Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log - Page 13

Levarkin · #1 10-11-2005, 12:55 PM

Did you mean "I am going to load up on NO/Oak and Tenn/Oak teasers instead"?

sygamel · #2 10-11-2005, 01:00 PM

Yes, thanks for the correction.

sygamel · #3 10-11-2005, 06:20 PM

Oakland Raiders to win +115.3
$173.46 to win $200.00
10/11/05

Note: +114 is the lowest number to play for a 4 unit bet on this game. +101 is the lowest number to play for a 3 unit bet.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

sygamel · #4 10-11-2005, 06:50 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars to win +132
$37.88 to win $50.00
10/11/05

Note: +130 is the lowest number to play for a bet on this game.

sygamel · #5 10-12-2005, 10:55 AM

Miami/Tampa Bay over 33.5 -111.1
$166.69 to win $150.00
10/11/05

Note: -105 is the highest number to play for a 3 unit bet on over 33.5. -120 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet.

FYI The line appears to have changed in the 20 minutes since I've made the bet.

Cross-posted to SYGamel's NFL Picks

sygamel · #6 10-13-2005, 09:31 AM

Since this line has shot through the ceiling in the last 24 hours (usually a good sign as sharp bettors move totals whereas unsavvy bettors generally move pointspreads), I'm going to change the wager requirements to the following:

Mia/TB ov 35 -- +104 is the lowest number to play for a 3 unit bet. -110 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet. -129 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

sublime · #7 10-13-2005, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since this line has shot through the ceiling in the last 24 hours (usually a good sign as sharp bettors move totals whereas unsavvy bettors generally move pointspreads), I'm going to change the wager requirements to the following:

Mia/TB ov 35 -- +104 is the lowest number to play for a 3 unit bet. -110 is the highest number to play for a 2 unit bet. -129 is the highest number to play for a 1 unit bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

ov 35 -110 is a losing proposition

34 is a key number in regards to totals. you had a great bet in over 33.5, dont ruin it by putting more money on a bad number.

sygamel · #8 10-13-2005, 06:36 PM

I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)).

sublime · #9 10-13-2005, 06:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm aware 34 is a key number, however I already put my entire bet in at ov 33.5. I am suggesting to anyone following my picks that it is still safe to bet ov 35 though at reduced units (check out the respective notes for post 8 and post 8 (ii)).

[/ QUOTE ]

its *not* ok for them to bet it though. the value is gone, and will never be back.

while, most will pay no attention to what i am saying, its key. this game may end up being a 23-20 game and people will say 'well i knew that 1.5pts didn't matter, yet its this same mistake done 100's of times that guarantees people lose in he long run.

again, you seem to have a good grasp of how to handicap a game (which i don't, so take my compliment fwiw) but you are underrating the strength of the market.

sygamel · #10 10-12-2005, 05:33 PM

Miami Dolphins +4 -102
$51.00 to win $50.00
10/12/05

Note: -107 is the highest number to play for a bet at +4.