Pro Bowl Players - Page 12

bottomset · #**111** 12-20-2006, 02:36 PM

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Rushing yards are also a measure of value - they're just a worse measure of value than DPAR because they have a lower correlation to scoring points (and therefore winning). Westbrook leads all NFC running backs in DPAR.

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Actually he doesn't. Per this link: DPAR

He trails Marion Barber in the NFC. He also trails Addai. I don't see how any list that has these two part time RB's ahead of Westbrook, Gore, L. Johnson or Barber should be definitive proof that Westbrook is the most valuable RB in the league.

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you have to factor Recieving in, scroll down that page some, do some addition and Westbrooke is #2 behind LT

TheNoodleMan · #**112** 12-20-2006, 02:39 PM

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Rushing yards are also a measure of value - they're just a worse measure of value than DPAR because they have a lower correlation to scoring points (and therefore winning). Westbrook leads all NFC running backs in DPAR.

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Actually he doesn't. Per this link: DPAR

He trails Marion Barber in the NFC. He also trails Addai. I don't see how any list that has these two part time RB's ahead of Westbrook, Gore, L. Johnson or Barber should be definitive proof that Westbrook is the most valuable RB in the league.

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That list only requires 75 carries to qualify. Bump it up to 200 carries and you'll lose the part timers.
Also, take another look at Addai. He really is having a very good year.

PokerFink · #**113** 12-20-2006, 03:02 PM

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Actually he doesn't. Per this link: DPAR

He trails Marion Barber in the NFC. He also trails Addai. I don't see how any list that has these two part time RB's ahead of Westbrook, Gore, L. Johnson or Barber should be definitive proof that Westbrook is the most valuable RB in the league.

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You forgot recieving. Westbrook is well ahead of all NFC running backs when you including recieving.

Addai is not in the NFC. He also has 182 carries which is only about 25 less than Westbrook.

Marion Barber has been awesome this year. He leads the NFL in rushing value per play (DVOA). So even though he has only 122 carries, he has been worth a lot of value.

Advanced statistics like these don't always spit out the numbers you would suspect, because "traditional" numbers are very often misleading and wrong. DPAR has a higher correlation with actual scoring and success than any normal statistic, so I would say it's much more definititive proof than those statistics.

If you're going to rank RBs by value, you might as well use the best statistic that has the highest correlation with success, right?

BWebb · #**114** 12-20-2006, 03:06 PM

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Marion Barber has been awesome this year. He leads the NFL in rushing value per play (DVOA). So even though he has only 122 carries, he has been worth a lot of value.

Advanced statistics like these don't always spit out the numbers you would suspect, because "traditional" numbers are very often misleading and wrong. DPAR has a higher correlation with actual scoring and success than any normal statistic, so I would say it's much more definititive proof than those statistics.

If you're going to rank RBs by value, you might as well use the best statistic that has the highest correlation with success, right?

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So, you are a general manager and get to decide between Frank Gore and Marion Barber, everything else being equal. Who do you take?

DMBFan23 · #**115** 12-20-2006, 03:07 PM

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Rushing yards are also a measure of value - they're just a worse measure of value than DPAR because they have a lower correlation to scoring points (and therefore winning). Westbrook leads all NFC running backs in DPAR.

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Actually he doesn't. Per this link: DPAR

He trails Marion Barber in the NFC. He also trails Addai. I don't see how any list that has these two part time RB's ahead of Westbrook, Gore, L. Johnson or Barber should be definitive proof that Westbrook is the most valuable RB in the league.

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you have to factor Recieving in, scroll down that page some, do some addition and Westbrooke is #2 behind LT

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/brag, these are my two fantasy backs

TheNoodleMan · #**116** 12-20-2006, 03:12 PM

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you have to factor Recieving in, scroll down that page some, do some addition and Westbrooke is #2 behind LT

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/brag, these are my two fantasy backs

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Do you also compete in the special Olympics?

