***Official May Non-Nit Chat Thread***

[1p0kerboy]

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I'll just weigh in briefly and say that I agree with pokerboy here on everything, expect about stars being rigged.

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ZOMG. Is it not blatantly obvious they agreed to release his doom switch if he came on here and said that?

Rigged!!!1

[the_main]

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I'll just weigh in briefly and say that I agree with pokerboy here on everything, expect about stars being rigged.

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ZOMG. Is it not blatantly obvious they agreed to release his doom switch if he came on here and said that?

Rigged!!!1

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doom what?



^ from today [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[GrandMelon]

bye bye winrate, that is all

[Cry Me A River]

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I think what you are saying is that most players will only NOTICE they are running good or bad from big pots played where one of the players had a significant edge.


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No, not really.

Okay, here's another tact.

Let's say you get it all in as a 99% favorite.

If you get it in 100 times and win 99 of those you are running to expectation.

Okay?

Now, if you get it in 100 times and win 100 of those, you are running good.

Yes?

However, the difference in real value vs equity value is going to be quite small. You're running good, but you're not running amazing. And in order to run AMAZING, you'd have to do something like win 99999 out of 100000 instead of 99000 out of 100000.

OTOH let's say you get it in the opposite. You have a 1% chance to win.

If you get it in 100 times and win 1 of those you are running to expectation.

Okay?

If you get it in 100 times and win 2 of those you are running good.

In fact, you are running HELLA GOOD! You've doubled your value vs equity.



99% obviously an extreme example. But this illustrates what I am saying.

When you are consistant favorite, it is much harder, mathematically, to push into the "running good" column.

OTOH, when you are a dog, when you suck out, it is much more spectacular mathematically.

Since TAGs are far more likely to get it in as a favorite it's much harder to "run good" and they're more likely to be "running bad".

Yes, most of the time players who get it in with the worst of it will run to expectation and lose, lose, lose. But a handfull will run Hella good. TAGs will not run Hella good since by definition they're usually getting it in as a favorite.

[Cry Me A River]

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A good baseball team wins a little bit more than 60% of the time. When the Red Sox lose, we don't say they're running bad. When they win we don't say they're running good. It's one game.


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Yeah, I realise it's a flawed metaphor. That's why I mentioned I should prolly be using the NFL where teams regularly flirt with going undefeated.

OTOH, by focussing on this quibble, you're completely missing the point of the metaphor.

[jhill3535]

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I think what you are saying is that most players will only NOTICE they are running good or bad from big pots played where one of the players had a significant edge.


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No, not really.

Okay, here's another tact.

Let's say you get it all in as a 99% favorite.

If you get it in 100 times and win 99 of those you are running to expectation.

Okay?

Now, if you get it in 100 times and win 100 of those, you are running good.

Yes?

However, the difference in real value vs equity value is going to be quite small. You're running good, but you're not running amazing. And in order to run AMAZING, you'd have to do something like win 99999 out of 100000 instead of 99000 out of 100000.

OTOH let's say you get it in the opposite. You have a 1% chance to win.

If you get it in 100 times and win 1 of those you are running to expectation.

Okay?

If you get it in 100 times and win 2 of those you are running good.

In fact, you are running HELLA GOOD! You've doubled your value vs equity.



99% obviously an extreme example. But this illustrates what I am saying.

When you are consistant favorite, it is much harder, mathematically, to push into the "running good" column.

OTOH, when you are a dog, when you suck out, it is much more spectacular mathematically.

Since TAGs are far more likely to get it in as a favorite it's much harder to "run good" and they're more likely to be "running bad".

Yes, most of the time players who get it in with the worst of it will run to expectation and lose, lose, lose. But a handfull will run Hella good. TAGs will not run Hella good since by definition they're usually getting it in as a favorite.

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Basically it is like i said earlier. You can't go as deep running good as you can go deep running bad because you are getting in as a favorite.

If you are an 80% favorite you can run good from 81-100% but you can run bad from 79-0%. You can run much worse than you can run good.

[GrandMelon]

Blah my gf and parents want me to get a job for the summer but I really dont want (or need) to. Suggestions for easy part time job?

[bottomset]

buy them something nice, then tell them to [censored] off

[LearningCurve]

Do I live in a cave? Just noticed Carter's name has the mod signature by it now in here. Congrats, Carter!

What did I miss though...

[TheProdigy]

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Blah my gf and parents want me to get a job for the summer but I really dont want (or need) to. Suggestions for easy part time job?

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I thought you meant her parents, I was like wtf?

Maybe you can be one of those guys that paints the bathing suits on the swimsuit models?