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#133
09-11-2006, 02:28 PM
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Re: 200-400 Hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, of course it is, but this approach shouldn't be too far off to judge the winning chances. Overall it doesn't matter if you pay $400 twice or $800 once to reach the showdown. [/ QUOTE ] This is an isolated flop decision. When factoring in implied odds vs. reverse implied odds a call is clearly good. 
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#134
09-11-2006, 03:21 PM
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Re: 200-400 Hand.
[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering why the Gap theory is not put in play here? 2 to the right of the button opens, it means you got you be better than the opener, Id like AK suited or AQ suited or AA KK QQ or JJ for the reraise. The KJ reraise even suited is a little borderline don't cha think. [/ QUOTE ] The rereaise is pretty normal at middle or high stakes games against today's "typical" opening standards. You don't need AQ+ or JJ+ to 3-bet someone from that spot.
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#135
09-11-2006, 03:59 PM
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Re: 200-400 Hand.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I was wondering why the Gap theory is not put in play here? 2 to the right of the button opens, it means you got you be better than the opener, Id like AK suited or AQ suited or AA KK QQ or JJ for the reraise. The KJ reraise even suited is a little borderline don't cha think. [/ QUOTE ] The rereaise is pretty normal at middle or high stakes games against today's "typical" opening standards. You don't need AQ+ or JJ+ to 3-bet someone from that spot. [/ QUOTE ] Not to mention that in DS's hypothetical the game is 6 handed.
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#139
09-12-2006, 03:37 AM
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Re: 200-400 Hand.
[ QUOTE ]
shand, cant we just fold the turn unimproved? [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I thought I came up with something new, but now I know why nobody has mentioned it before. The information that we are a 9:1 dog on the flop is indeed worthless. Last try with Pokercalculator on just one street....let's count the cards that improve our hand: A = 4 T = 4 K = 3 J = 3 diamond = 8 --------------- 22 47-22=25 25 times miss and fold = -$5000 22 we hit something and pay $400 to continue (= -$8800) Potsize = 4500 If an ace comes we win 8.18% = 360 x 4 = 1440 If a K comes we win 22.37% = 1006 x 3 = 3018 If a J comes we win 15.44% = 694 x 3 = 2082 If a T comes we win 16.5% = 742 x 4 = 2970 If a diamond comes we win 21.71% = 977 x 8 = 7816 ------------------ = 17326 - 13800 = 3526 / 47 = 75 So if all of this crazy stuff is correct, our EV of calling is + $75 if there is no bet on the river. If there is a bet on the river (which is more likely and costs another $8800) it looks like this: Potsize = 5700 466 x 4 = 1864 1275 x 3 = 3825 880 x 3 = 2640 940 x 4 = 3762 1237 x 8 = 9899 ------------------ = 21990 - 22600 = - 610 / 47 = - 12,97 So our EV if it goes bet bet is - $12,97 and given the high limit, it looks like a very close fold. The point is that I set the opponent hand range to AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ which is pretty tight. If they are looser the EV goes up easily. Overall the solution depends on the opponent hand ranges (as usual) and can swing from close fold to close call. Conclusion: It depends...
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#140
09-12-2006, 06:18 AM
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Re: 200-400 Hand.
Ooops, just noticed a couple of errors - this is getting ugly [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I didn't take into account that the call on the flop costs $9400, not just $5000 for the times we miss. This turns the call if there is no bet on the river into a - $18 play. In the other case (bet on the river) I forgot once again, that we only call if we hit something. This way we should show a small profit (~ $25). A "valuebet" on the river could change this (in either direction). What got left out so far is position. If we have to call a double sized bet on the turn, we are in deep trouble.
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