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#151
09-27-2006, 06:38 PM
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Re: A premature exclamation ?
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May I ask what the general scope of actual jobs in Washington is? Are you staffers? Don't get too detailed, especially as I was just curious. I've always been fascinated by politics. Maybe in my next life [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] For the same reasons as given by Berge, I am going to decline to answer. I will say, however, that I am not a paid employee of any branch of the federal government. |
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#153
09-27-2006, 06:50 PM
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Re: 1 in 5 odds?
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This has gotten pretty scary if both you and Nate give it a .4 unconditional probability. That number is very high and says a lot can happen in the next two days. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW, here is how I came up with that number. I figure there's about a 10% chance that some form of the legislation passes this week. Others can disagree but I don't see Specter and the Dems rolling on DHS, and I don't see GOP leadership being anywhere near organized enough to broker some kind of overarching deal. Also, we aren't 100% sure that Frist is targeting the DHS bill anyway. Certainly, there is some probablity of one of these bad things happening, along with other backdoor routes that Frist might attempt, but that's my assessment of the situation. Post-midterms ... if we get there ... the two things we have learned within the past 7-10 days are that: (i) Frist is genuinely determined about this issue, at least for right now. (ii) There is higher-than-usual resistance to non-germane legislation being attached, at least for right now. To what extent these two things hold after the elections I'm not certain, but I'd guesstimate that: - there is a 2/3 chance that Frist makes a serious attempt to push this legislation in the lame duck session if the GOP retains both chambers, and a 2/3 chance that he succeeds if he makes the attempt (44% total). - there is a 1/2 chance that Frist makes a serious attempt to push this legislation in the lame duck session if the Dems win one or both chambers, and a 3/10 chance that he succeeds (15% total). Of course there are some in-betweens there ... if there's a 1994-style takeover by Dems then Frist will be tarred & feathered by both parties and I don't see him getting any parting gifts ... if the Republicans manage to maintain or even add to their margins then they'll take that as a mandate to do whatever they want ... if there are a couple of disputed election results a la 2000 (not at all unlikely IMO) then almost nothing will get done in the lame duck session except what absolutely has to get done to keep the government running. And the results of individual races (AZ Senate, IA House, perhaps TN Senate if it's taken as a referrendum on Frist) may matter too. But those are the two base cases. Republicans right now have about a 50% chance of holding on to both chambers, per Tradesports. Combining all those probabilities yields 36.5%, with a +/- of at least 10%. |
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