MONSTER variance (w/ graphs) - Page 15

kahntrutahn · #**141** 05-24-2007, 08:25 PM

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it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

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I glossed over this the first time I read it, but really, you have no clue what games were like at high stakes 2-3 years ago.

2-3 years ago on Interpoker, if you were to put how I play today into those lineups, I would often be the weak-tight passive player.

IMO, as far as LHE goes, those games were the first of the LAG short handed games, with lineups consisting of the likes of mostly Scandinavian LAGs such as Jarle, Keyser, TLK, Max Muller, and to a lesser LAG extent, Lagerborg. These were often the games Tommy and I were playing in, and to comment on games from years ago that you have no clue about doesn't add anything to the discussion -- cuz frankly, I think the old Crytpo games were often more aggro than the ones we play in today.

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I sat in a few of those games towards the end of their cycle I guess since I wasn't ballin' out like Schneids for quite so long. Sick aggro for sure. Felt like today's games IMO, but my experience was limited to a dozen sessions or so, thus I'm no expert.

Many of those names still scare the crap out of me...

Micturition Man · #**142** 05-24-2007, 08:48 PM

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it's out of question that the aggressiveness in games has SKYROCKETED.

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I glossed over this the first time I read it, but really, you have no clue what games were like at high stakes 2-3 years ago.

2-3 years ago on Interpoker, if you were to put how I play today into those lineups, I would often be the weak-tight passive player.

IMO, as far as LHE goes, those games were the first of the LAG short handed games, with lineups consisting of the likes of mostly Scandinavian LAGs such as Jarle, Keyser, TLK, Max Muller, and to a lesser LAG extent, Lagerborg. These were often the games Tommy and I were playing in, and to comment on games from years ago that you have no clue about doesn't add anything to the discussion -- cuz frankly, I think the old Crytpo games were often more aggro than the ones we play in today.

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I sat in a few of those games towards the end of their cycle I guess since I wasn't ballin' out like Schneids for quite so long. Sick aggro for sure. Felt like today's games IMO, but my experience was limited to a dozen sessions or so, thus I'm no expert.

Many of those names still scare the crap out of me...

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I was going to say the same thing as Schneids except I don't play much LHE these days so I couldn't be sure about how aggro games are now.

Anyway you can only go so far with being aggressive before it just becomes spewage, so it's not like even if the games these days are super-duper aggressive that that's necessarily a bad thing.

DpR · #**143** 05-24-2007, 11:52 PM

F this thread. Since the day Hock posted his OP, I have played 13k hands and been on a downswing that is DOUBLE the largest I had ever had (~900k hands). I Really couldnt be much more miserable......

Victor · #**144** 05-25-2007, 12:44 AM

i have 1300 hands on hoss and hes up 111k. he just eviscerated some fool for 30k today. i wanna have his kids more than schnieds'

siegfriedandroy · #**145** 05-25-2007, 06:32 AM

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(Disclaimer - I've never used a hand history converter so if this comes out weird oops)

Hock,

While I was at work today I was sent a number of hands that you played this morning. When I looked at it I thought of this thread - maybe this is the kind of style that increases the probability of a huge swing? I don't doubt that you're a winning player - but I'm just wondering what your rationale on some of these hands are. It certainly isn't pre-flop mathematics, but I find it hard to believe if you are doing this solely based on the fact that you believe you have a huge edge post-flop. Any comments on it?

Cold Cap 33 Preflop against UTG raiser and 2-hole 3 better? How can that possibly be?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
UTG raises, MP 3-bets, Button :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, doughnutz raises, UTG folds, MP 3-bets, doughnutz calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, doughnutz calls.

River: (11.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, doughnutz bets, MP calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP has Qc Qd (one pair, queens).
doughnutz has 3h 3d (flush, jack high).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 13.75 BB. 

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Flop call is purely trying to make a move on the turn or river? If so, I didn't really see a move - and calling the flop based on mathematics would have been fairly atrocius.

