Official EPT Monte Carlo thread

[ZJ123]

the problem is Adam is never wayyyy ahead, because he knows he gonna have some outs regardless. Patrik is not gonna turn over J7o, hes gonna have a draw, small pair. or maybe AK. the problem is that even if hes bluffing, hes barelyyyy ahead of Patriks range.

[snoopy1239]

I wasn't the reporter retelling this hand, but from what I understand from my update partner, the remarks made weren't done so in an overly obnoxious way. Considering he lost such a crucial pot, it sounds like he took it rather well. I've seen many a 'name' player act like a complete idiot after encountering similar situations.

[Hoop Addict]

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the problem is Adam is never wayyyy ahead, because he knows he gonna have some outs regardless. Patrik is not gonna turn over J7o, hes gonna have a draw, small pair. or maybe AK. the problem is that even if hes bluffing, hes barelyyyy ahead of Patriks range.

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My thoughts exactly.

Anyhow, am I the only one hitting F5 in anticipation of AJ's response which a while ago was coming "momentarily"?

[Clayton]

snoopy GET SOME SLEEEEEEEEEEEP [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[mlagoo]

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The problem with it is it's either marginally good ... or unbelievably horrible

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the call is either good or bad, it cant be both.

what youre saying is its bad because hes either slightly ahead or way behind and he isnt pot committed. obviously if adam thought that he would have folded.

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It obviously can't be both. But we're in a situation where there are two possibilities:

1. Our read on the situation is right and Patrik has a wide range.
2. Our read on the situation is way off and Patrik's range is fairly small.

Assign probabilities to those and you can start to estimate how good this call is. But you can't just say one or the other.

Steve

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sure, i understand that. i just think it's like... it's not like adam was like "aj high = the nuts, i call." i imagine he thought patrik's range was super wide preflop because of past history (they had been going back and forth in a number of pots) and was narrowed significantly on the flop. patrik isn't 2xpot shoving pocket pairs on this flop. it's awful, and patrik doesn't suck. he is checking most sets because it's usually easy to get his stack in there on later streets if adam doesn't bet the flop. he MIGHT be making a superthin valuecram here with AA, hoping adam will make a herocall, and he might be bluffing with AK. other than that he has a draw here a huge % of the time, and adam should call for a coinflip with a big overlay.

i think the flop is a very difficult but good call. preflop is a lot sketchier imo but it becomes difficult to evaluate after the fact because you weren't there, don't know about table dynamics, history between the two, etc.

[snoopy1239]

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snoopy GET SOME SLEEEEEEEEEEEP [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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Lol, sleep, forgot about that. Nighty night, folks.

Should be an action-packed day tomorrow. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[mastr]

call was 100 % fine, you take your value spots when you can get them and given the read he had good value here. I did an almost identical thing late day 2 of Legends of Poker last year against Hoyt Corkins. I raised AQ he 3 bet from BB and he had been so aggressive i knew I was way haead of his range and that he would shove any flop so I called and called allin on flop. Just becuase a play can be very high variance doesn't mean its bad. And the buyin and all that other crap doesn't matter either. There are some very good article out there on this concept but in the end, if you have an edge, you should ALWAYS take it. 1st hand of main even folded to small blind who shows you AK and shoves you should call QQ from BB etc.. Don't know junglen's play here, it was very godd, if 35 was in patrik's 3-betting range then this was a very strong play and he got it in good and what momre can you hope for

[stevepa]

snoopy, that's good to hear. Let's stop talking about that then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mlagoo, patrik will do a lot of stuff from what I know and have seen from him. If he thinks shoving will get looked up light, I'm pretty sure he'll shove good one pair hands. Also, if they've been going at it a lot, I really doubt he checks this flop with a set. Regardless, this is all so dependent on past history that it's hard to have an intelligent discussion about it. But we can try [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, I have to get some work done before I go to bed, so I guess this is my last post in this thread for the night.

edit because I suck at actually getting to work: mastr, that's way oversimplified. Just because Patrik is capable of 4 betting any two doesn't mean he always does and it CERTAINLY doesn't mean he's 2x pot shoving any two on the flop.

Steve

[Hoop Addict]

If AJ thought PA would push literally anything here, despite missing the flop (IE, say he has 78s), that's the only way he can think he's in a better than 55/45 spot here, IMO.

That would be a ridiculously sicko play from PA though, and I doubt he's pushing there without a draw.

[NorthernGuy]

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The problem with it is it's either marginally good ... or unbelievably horrible

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the call is either good or bad, it cant be both.

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Where did he say it was both? Maybe you should put some extra time into reading skills (not poker reading).