Problem with your book

[Quicksilvre]

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Master is correct. I am a roulette wheel maker, an artisan if you will, and to ensure the integrity of the device we test spin each and every hand-crafted wheel we make. If it lands on either red or black five times in a row, we have a large kung fu master on hand who karate chops the wheel into smithereens.

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I was wondering what was so funny...until I read this.

[FUJItheFISH]

hello student_hellmuth

think about it this way:
if we flip a coin 10 times the probability of it flipping
TTTTTTTTTH is the same as the probability of it flipping HHHHHHHHHT as the probability of it flipping THTHTHTHTH as the probability of it flipping TTHHTTHHTTHH and on and on. Get it? If not, you can always make a solid living playing roulette.

Cheers,
Fuji

[augie_]

Don't you guys realize this is the greatest gimmick account in the history of 2+2?!?! He's got everyone riled up!!

HAHAHA!

[SoftcoreRevolt]

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Say there are two roullette wheels. Wheel A has been spun 20 times and has come up red every time! Oddly enough, Wheel B has alternated red and black outcomes for it's 20 spins, and the 20th spin was black. Which wheel is more likely to hit black on it's 21st spin?

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Look, I'm not saying you can definitely know which wheel is going to hit which, I'm not that dense, and thats why they call it gambling. However, the wheel that hit red 20 times in a row is a little more likely to hit black than the one that has been behaving properly according to probability.

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Ok, you say probability makes it more likely for a 50/50 event that has happened 20 times in a row NOT to happen the 21st time.

How? A coin that is flipped in the air is only being acted upon by gravity, and the power and angle in which it was flipped.

A roulette wheel, and money wheel is a device in which the spin of the wheel, its construction, speed and texture determines where the ball will land. Everytime it spins, each option on the wheel is equally likely to happen.

NOW, are you saying that some mystical force known as probability can overcome the laws of physics, and somehow manage to push a ball, or a coin into a direction it should not have gone, simply because it has gone the other dirrection the last 20 times? If so, why haven't scientists discovered this force known as probability? When did it develop?

Because when the big bang happened, 4 forces were created. The Strong Force, The Weak Force, Gravity, and Electromagnetic. Which one of these does this magical probability, with the power to bend physics to obey its will?

If probability worked the way you described, where previous events had a role in outcomes of independent events, a coin could not land on the same face more than once in a row. Probability, which states each side is equally likely to come up on any given flip would make sure the opposite face fell the next flip. It wouldn't take 20 flips for probability to realize it is late to work and that it better star having heads land before the entire universe is destroyed.

[Haggis McHaggis]

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You work for a casino don't you?

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If by that you mean casinos pay me, then yes, I do [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Gregatron]

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Don't you guys realize this is the greatest gimmick account in the history of 2+2?!?! He's got everyone riled up!!

HAHAHA!

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No doubt. You can't talk sense to trout when they get riled up though. Everyone wants to show off how they know how wrong the gambler's fallacy is in hopes that other 2p2ers will think they are smart.

To (some of) the posters in this thread: no one is impressed that you know the chance of a fair coin that has come up heads 10 times in a row will do so again is 50%. It does make you smart or special, and you are not impressing anyone. (This does not apply to those of you who were making a genuine albeit misguided attempt to help this troll.)

[suzzer99]

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He's got everyone riled up!!

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Indeed. To a degree that I would have bet my BR to $1 wouldn't be possible, if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes.

If there were a troll hall of fame on this board, master_helmuth would be a first ballot-er.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

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Don't you guys realize this is the greatest gimmick account in the history of 2+2?!?! He's got everyone riled up!!

HAHAHA!

[/ QUOTE ]

To (some of) the posters in this thread: no one is impressed that you know the chance of a fair coin that has come up heads 10 times in a row will do so again is 50%. It does make you smart or special, and you are not impressing anyone. (This does not apply to those of you who were making a genuine albeit misguided attempt to help this troll.)

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And no one is impressed that you can point out the obvious either. Just as it is fun for me to post my overblown probability reply that I wanted to post here since it was probably seen by 10 people on SA, it is fun for you to try and act like you are enlightening people.

Everyone needs to blow off steam on trolls, tell a joke, etc. It makes the troll feel special, it makes us feel special, everyone's life is improved.

[12AX7]

OK, let's see here.

