLD
ERA
WHIP
K/BB
K/9

Bobby Abreu (NYY - RF)
Yuniesky Betancourt (Sea - 2B,SS)
Hank Blalock (Tex - 3B)
Milton Bradley (Oak - CF,RF)
Eric Byrnes (Ari - LF,CF,RF)
Jorge Cantú (TB - 2B,3B)
Carl Crawford (TB - LF,CF)
Coco Crisp (Bos - LF,CF)
Shawn Green (NYM - 1B,CF,RF)
José Guillén (Sea - RF)
Aaron Hill (Tor - 2B,3B,SS)
Shea Hillenbrand (LAA - 1B,3B)
Eric Hinske (Bos - 1B,3B,RF)
Howie Kendrick (LAA - 1B,2B)
Víctor Martínez (Cle - C,1B)
Bill Mueller (LAD - 2B,3B)
Jorge Posada (NYY - C)
Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B)
Omar Vizquel (SF - SS) 171/579
Kevin Youkilis (Bos - 1B,3B,LF)

Pitching

Erik Bedard (Bal - SP)
Matt Cain (SF - SP)
Bartolo Colón (LAA - SP)
Juan Cruz (Ari - SP,RP)
Zach Duke (Pit - SP)
Eric Gagne (Tex - RP)
Félix Hernández (Sea - SP)
Tim Hudson (Atl - SP)
John Lackey (LAA - SP)
Ted Lilly (ChC - SP)
Brandon McCarthy (Tex - SP,RP)
Gil Meche (KC - SP)
Mark Mulder (StL - SP)
Mark Prior (ChC - SP)
Johan Santana (Min - SP)

I had this lined up, but i think i might be able to change a few.

C - Victor Martinez
2B - Jorge Cantu, Brian Roberts, Howie Kendrick
3B - Hank Blalock
OF - Carl Crawford, Bobby Abreau, Coco Crisp

SP - Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, John Lackey, Johan
Santana, Mark Prior, Erik Bedard
RP - Eric Gagne

[Sluss]

I had all kinds of problems with this league last year. I was able to pick a lot of good hitters early when everyone else was drafting pitchers. I drafted alot of set-up guys and got alot of holds. While I started off well, I couldn't find a quality start and was forced to watch as my team fell apart due to injuries. So what is the best drafting and play strategy for a league like this?



Positions (active max): C (2), 1B(1), 2B(1), 3B(1), SS(1), OF(3), U(2), SP(5) and RP(3)

Limits For Games Played Per Position:
C 81
1B 162
2B 162
3B 162
SS 162
OF 162
U 162
SP 33
RP 54




Scoring: Ranked, Points Based System.


Scoring for Batting Categories
1B - Singles 1 point
2B - Doubles 2 points
3B - Triples 3 points
BB - Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS - Caught Stealing -1 point
CYC - Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
E - Errors -1 point
GDP - Ground Into Double Plays -1 point
HP - Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR - Home Runs 4 points
KO - Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
OFAST - OF Assists 1 point
PBC - Passed Balls by Catcher -1 point
R - Runs 1 point
RBI - Runs Batted In 1 point
SB - Stolen Bases 2 points
SF - Sacrifice Flies 1 point
SH - Sacrifice Hits 1 point

Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
BS - Blown Saves -5 points
CG - Complete Games 5 points
ER - Earned Runs -1 point
HA - Hits Allowed -1 point
HB - Hit Batsmen -1 point
HD - Holds 10 points
HRA - Home Runs Allowed -1 point
INN - Innings 3 points
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L - Losses -5 points
NH - No-Hitters 20 points
PG - Perfect Games 50 points
PKO - Pick Offs 1 point
S - Saves 10 points
SO - Shutouts 5 points
W - Wins 10 points
WP - Wild Pitches -1 point

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I had all kinds of problems with this league last year. I was able to pick a lot of good hitters early when everyone else was drafting pitchers. I drafted alot of set-up guys and got alot of holds. While I started off well, I couldn't find a quality start and was forced to watch as my team fell apart due to injuries. So what is the best drafting and play strategy for a league like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

haven't you guys ever heard of K.I.S.S.? i'm not sure the normal league setups are optimal, but they're sure as hell easier and more fun than this.

just comparing between this league and a 5x5:

obviously the first adjustment is to devalue catchers by a ton, unless you have the ability to start one guy for 162 games instead.

closers are worth a ton less because holds and saves are equal and there's a 54 game limit for relievers.

power hitters gain a lot of value compared to steals guys because extra base hits gain value and steals lose value, especially considering the negative value attached to CS.

guys with good plate discipline gain a significant amount at the expense of the wily mo penas of the world.

hypothetically speaking, i would think 220 mediocre innings from one of your starters would be better than 160 good innings in this setup. i haven't actually worked this out, so it may not be correct, but you get the idea. draft livan hernandez over mark prior.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
15 Player Keeper 14 Team League Mixed League Rottis with the following cats. Below that is my roster. Who do i keep?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd like to help, but this is really too many categories for me to work out in my head. this is a good question for:

www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/pfm

[MikeyPatriot]

Long running AL-only auction roto league with the following categories:

AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB
W, SO, ERA, SV, WHIP

My dad has been in this league since it started (basically since I was born 22 years ago) and now that he runs a business, I've basically taken over the team. It's traditionally a 12 team league, but it's been at 11 for the past few years. 23 roster spots (traditional 8 pos players, 2 backup OF, corner IF, middle IF, DH, 9 pitchers) with a $26 salary to be used up on draft day. Quick explanation on contracts. "A" contracts must be thrown back. "B" contracts may be kept for one more year or offered a long term contract (.50 for each additional year you want to keep the player. I.E. if I have Delmon Young for .30 next year, want to keep him for three years, his new contract is .30 + .50 + .50 or 1.30 per year. There is also a signing bonus, but that doesn't count against the cap). C contracts become B contracts next year. All non-long term contract players can be released at no penalty.