PokerFink · #**117** 12-20-2006, 03:21 PM

SL,

That's a nice argument. Certainly, a lot of the difference in value between Westbrook and Gore is Westbrook's recieving. He has been excellent as a runner this year, but we all know that he is one of the best recieving RB in the league - that's a lot of his value.

DPAR does say Westbrook has been more valuable as a rusher, but you're correct that DPAR is partly an individual measure and partly a team measure. The Eagles have a very good offensive line and a dangerous passing attack, both of which help Westbrook in the running game. So it's not out of question that Gore has been the better runner. Their actual rushing value may be closer than just DPAR would indicate - and perhaps Gore is ahead.

But like I said originally, I would include Westbrook over Gore because Westbrook is a much bigger reciving threat. If you want to put in Gore, Westbrook and Jackson (and drop Tiki), that's fine. But IMO Westbrook has to be in there.

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There is a problem with the last part of your argument. Your last comparison is between Gore/Westbrook's individual rushing DVOA and the team's rushing DVOA. A team's rushing DVOA includes quarterback runs.

McNabb has the highest rushing DVOA in the league at 57.6% over 24 runs.
Smith has a -22.5% DVOA over 29 runs.
Garcia has -24.9% DVOA over 9 runs.

So the Eagles overall rushing DVOA is helped by their quarterbacks, while the Niners is hurt. This will help and hurt Gore and Westbrook respectively when you compare them to the overall rushing DVOA, but it doesn't really have anything to do with their value to their team. You can't compare a RB's runs to a QB's scrambles.

Edit: I guess that you were probably trying to compare Westbrook and Gore to the other running backs on their teams, which is a very smart thing to do. Overall team rushing DVOA just isn't the way to do it.

P.S. Garcia's awful rushing DVOA is very surprising to me. He has run for a couple first downs... although I think he fumbled once and the Eagles recovered.

tdarko · #**118** 12-20-2006, 03:25 PM

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Yeah, well he just finds a way to win. That should be take into account. 12 wins, you gotta take that into account.

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I don't have anything against Grossman but I believe it is the Bears that find a way to win, not necessarily Rex. The Cowboys were and were going to be a .500 team with Bledsoe, Romo came in and now they are a playoff team...are they the best? Of course not, but it is clear as day that he has been a difference maker just as it is clear as day that the Bears defense and special teams have been the difference maker. Why wouldn't any QB in the league have 12 wins on that Bears team, what has Rex done to win 12 games? He is winning games with a 1.3 passer rating...he is winning games in which they don't score an offensive touchdown. Sure, he has had some good games but he has also played the worst teams in the league (not his fault), and anytime he has faced any kind of pass rush he has played 500 with the receivers and defense.

What I do know is that life is good when da Bears are winning. I mean how can you not like da Bears?

BWebb · #**119** 12-20-2006, 03:26 PM

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If you want to put in Gore, Westbrook and Jackson (and drop Tiki), that's fine. But IMO Westbrook has to be in there.

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Why couldn't you have said this 100 posts ago and I wouldn't have had to try and argue on the internet like a retard [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

capone0 · #**120** 12-20-2006, 03:29 PM

Why is a receiving threat such a big deal? He's supposed to be a RB position on the pro bowl. Yes receiving should weigh in but I think some of you guys are weighing it in way too heavily to benefit the Westbrook argument.

Leaving off the leading rusher in the NFC and the leading YPC guy in the NFC would be a travesty. I guess leaving Westbrook off the team is as well but to kick off Gore for it when he's definitely better than fan favorite Tiki and arguably better than Stephen Jackson. This year in the NFC, there were positions which were easy to fill without many decisions and there were others that were hard (NFC RBs, NFC WRs). You do realize in 2003, LT with 1635 yards, 17 tds, 100 catches for 725 yards and 4 tds didn't make the pro bowl over Clinton, Priest and J. Lewis. I'm not suprised Westbrook didn't make it, he was just the 1 that fell out. All 4 are deserving.