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
3 folds, SB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ raises, BB 3-bets, SB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz checks, BB bets, doughnutz calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz checks, BB bets, doughnutz calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz checks, BB bets, doughnutz raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: 
doughnutz has 3s 5s (flush, ace high).
BB has Ac Qs (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 10 BB. 
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Is calling 2 more bets with Ax (where x=trash) the conventional norm now? I think the probability of running into bigger Ax or pocket pair bigger than X is just way too big - obviously you disagree since I saw multiple hand histories where you did this?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
UTG raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, BB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, doughnutz raises, UTG folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, doughnutz bets, SB raises, doughnutz 3-bets, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, doughnutz bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Jh Jc (two pair, jacks and sevens).
doughnutz has 3d Ac (full house, threes full of sevens).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 14.50 BB. 

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On the other hand - while A2s isn't in my range of opening hands UTG I suppose it's fine if it's in yours - I'm just curious about the turn call. Can that really be profitable play? You already risk drawing dead or extremely slim?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
UTG :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ raises, MP 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ caps, MP calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz bets, MP calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz bets, MP raises, doughnutz calls.

River: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz bets, MP calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Results in white below: 
doughnutz has 2s As (two pair, aces and fives).
MP has Ks Kh (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 11.75 BB. 
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I'm just very confused - maybe someone else can enlighten me - what's the merit behind these hands? I'd like to be able to add that to my game : )

~andy

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yeah, im curious as well, especially since his overall win rate suggests that it's extremely likely he's dam good. hock, you mind providing the reads and thought process you went through that made you believe you played these hands well?

AndyatSD · #**146** 05-25-2007, 02:22 PM

I talked with Hock at the tables about the hands I posted - he basically said it was extreme alternative lines based on the particular opponents he was against. Given who he said he was up against - I can see his reasoning. He also mentioned earlier that Hand 2 was likely a multi-tabling mistake/misclick.

Of course then out of nowhere people IM me and tell me Hock's talking trash about me at a table I'm not even on - man at least show some courtesy to your fishes [me] otherwise I don't play with you and you lose out on lots of dollars.

(Eviscerated - that's a great way to put it, haha).

~andy

Schneids · #**147** 05-25-2007, 02:30 PM

LOL Andy you seemed to do pretty well that day. I wouldn't sweat it too much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hock_ · #**148** 05-25-2007, 02:44 PM

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LOL Andy you seemed to do pretty well that day. I wouldn't sweat it too much

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Exactly. I don't remember exactly what I said, but I think the exchange at the tables was that someone pointed out that you were playing 2/4 (which I don't think you usually play) and that it was probably because you had been running so well at 1/2 that day, which you had been. I just agreed. [Though in fairness there might have been some edge to the agreement since you had laid some crazy beats on me right before then.]

In any event, Andy I apologize if it came off as trash talk or if I was harsh. I respect your game and you seem like a good guy.

Anyway, you seemed to be killing the 2/4 -- how much did you end up overall for the day?

siegfriedandroy · #**149** 05-25-2007, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I talked with Hock at the tables about the hands I posted - he basically said it was extreme alternative lines based on the particular opponents he was against. Given who he said he was up against - I can see his reasoning. He also mentioned earlier that Hand 2 was likely a multi-tabling mistake/misclick.

Of course then out of nowhere people IM me and tell me Hock's talking trash about me at a table I'm not even on - man at least show some courtesy to your fishes [me] otherwise I don't play with you and you lose out on lots of dollars.

(Eviscerated - that's a great way to put it, haha).

~andy

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Hock, would you mind expressing the specifics of the opponents, etc, so we can all understand, if indeed you played correctly? Most here have said these lines are clearly bad, so Im really curious about how they can be justified. Thanks.

daryn · #**150** 05-25-2007, 06:22 PM

why not just suck it up and say yeah i played those pretty bad!

i play bad all the time. the best i can do is try to learn from it and not do it again. i can definitely tell when i play a hand badly and get the money in bad. right after the hand i'll say to myself ugh, why was i even in this pot with this hand? or, wow i really should have led the turn there. wow checking that turn was definitely a mistake, etc.

i just hope you're not blind to it.