So...my team currently looks like this (some teams might be wrong, the league file is from last year):

OF Willy Mo Pena BOS .20 C
OF Bobby Kielty OAK 1.00 C
OF Curtis Granderson DET .50 B
OF Reed Johnson TOR 1.00 A
OF Delmon Young TB .50 C
1B Kevin Youkilis BOS .90 C
2B Marco Scutaro OAK .10 B
3B Eric Chavez OAK 3.30 B
SS Bobby Crosby OAK 1.90 C
CI Andy Marte CLE .50 C
MI Jhonny Peralta CLE 1.00 B
C1 Jason Kendall OAK 1.20 B
C2 Jose Melina LAA .10 B
DH Bernie Williams NYY .80 B

P Javier Vazquez 1.80 C
P Brandon McCarthy .50 B
P Esteban Loaiza .80 C
P Francisco Liriano 1.20 C
P Neal Cotts .40 C
P Jeremy Sowers CLE .50 C
P Hector Carrasco LAA 1.00 C
P Letroy Hawkins COL .30 C
P Brad Halsey OAK 1.00 C

Reserves (minor leaguers/guys hurt)
Hee Sop Choi TB .10 C
Aaron Small NYY .10 C
Zack Greinke KC .10 C

Here are some of the big name A contracts:

Vladimir Guerrero
Jason Westbrook
Coco Crisp
Reed Johnson
Alex Rios
Derek Jeter
Melvin Mora
Joe Nathan
Jeremy Bonderman
Jermanie Dye
Bobby Abreu
Mark Buehrle
Johnny Damon

Other big names may or may not get thrown back.

To give you some examples of the contract sizes of players:

Alex Rodriguez 3.80
David Ortiz 3.60
Mariano Rivera 4.00
Ichiro Suzuki 5.00

Most superstars go between 3.5-4.5. Depending on draft conditions, some players will get more (Ichiro, for example). The guys in the league are pretty knowledgeable, almost all have been doing this for as long as I can remember. They sometimes overvalue White Sox players and veterans, and sometimes undervalue up and comers. Last year was bad for our team as my dad was grieving with the death of his wife + purchasing a business and I was asked to draft for him last minute. This year, I plan to be way better prepared.

ANYWAY, my initial plans:

KEEP
Willy mo Pena
Curtis Granderson
Delmon Young
Kevin Youkilis
Andy Marte
Jhonny Peralta
Jose Melina

Brandon McCarthy
Francisco Liriano [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Jeremy Sowers

DUMP

Reed Johnson
Marco Scutaro
Bobby Crosby
Jason Kendall
Bernie Williams

Neal Cotts
Latroy Hawkins

UNSURE

Eric Chavez
Javier Vazquez
Hector Carrasco
Brad Halsey

I think Chavez is a keeper because he has a reasonable contract at a scarce position. Vazquez is probably OK because he'll give me a ton of innings + strikeouts and has a good shot to win ~10 games playing for the Sox. I could go either way with Carrasco, and Halsey leans towards a dump.

If you read through this all and still want to give advice, thanks.

[LBJ]

Grade my draft. It's a different league, so definitly take in the categories to the overall grade. 1st year of a keeper league, you keep 6 total guys (2 from the first 4 rounds, 3 from the rest of the draft, and 1 rookie of the year eligible player).

Offense: R, 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, SB, K, AVG
Pitching: W, ERA, K, SV, WHIP, CG

10 team league, 1st overall pick.

C- J. Mauer (3)
1b- A. Pujols (1)
2b- H. Kendrick (7)
3b- S. Rolen (10)
SS- B. Hall (6)
OF- M. Holliday (2)
OF- C. Young (11)
U- I. Kinsler (13)
U- A. Gonzalez (14)

SP- B. Webb (4)
SP- B. Sheets (5)
SP- Jered Weaver (8)
SP- AJ Burnett (12)
RP- Billy Wagner (9)
RP- Bobby Jenks (15)

B- I. Snell (16)
B- E. Gagne (17)
B- M. Teahen (18)
B- C. Tracy (19)
B- F. Thomas (20)
B- A. Reyes (21)

With the 2 keepers in the 1st 4 rounds rule, I found myself at an interesting position in rounds 4 and 5. The picks were back to back and I was choosing Webb and Sheets to anchor my SPs. Which would you have chosen in the 4th and which in the 5th. The one chosen later is obviously the more keepable one. They are both the same age (28) and have similar stats and projections.