Sometimes SNGs aren't poker: Open-Folding QQ 3-Handed? - Page 13

Slim Pickens · #**121** 03-25-2006, 05:23 AM

Look, it is wrong to use SNGPT here because you're far beyond at least two of the known limitations of ICM. BB is a microstack, and he is also going to be put all-in by the blinds in the very near future. The +3.3% number is BS. Minraise. Profit.

Slim Pickens · #**122** 03-25-2006, 05:32 AM

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I just lost a 5k HU on stars.

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Reminds me of the SNL skit "Bad Idea Jeans", unless your goal is to drive yourself crazy and/or go bust...

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A leg and a leg and a leg is three.

I agree open-folding QQ is the worst possible option, with open-pushing 15 BB a close second.

Nicholasp27 · #**123** 03-25-2006, 07:40 AM

you cannot go by sngPT alone...remember, the shorty's equity is ZERO if he can't see a showdown even when blinds put him all-in

if blinds putting him all-in does allow him to play his sidepot regardless of whether we call/raise, then his equity is more than zero

Nicok7 · #**124** 03-25-2006, 07:42 AM

Assuming a payout of 60/40 at least, enter the pot (either raise or limp, then hope he pushes, call, and be first.

If the bully pushes any two you will gain enough equity that makes up for the occasional 3rd (qq vs random = 84%!)

Then push everytime he enters the pot until the third player busts [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Nicholasp27 · #**125** 03-25-2006, 07:43 AM

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OK, here's what I'm doing if I'm the villian...

Given this, open limping is much better for hero

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yes, given that sb is YOU, or another 2+2er that WILL fold to shorty, open limping is better than folding...but that's not a given and sb has yet to show he's willing to fold to keep shorty alive

but i agree, given that sb is you, i limp/fold here

Slim Pickens · #**126** 03-25-2006, 03:31 PM

I think from the OP we can safely say SB will reraise after our minraise. The two outcomes we should really be comparing are the $278 we have if we minraise and SB pushes versus the $272 we have if we fold and SB folds. In reality, our prize pool equity is even higher since we know BB's is actually zero.

Analysis of the next two orbits is really too important to ignore here. Call the current hand #1. If we raise, on hand #2 shorty is down to 30 no matter what. Hand #3 big stack takes our BB (minus maybe like $12). Hand #4 short is out and we pick up 40% if the prize pool. If we fold, the cycle of us getting our BB stolen and then the big stack walking shorty goes on until we have so few chips that it starts becoming +$EV in the current hand to play, but it will take another $100+ in prize pool equity before that becomes the case.

That's your budget. Spend any less than $100 (granted I kinda pulled that out of the air, but the point is the same even if the numbers are slightly different) to eliminate shorty and it's less -$EV than the alternative.

curtains · #**127** 03-25-2006, 05:48 PM

On party, with the 60-40 prize structure, I suspect it's a clear fold. I dunno what the structure is on Stars.

microbet · #**128** 03-25-2006, 05:52 PM

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On party, with the 60-40 prize structure, I suspect it's a clear fold. I dunno what the structure is on Stars.

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Better than calling and folding to the SB push? You want to just let BB get the chips?

curtains · #**129** 03-26-2006, 12:18 AM

Sorry you are right, you want to make sure the BB doesn't win the pot.

Snarf · #**130** 03-26-2006, 01:47 AM

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i thought if u both call, then bb is in the hand...he only autofolds if more chips are put into the pot...but if it's just flat called and then checked down, i believe he stays in the hand

does anybody know 100% on party? on stars?

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I can tell you 100% - on Stars, if you are forced all-in wihle sitting out - your hand will be auto-mucked and no showdown will occur with your hand regardless of how good it would have been for you.