*** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Your math is flawed for one huge reason....the big favorites call off the dogs.....L'Ville is 79 points better, but layed off. This would account for the stat difference.

This is the biggest upset in history

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And the big favorites don't call off the dogs against bad 1-A opponents too? Personally I would prefer the ranking system that actually predicts results over the one that says how much better a team hypothetically is. I'm not trying to use my numbers as evidence of how good Appalachian State is or isn't, I'm staying out of that argument. What I am looking at is the question of what a fair spread would have been, in order to determine how big of an upset this really was. If 1-A teams CONSISTENTLY "call of the dogs" to the tune of underperforming their "true" edge by an average of 21 points, then that should be factored into the line. I have no doubt the talent gap is large enough that Michigan could have won by 41 on average if they played their best for all four quarters, but in any normal version of this matchup they would reign it in, and not end up winning by that much. Therefore 38-40 would not have been a reasonable spread, since the margin would be less than that well more than 50% of the time. 30-32 is the highest spread that I think would have been reasonable for this game, and since that is less than the 35.5 that has happened in the past, I think there is a decent argument to be made that it isn't THE biggest upset ever. Not that it isn't close [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Would you consider it the biggest upset of all time if it had been Utah State instead of Appalachian State? It's valid to say yes, I probably would, but I'm curious.

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yeah...the talent gap according to steele was 38 points, but that is only one set of his rankings. I'm sure the final power poll (which he didn't release this year) would've had teh gap as smaller as App St clearly maximizes their potential while Michigan, as rated by Steele, merely plays to theirs. IIRC, the spread was 32 or 32.5 when I saw it at 5dimes college xtra. I didn't take note of it though and didn't write it down.

so, not the biggest spread to overcome

but, I have to think the distribution of outcomes, Michigan's 'name,' the spotlight, the numerous swings late, 100k opposing fans, etc makes it the biggest

I mean, W Mich-C Mich just doesn't measure up to all that

[BobJoeJim]

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I will say that App St is an impressive 1-AA squad, but I'd still be very embarrassed if Illinois lost to them.

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As well you should be. The people who think Appalachian State is comparable to even a bad BCS conference team are deluded. I said I wouldn't get into the discussion of how good App St is, but I can't help but throw my two cents in. I think they would contend in the Sun Belt, or be middle of the road to bottom two thirds (but not cellar dwellers) in a weak mid-major conference like the MAC. I think Sagarin's ratings are seriously flawed for having them 59th preseason, they do NOT deserve to be nearly that high. I also think Steele's rankings are seriously flawed for having them 116th preseason, they do NOT deserve to be that low.

Everything you said statistically about the game was correct, and it confirms the talent gap, but don't try to tell me Michigan wouldn't dominate the lines just as effectively against Eastern Michigan... and probably without having their defense exposed anywhere near as badly.

[MyTurn2Raise]

probably just about equivalent....I have Michigan -33 v E Mich in Ann Arbor before week 1 results

[BobJoeJim]

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Your math is flawed for one huge reason....the big favorites call off the dogs.....L'Ville is 79 points better, but layed off. This would account for the stat difference.

This is the biggest upset in history

[/ QUOTE ]
And the big favorites don't call off the dogs against bad 1-A opponents too? Personally I would prefer the ranking system that actually predicts results over the one that says how much better a team hypothetically is. I'm not trying to use my numbers as evidence of how good Appalachian State is or isn't, I'm staying out of that argument. What I am looking at is the question of what a fair spread would have been, in order to determine how big of an upset this really was. If 1-A teams CONSISTENTLY "call of the dogs" to the tune of underperforming their "true" edge by an average of 21 points, then that should be factored into the line. I have no doubt the talent gap is large enough that Michigan could have won by 41 on average if they played their best for all four quarters, but in any normal version of this matchup they would reign it in, and not end up winning by that much. Therefore 38-40 would not have been a reasonable spread, since the margin would be less than that well more than 50% of the time. 30-32 is the highest spread that I think would have been reasonable for this game, and since that is less than the 35.5 that has happened in the past, I think there is a decent argument to be made that it isn't THE biggest upset ever. Not that it isn't close [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Would you consider it the biggest upset of all time if it had been Utah State instead of Appalachian State? It's valid to say yes, I probably would, but I'm curious.

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yeah...the talent gap according to steele was 38 points, but that is only one set of his rankings. I'm sure the final power poll (which he didn't release this year) would've had teh gap as smaller as App St clearly maximizes their potential while Michigan, as rated by Steele, merely plays to theirs. IIRC, the spread was 32 or 32.5 when I saw it at 5dimes college xtra. I didn't take note of it though and didn't write it down.

so, not the biggest spread to overcome

but, I have to think the distribution of outcomes, Michigan's 'name,' the spotlight, the numerous swings late, 100k opposing fans, etc makes it the biggest

I mean, W Mich-C Mich just doesn't measure up to all that

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I can certainly agree that the marquee aspect of it counts for something. At this point I'm just arguing semantics. I still don't think it was the "biggest" upset ever, I think that is something measurable, just look at spreads, and you'll see it wasn't (quite). If you wanted to say it was the "most shocking", or "most spectacular" upset ever, or something like that, I would completely agree. I mean it wasn't just 1-AA vs. a ranked 1-A team. It was 1-AA against MICHIGAN. IN THE BIG HOUSE. WHEN THEY WERE PRESEASON #5!!! Of course it's huge [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

p.s. I really REALLY hope Appalachian State loses to Lenoir-Rhyne at home next week, I would laugh even harder, and that would only make this whole thing even better for me.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Lenoir-Rhyne is a trap game

[MyTurn2Raise]

also, I'm the one who has to eat alot of crow as I was saying the Big11Ten, SEC, Pac-10 have never had a team lose when favored by that much and that the probability of them winning should just be rounded to 1.00 when doing evaluations of season W-L totals.

I need a good recipe for crow

[BobJoeJim]

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also, I'm the one who has to eat alot of crow as I was saying the Big11Ten, SEC, Pac-10 have never had a team lose when favored by that much and that the probability of them winning should just be rounded to 1.00 when doing evaluations of season W-L totals.

I need a good recipe for crow

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I might sautée it in butter with a little sage and a pinch of thyme. Then make a white wine pan sauce to pour over it. Serve with fresh linguine, tossed with a little olive oil and Parmesan. Even crow would have to taste good by then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

The good news is it somewhat justifies my constant ragging on the Big11Ten last year, saying the top teams only built such good records because the rest of the league sucked really bad and not because the top teams were tops in the country

[Needle77]

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I am conflicted on how to weigh the blocked FGs

it might be line differences, but it seemed like blown assignments

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The pressure came from inside of someone, thus a huge blown assignment. All any player is told to do on FG/XP is to step inside and protect that gap, it is inexcusable to not do so.

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Lenoir-Rhyne is a trap game.

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I wish it were as they were my favorite school recruiting me out of high school, but it's not. L-R can't compete in the SAC-8, a school with 14 scholarships has a 0% chance against App State. It's an entirely different animal from full scholarship 1AA playing 1A and full scholarship 1AA playing lower end scholarship D2. If L-R used the full allotment of scholarships the story MAY be different, but because they don't its a moot point.

[oe39]

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The good news is it somewhat justifies my constant ragging on the Big11Ten last year, saying the top teams only built such good records because the rest of the league sucked really bad and not because the top teams were tops in the country

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this still needs to be justified? i thought the bowl games showed that they shouldn't have been the top teams.