**American Idol The Top 3

[Brocktoon]

Has anyone noticed that Kat is just a whisker ahead of Elliot on dialidol? This sort of reminds me of last week when almost everyone thought Kat was as good as dead and Chris managed to get bounced while still being the highest valued contestant on the WSEX market.

With all my remaining shares in Taylor and a sizable (for me) wager on Taylor to last longer than Kat the thought of Kat slipping into the bottom slot this week has me drooling.

[revots33]

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Elliot can only win if the OTHER TWO die before the end of the season. I put those odds at above 200:1. Hence my bet.

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Elliott is in a statistical tie with Katharine on DialIdol for bottom 2. I agree he likely goes home tonight, but I would'nt bet $95 to win $5.


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With all my remaining shares in Taylor and a sizable (for me) wager on Taylor to last longer than Kat the thought of Kat slipping into the bottom slot this week has me drooling.


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Me too, since I put 10 bucks each on Pinnacle for a Taylor/Elliott or Elliott/Taylor final 2, at 60-1 and 100-1. I already hate Katharine with the fire of a thousand suns, I will hate her even more if her crappy singing costs me $600/$1000 bucks.

[jar]

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yea see i actually like the song but her version sucked IMO. I know I'm in the minority here but i just cant see what the big deal is...i actually made a cringing face while she was singing.

The best song I thought she did all year was the Cherry Tree song, because she wasn't trying to be a diva (which she isn't)

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I agree. During the whole a capella part at the beginning, I was thinking let's see how far off pitch she is when the band comes in. Sounded like it took her a bit to get back once they came in. Also, I cringed on nearly every big note. Kat just doesn't have the 'big note' diva voice, much as she wants to. I think the Cherry Tree song was my favorite of hers as well.

[Performify]

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I have a decent background with music and my father is a professional musician and I didnt think Kat's version of 'Somewhere Over The Rainbow' was THAT great. Her voice sounded great in it but like many of her songs the arrangement was weird. I am curious as to if she chooses the arrangements or if the producers do, but tonight's wasnt great, in any of her songs.

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I agree - while i do think her vocal performance was phenominal, i especially agree re: the arrangement being weird. I too would like to understand the arrangement process - i'm sure at the most its co-operative between the talent, the producers, and the band - I doubt its 100% the performer in any case.

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Here is the reason Taylor will win: He is a fairly consistantly fun and above average performer who isnt arrogant and doesn't get too ambitious with his songs. People here the stuff and recognize the songs he is singing. Is he the most talented performer? Hell no. Chris or Elliot is. However, will he win? Yes. America related to him, he deserves credit for embracing a unique personality for AI and sticking to it at all costs and I think the haters should be a little more kind for a guy who has stuck to who he is and had a lot of fun doing so.

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I don't disagree with your assesment re: Taylor, especially why he's popular / why he is favored to win. Its not that I hate him - its just that I don't think he deserves to win. I do think that Kat has some sort of a chance to win this, but assuming its Kat and Taylor in the finals I'll definately be executing an equal hedge on both.

And I do think, if he does win, this will be a Ruben vs Clay year, where the #2 (and probably #3 and #4) all go on to have better careers than the winner.

[terrapin314]

Point to remembeer:

America is voting for the best performer, not the best voice. Charisma and stage presence is probably more important than pure natural talent.

[BigF]

Kat is so hot. I personally don't think it's "uncool" to sing an Oz song but we'll see if America thinks otherwise.

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From MJ's blog:

Judges picks:

Simon Cowell chose for Katharine McPhee: "Over the Rainbow" by Judy Garland and many others.


Clive Davis's song choices for the Top 3:

Katharine McPhee: "I Believe I Can Fly" by R. Kelly



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this is very unfortunate

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[guppy]

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Took my "earnings" for the season and put them to "earn" another 5% for 1 day (very likely) or 8 days (an almost lock):

ELLIOT YAMIN 5 7 +1328

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are you saying you shorted elliot @ 20:1 ?
Risking $95 to win $5. . . damn that's scary.

I agree there's a good chance he goes home tonight, but I don't know if I could say with 95% confidence that he can't win.

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If you wanted to short Elliot would taking Taylor v Elliot at -1100 be a better choice (compared to Taylor+Kat v Elliot at -1900)?

Alternately, you are risking (perhaps) $950 to win $50. You could have laid 1-5 on Elliot leaving this week, for $250 to win $50. If Elliot stays, you can bet against him the next week risking enough to win $300, which will still give you the same $50 net win, and end up risking less than your original bet of $950 as long as you can lay odds of -233 or better (equivalent to buying the other contestant at 70). Do you think that either Taylor or (somehow?) Kat would be less than 70 against Elliot?

[NoChance]

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Has anyone noticed that Kat is just a whisker ahead of Elliot on dialidol? This sort of reminds me of last week when almost everyone thought Kat was as good as dead and Chris managed to get bounced while still being the highest valued contestant on the WSEX market.

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I said it last week and I will say it again this week, Kat is undervalued at dialidol. She always is higher than what score it gives her. Margin of error is close enough that it would not surprise me if she got the most votes this week. She was best last night.

[revots33]

I noticed that DialIdol only had stats for 2 of the phone lines for each contestant, not 3. Not sure if this has any impact on their final rankings, but it certainly could.

[NoChance]

Good point. We really only have 2/3 the data we normally have plus no text vote information. You never know...