1) Missing 99 times still does not affect the probabilities of the next trial, trial 100. Yes the probability of not seeing a flush in a 100 trials is small. But that's because you have to sum up the probabilities of missing, if I recall basic probabily.

Seriously, the next flip of a coin is always 50/50. 10 heads in a row is a different problem. Perhaps some of the more math literate posters can elaborate? Somewhere in these threads someone did have a great way of explaining this. I just can't recall where it's at.

If you just walked up to the table without having ever seen the previous 99 trials, what would you set the probability at?

2) OK, so the roulette wheel has hit red 10 times in a row... is the wheel "trending"? or is it "due" to come up black? LOL! I knew a lottery fanatic that kept records of florida lottery numbers and played both theories. He'd by one ticket with the most common numbers, and another with the ones that hadn't been seen in a while. LOL! Yet this guy literally had made millions by using moving averages on mutual funds at one time.

As for Roulette, I've debated various money management schemes to see if I could get ahead and push ruin out a far as possible. Seems like it might be doable. But C'mon. All those Wynn casinos were not build by beatable games, right?

The Roulette History Chart is there to cater to both the "trending" and "due" crowds.

3) The longer you continue to play a -EV game, the more of what I call a "statistical deficit" is built up. You may be up now, but a correction is on the way. LOL! The deficit grows with each trial too. Because it's cumulative for every dollar waged. Not the size of your initial bankroll.

Now, I don't really know if I'm a +EV poker player yet, but consider this. Over the last 6 weeks at micros I rebuilt my bankroll from a low of $2.50 to $200. Over a three day period of the Holiday, I got knocked back to $50. Ouch. In the prior six weeks I had not posted a single losing day. Go figure. Was I "trending"? Was I "due" for a loss? LOL! Was it the supposed influx of new sharks because of no rakeback at Party? Was it too many donks drawing out on me? No clue.

However, one theory says, I was correcting back to my expectation, right? To be up $198 at 0.02/0.04 to 0.25/0.50 is a lot of BB's. Most gained in 0.10/0.20. Chances are I was way ahead of where I should've been.

Now I can't say this is a mathematical statement. Moreso rhetorical... But all those Wynn casinos weren't built by spreading +EV games right. Now I'm sure you'll point out 21. But considering that most folks can't master it, or play under bankrolled, and that things like 50% penetration on 6 decks kills counting, I'd say guess Steve Wynn's old saying, "you wanna make money in a casino, own one" is as true today as the day he said it.

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But that doesn't make any sense. The odds of missing it 20 times in a row are very low. Are you telling me that if you miss a flush draw 99 times in a row by some crazy strike of probality, on the 100th time its the same chance? If that was true, than probability wouldn't work. I used to be a roulette player in the casino, I won some, and lost some, but overall I'm up. The reason why is I knew to only bet colors, and only bet a color that hadn't come up in a while, because the odds of red not coming up 10 times in a row are low. Why do you think they have a history chart at the tables?

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[12AX7]

Dude, I have met dealers that can land a ball nearly on the number they want. I once asked such a dealer to land one on 00. The ball went in but bobbled out. So I'm 100% certain some dealers could keep the ball in say any quadrant of the wheel he wants.

Yes wheels are mechanical. Some get whacked. But trust me. The casinos want a truly correct and random wheel even more than you do. After all, the payouts are based on a true and fair wheel.

Geez, I wish I could find the post that clearly explained this... I'll admit, it sounds attractive. "Of course it can't run red forever, black is due". Yet, the truth is, it's not due.

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Say there are two roullette wheels. Wheel A has been spun 20 times and has come up red every time! Oddly enough, Wheel B has alternated red and black outcomes for it's 20 spins, and the 20th spin was black. Which wheel is more likely to hit black on it's 21st spin?

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Look, I'm not saying you can definitely know which wheel is going to hit which, I'm not that dense, and thats why they call it gambling. However, the wheel that hit red 20 times in a row is a little more likely to hit black than the one that has been behaving properly according to probability.

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actually, since roullette wheels are mechanical devices, when it lands on red super often it is most likely that there is an inbalance or groove causing it. so it would be more likely to hit on red in the future.

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Modern roulette wheels are tested a lot to ensure that this sort of thing doesn't happen. I know this because as a frequent roulette player i've had many conversations with the dealers.

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