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| View Poll Results: who likes | |||
| check/call |
   
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1 | 8.33% |
| bet/call |
  
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5 | 41.67% |
| bet/3b |
  
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5 | 41.67% |
| check/raise |
  
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1 | 8.33% |
| bet/fold (NITS) |
  
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0 | 0% |
| Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#1511
10-10-2007, 07:37 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How do I set up the math to figure out how often villain has to fold to Cha's $3.50 bet assuming villain actually is ahead 60% of the time, and of course villain never calls with a losing hand? [/ QUOTE ] expectation of a bet = (times he folds * pot we win) - (times he calls * how much we bet and lose) E(bet) = (Fw * 4.25) - (Cw * 3.50) = 0 (for breakeven point) Fw = % villain folds winning hand Cw = % villain calls winning hand Cw + Fw = 1 [/ QUOTE ] Thank you very much. So can I just set the right side of the equation = 1.70 in order to find out how often the villain needs to fold in order for betting with the worst hand to be equal to checking behind? 
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#1512
10-10-2007, 07:53 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com SB ($23.60) BB ($39.05) UTG ($11.25) MP ($25) CO ($27.80) jb ($27.75) Preflop: jb is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">jb raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75. Flop: ($2.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, jb checks. Turn: ($2.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1</font>, jb calls $1. River: ($4.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, jb...? Villain is 22/16/11 over 76 and seems tricky Not sure it's correct, but here's my thinking: I check behind on the flop because it hits a lot of calling hands plus villain is aggressive and tricky and I don't want to have to fold to a c/r with two overs and a gutshot. The turn card is scary but there is a decent chance I have the best hand and his bet is small. I think raising has little value so I just call. I was expecting to be forced to a decision on the river and am surprised he just checks. Would you now normally bet for value here? [/ QUOTE ] JB, I'm a big fan of keeping your decisions simple. I basically always cbet here. I have no problem folding to a c/r since like no villans will do that as a bluff on this board. I see that almost exclusively on rag non-broadway flops or paired flops. Also, you do realize you don't have a gutshot here. Just two overs with a backdoor straight draw. I think there's more value to trying to take the pot down right away. 76 hands isn't very many hands to know how a 22/16 player is being tricky imo. Unless you've seen him show down a couple hands that tell you how he's mixing it up (and you've made a note on these hands) its much better to play straightforward and leave yourself with easy decisions at this level since you gain so much simply because you're opponents will make more mistakes than you. His turn range could be his entire range here. You've hit a queen so I think raising it to $4 is fine in order to charge four flush or straight draws. imo putting in a raise on the turn has more value than waiting to put in a raise on the river.
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#1513
10-10-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
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Also, you do realize you don't have a gutshot here. Just two overs with a backdoor straight draw. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm, yeah - I knew that. Just trying to make sure you guys are paying attention. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#1514
10-10-2007, 08:06 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Also, you do realize you don't have a gutshot here. Just two overs with a backdoor straight draw. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm, yeah - I knew that. Just trying to make sure you guys are paying attention. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] np, I also agree with microbet that this is a checkable flop. I would probably not cbet oop against an opponent that likes to float.
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#1515
10-10-2007, 08:08 PM
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Re: $25NL JJ in BB vs shorty...
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[ QUOTE ] Karp, Hand #1 I'd usually fold pf based on sb's stack and the limper. But I'd consider raising it on the button (I think you are CO on the hand). Postflop I'd slowwwww down on a paired board, look for an opportunity to value bet later if the hand slows down with you but I'd def call the turn minraise - even tho I f'ing hate minraisers. Play the river accordingly but I wouldn't be killing myself to get allin. [/ QUOTE ] One thing I dont understand. Villain is far more likely to have trips than a FH. Wouldnt I need to protect my flush by 3betting? [/ QUOTE ] You can, but he told you something with the minraise. All I'm saying is that when I hit a hand and get raised and I don't have the nuts, I slow down sometimes until and when I figure out how far ahead or behind I am. I'm not saying your line is bad, its probably standard besides preflop, I'm just saying he has a really wide range after limping preflop and in the hand you need to figure it out. J9 isn't what you'd expect here but 99 and 66 are possible as is Ahxh and AJ or KJ/JT etc. I agree with ChrisV on this, I'm probably going broke but I'm unlikely to be the one shoving.
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#1516
10-10-2007, 09:40 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] DevinLake...I datamine quite a lot. Is there a stat in PO's HUD that can determine one as bad preflop player who can fold post flop (or say combo-stats)? [/ QUOTE ] High VPIP with low PFR and high Folds to Continuation Bet. (or low Calls Continuation Bet) [/ QUOTE ] Those stats dont exist in PO [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] That sucks. Cause they're the stats I use. [/ QUOTE ] Once GtrHtr told me about ways to take advantage of using these c-bet stats, I fell in love with them. Buying poker tracker with poker ace is worth the c-bet stats alone.
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#1518
10-10-2007, 09:50 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
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wanna share the ideas on how best to use the c-bet stats? HM has 3-bet stats.... which will be awesome. [/ QUOTE ] If they call cbets a lot, cbet less or double barrel more. If they call cbets sparingly, cbet liberally.
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#1519
10-10-2007, 09:52 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
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[ QUOTE ] wanna share the ideas on how best to use the c-bet stats? HM has 3-bet stats.... which will be awesome. [/ QUOTE ] If they call cbets a lot, cbet less or double barrel more. If they call cbets sparingly, cbet liberally. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, once you get used to seeing those stats, it becomes easy to figure out what to do with them.
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#1520
10-10-2007, 11:54 PM
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] DevinLake...I datamine quite a lot. Is there a stat in PO's HUD that can determine one as bad preflop player who can fold post flop (or say combo-stats)? [/ QUOTE ] High VPIP with low PFR and high Folds to Continuation Bet. (or low Calls Continuation Bet) [/ QUOTE ] Those stats dont exist in PO [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] That sucks. Cause they're the stats I use. [/ QUOTE ] Once GtrHtr told me about ways to take advantage of using these c-bet stats, I fell in love with them. Buying poker tracker with poker ace is worth the c-bet stats alone. [/ QUOTE ] I did that? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] All my secrets.......
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