Final Day of Feb 180/20 Challenge - Post Results - Final Day Sweat!

[LearnedfromTV]

One last thing is that my distribution within the final table (1-3: 6, 4-6: 5, 7-9: 3), while definitely not a meaningful sample (go ask the STT people what they think of 14 tourneys!), does reflect that I tended to have a larger than average stack when I got to the final table. Whether this was primarily the result of variance or strategy, I don't know. I know what I'd like to believe.

[Mi_T_Sharp]

It is most likely due to good strategy, but the problem is that in the short term, sometimes variance could just as easily cause the good strategy to fail IMO. One month is short term. So, you could play the same way and not do as well next month, but in the long run your numbers will be very good.

[LearnedfromTV]

Another thing is that I could face a period where, randomly, conditions are such that I play less aggressively (stack sizes, the cards I get, etc) to where over another set of 150 I still have a good ROI but it comes from moneying more and FTing less. In general I think I trend toward moneying less and FTing more, relatively, but not to the extreme from this set of 180s.

Now that I am comfortable 8-10 tabling these, I am going to aim to get to 1000 reasonably soon. Even 1000 isn't a big sample, but it's something. I'm not going to play them exclusively but I think I can still get a ton in while playing some larger buyins.

I would be very happy if they added $50's. I like the pokerroom dailies and to have a comparable tournament that I could multitable would be fantastic.

[NinjaMan]

[ QUOTE ]
It is most likely due to good strategy, but the problem is that in the short term, sometimes variance could just as easily cause the good strategy to fail IMO. One month is short term. So, you could play the same way and not do as well next month, but in the long run your numbers will be very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but this is pretty well known around these parts. I like what you have to say in other posts, though, so again, I mean no offense. However, variance doesn't say to itself, "Alright, let's hit this dude bad in February, but hit him well in March." Variance can last 10 hands, 10 MTTs, 10 days, etc. Variance can change from tournament to tournament, hand to hand. People will say "In the long term, variance evens out." If you look at every hand as a new opportunity, variance equals out over any length of term. Sure, on Monday you might go 0-6 in coinflips. That doesn't mean you'll be 6-6 on Tuesday. I know you know this, but I felt like cluttering this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Mi_T_Sharp]

Yes, I agree with all of this. I know I wasn't saying anything groundbreaking at all (no offense taken BTW). I was mainly talking about variance probably for my own benefit in a way, if you know what I mean. It's really hard to say anything around here that people don't already know...

I'm like the "Daily Affirmation" guy from SNL. I always say this stuff about variance and sticking to your game no matter what happens. Again, it is often for my own benefit. I need to always make sure that I don't ever fall into the trap of changing up my game due to some recent bad results. I don't really do this anymore, but I used to, and psychologically I need to remind myself of this. Because, we're good enough, smart enough, and doggonit people like us!

[DownLow]

OK, here are my final results for the challenge:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

Date Finish Points
_______________________________________
2/8/2006 20:56 2 218.81
2/25/2006 12:42 2 218.81
2/11/2006 20:03 3 178.65
2/23/2006 21:07 3 178.65
2/2/2006 19:51 6 126.33
2/28/2006 21:17 6 126.33
2/13/2006 21:30 7 116.96
2/28/2006 20:25 10 97.85
2/4/2006 23:36 12 89.33
2/15/2006 13:27 12 89.33
2/21/2006 19:23 12 89.33
2/25/2006 22:37 14 82.7
2/6/2006 17:42 17 75.05
2/24/2006 19:30 19 70.99
2/6/2006 15:03 20 69.19
2/9/2006 21:31 20 69.19
2/18/2006 12:08 20 69.19
2/22/2006 18:56 20 69.19
2/8/2006 14:40 21 67.53
2/20/2006 21:57 22 65.97
____________________________________________
Total TLB Points: 2169.38


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Don't have access to Poker Tracker right now so no ITM/ROI numbers right now, but it's looking like bubbling accounts for around 13.5% of my finishes when the spots are only 5% of the finishes. Obviously a big problem.