STTF SNG->cash thread

[ChrisV]

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This isn't good thinking. If your hand is good it's irrelevant whether you bet or not. Your thinking about whether to bet should revolve entirely around the cases where your hand is no good.

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What??? This isn't good thinking. Your thinking should not revolve entirely around when your hand isn't good. So, the only reason to bet or not is if as a bluff, and whether you think that bluff will work?

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Yes?

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Betting here is turning your hand into a bluff, you have show down value. However, you have to ask your self how often is 88 not good here

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No?

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and how often will a better hand fold?

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Yes. There aren't any hands that are worse than 88 that will call. There's also basically a zero percent chance that you will get bluff checkraised. Given that, whether you bet or not with 88 when it's good is completely irrelevant. Your EV will be exactly the same either way. Given that, when considering how betting will affect your EV, you should disregard all the cases where 88 is good. I don't get how you don't understand this, it seems pretty basic.

[cha59]

This villain is 25/8

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $3.90
Hero (BB): $93.60
UTG: $31.65
CO: $58.80
BTN: $35.95

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.10</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.45</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $31.65 and is All-In</font>

[cha59]

Villain is 32/11/3

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $176.25
SB: $27.10
BB: $52.95
UTG: $77.80
CO: $28.40

Pre-Flop: 6 8 dealt to Hero (BTN)
BB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.90</font>, SB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.80) 9 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, SB calls $4

River: ($12.80) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">SB bets $8</font>, Hero

[ChrisV]

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ok goodfellas i need your help. two pair babe!

Villain is 28/2/2 after 50 hands. The river shove was instant.

Seat 1: THcTP ( $55.62 )
Seat 3: Firetribe ( $98.50 )
Seat 5: phenomeno ( $22.50 )
Seat 6: CY27 ( $106.40 )
Seat 8: LEVY07 ( $44.80 )
Seat 10: zarakii ( $99 )
zarakii posts Small Blind $0.50
THcTP posts Big Blind $1
Dealing cards
Your cards K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [Firetribe]
Firetribe raises $4
phenomeno folds
CY27 folds
LEVY07 calls $4
zarakii folds
THcTP calls $3

Dealing Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
THcTP checks
Firetribe bets $10
LEVY07 folds
THcTP calls $10

Dealing Turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
THcTP checks
Firetribe checks

Dealing River Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
THcTP goes All-in $41.62
Firetribe folds

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Ehh, I call. I would bet the turn given his stack size, but I don't think checking is that bad.

[ChrisV]

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Dealing cards
Your cards K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Firetribe]
thelooser99 folds
peterdetono folds
Firetribe raises $4
dawwas calls $4
miniflygarn raises $17
granitvit folds
Firetribe calls $13.50
dawwas calls $13.50

Dealing Flop 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
miniflygarn bets $38
Firetribe folds
dawwas folds

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Fourbet him pf. Flop is fine obv.

[ChrisV]

I should really stop doing these massive quotefests. So:

cha59 KK hand: Bet the flop you big girl. River sucks but call.

cha59 1st AK hand: Erk. This line is AA or KK every single goddamn time. I'd just fold.

cha59 2nd AK hand: I'd flat call AK in the BB vs an 8 PFR UTG raiser. As played it's very close, this is guaranteed to be at least QQ+, AK and you're just about breakeven vs that, but whether it's a call depends on whether you think he takes a trickier line with AA sometimes, or flats AK or QQ sometimes, or etc. It's probably a slim fold but could go either way.

cha59 68dd hand: The converter messed this up a bit, but easy fold, you don't beat anything.

[DevinLake]

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Yes. There aren't any hands that are worse than 88 that will call. There's also basically a zero percent chance that you will get bluff checkraised. Given that, whether you bet or not with 88 when it's good is completely irrelevant. Your EV will be exactly the same either way. Given that, when considering how betting will affect your EV, you should disregard all the cases where 88 is good. I don't get how you don't understand this, it seems pretty basic.

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I don't see how your EV can be the same if you bet or not. If it is in fact the same, why bet? why pay more rake if the EV is the same?

When you bet, you'll lose more when you are called. However, you will never win more. So, they have to fold better hands some % of the time to make up for that. They will, will it be enough to make up for your loses when they call? I dunno.

But your EV is not the same whether you bet or not.

[Josem]

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But your EV is not the same whether you bet or not.

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ChrisV is saying that your EV is the same whether you bet or not when your hand is good.


In the situations where 88 is good:
a) if you bet, villain will fold 100% of the time, letting you win the pot 100% of the time.

b) if you don't bet, you'll win the pot 100% of the time.

thus, the question of whether to bet is only relevant to the times that the villain has a hand better than 88.

[DevinLake]

Yea, I know. But who cares about the EV of a bet when our hand is good?

I only care about the EV of the bet against villain's entire range. The EV of a bet against the hands in his range that we beat, is pretty meaningless.

[Josem]

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Yea, I know. But who cares about the EV of a bet when our hand is good?

I only care about the EV of the bet against villain's entire range. The EV of a bet against the hands in his range that we beat, is pretty meaningless.

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...which is what ChrisV said.

When our hand is good, it doesn't matter whether we bet or not. There is no difference in the outcome (except, theoretically table image effects):
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This isn't good thinking. If your hand is good it's irrelevant whether you bet or not. Your thinking about whether to bet should revolve entirely around the cases where your hand is no good.

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But then you seem to disagree with it:
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What??? This isn't good thinking. Your thinking should not revolve entirely around when your hand isn't good. So, the only reason to bet or not is if as a bluff, and whether you think that bluff will work?

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When your hand is good, it doesn't matter whether you bet.

Thus, your thinking about betting should revolve entirely around when your hand isn't good.