*official 2007 red sox thread*

[owsley]

[ QUOTE ]


your last sentence just pwns. i mean they LEAD THE AMERICAN LEAUGE IN OBP for crying out loud. THEY ARE 3RD IN SLG%! THEY ARE 4th IN EqA!

yet they are 7th in runs scored. obviously (to those who repeat what baseball prospectus tells them ) they are running bad with runners on etc...i am amazed at the pani that i have seen on SOSH (well not amazed at the stupidity, just the enormous amount of it).

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. i dont disagree though, worrying about the sox offense is really silly

[34TheTruth34]

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you can't be happy with the way the Sox are playing right now. Happy about the big lead sure, but if the season were to end today, I wouldn't be too confident going into the playoffs with the lack of run production.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this pretty much sums it up.

Sometimes I wonder if you guys are even watching the games. They are simply not playing well and haven't been for about a month. It seems as if the big lead is clouding your judgement. Here's just a few of the things I'm worried about heading into the ASB/2nd half:

1. They continue to leave runners on at an alarming rate. When they were consistently winning the close games, nobody else here but me seemed to notice this or cared. Now that they're losing one-run games to horrible pitchers, people are starting to notice. This has been a problem most of the year.

2. They are real bad mentally. It's impossible to quantify baseball IQ, but if we could, the Red Sox would have a negative score. The Lugo attempted steal stands out from the other night obv. But, in general, they just don't know how to run the bases and play defense. How many of Lowell's and Lugo's errors have been of the 'I-had-absolutely-no-chance-to-get-the-runner-at-first-but-I-rushed-the-throw-and-fired-it-into-the-stands-nonetheless' variety? Quite a few.

Also, Francona is a horrible X's and O's manager and it's starting to bug me. I realize that Tito probably has a very good "net" effect on the team because he keeps the guys loose and the players like him. But he constantly goes against the book and makes what I feel are horrible decisions.

Lately, there have been tons of bad ABs. I don't like what I've seen from Ortiz, Manny, Drew, and Varitek. They've just looked awful. Manny and Papi have had multiple at bats over the last couple of days down by one in the 9th with the game on the line. And they've looked downright overmatched. Flailing and waving at pitches and striking out badly. I hesitate to accuse Manny of not trying, because, let's face it, it always looks like he's not trying, but come on. That AB against Putz was one of the worst things I've ever seen in my life.

3. The Red Sox have been insanely lucky this year (and, to a lesser extent, the Yankees and Toronto have been insanely unlucky). Starting pitchng and bullpen has run very well in the first half, I don't expect that to continue. They will be decent, but not amazing (other than Pap and Dice-K) and I expect a correction in the ERA numbers.

Let's not forget, too, that the Red Sox have been GIVEN two victories by opposing managers this year when they inexplicably pulled starters who were cruising, one by Toronto (Halladay) and the other by Baltimore (Guthrie).

And, up until recently, they haven't been injured at all while the Jays and Yanks have been extremely hobbled.

But, hey, nothing to worry about ZOMG THEY HAVE A HUGE LEAD AND GOOD RECORD!!!!1!!!!

Anyway, the part you guys have been waiting for:

I CONCEDE THAT THE STATEMENT I MADE ABOUT THE YANKEES BEING 2 GAMES OUT ON JULY 4th WAS WRONG. BY A LOT.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you can't be happy with the way the Sox are playing right now. Happy about the big lead sure, but if the season were to end today, I wouldn't be too confident going into the playoffs with the lack of run production.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this pretty much sums it up.

Sometimes I wonder if you guys are even watching the games. They are simply not playing well and haven't been for about a month. It seems as if the big lead is clouding your judgement. Here's just a few of the things I'm worried about heading into the ASB/2nd half:

1. They continue to leave runners on at an alarming rate. When they were consistently winning the close games, nobody else here but me seemed to notice this or cared. Now that they're losing one-run games to horrible pitchers, people are starting to notice. This has been a problem most of the year.

2. They are real bad mentally. It's impossible to quantify baseball IQ, but if we could, the Red Sox would have a negative score. The Lugo attempted steal stands out from the other night obv. But, in general, they just don't know how to run the bases and play defense. How many of Lowell's and Lugo's errors have been of the 'I-had-absolutely-no-chance-to-get-the-runner-at-first-but-I-rushed-the-throw-and-fired-it-into-the-stands-nonetheless' variety? Quite a few.

Also, Francona is a horrible X's and O's manager and it's starting to bug me. I realize that Tito probably has a very good "net" effect on the team because he keeps the guys loose and the players like him. But he constantly goes against the book and makes what I feel are horrible decisions.

Lately, there have been tons of bad ABs. I don't like what I've seen from Ortiz, Manny, Drew, and Varitek. They've just looked awful. Manny and Papi have had multiple at bats over the last couple of days down by one in the 9th with the game on the line. And they've looked downright overmatched. Flailing and waving at pitches and striking out badly. I hesitate to accuse Manny of not trying, because, let's face it, it always looks like he's not trying, but come on. That AB against Putz was one of the worst things I've ever seen in my life.

3. The Red Sox have been insanely lucky this year (and, to a lesser extent, the Yankees and Toronto have been insanely unlucky). Starting pitchng and bullpen has run very well in the first half, I don't expect that to continue. They will be decent, but not amazing (other than Pap and Dice-K) and I expect a correction in the ERA numbers.

Let's not forget, too, that the Red Sox have been GIVEN two victories by opposing managers this year when they inexplicably pulled starters who were cruising, one by Toronto (Halladay) and the other by Baltimore (Guthrie).

And, up until recently, they haven't been injured at all while the Jays and Yanks have been extremely hobbled.

But, hey, nothing to worry about ZOMG THEY HAVE A HUGE LEAD AND GOOD RECORD!!!!1!!!!

Anyway, the part you guys have been waiting for:

I CONCEDE THAT THE STATEMENT I MADE ABOUT THE YANKEES BEING 2 GAMES OUT ON JULY 4th WAS WRONG. BY A LOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

seriously. thanks for reminding me why i read this thread like once every four days. I'm gonna have to extend that to once a week as i am still running into utter hilarity on a regular basis.

i mean i would love to dissect each and every 'point' you made, but i wont waste my time. i must (cant resist) say, the comment about how lucky the red sox have been is my favorite. i mean when your two corner outfielders (one of whom is the a top 3 RHH of the past decade) combine for less than 50 extra base hits, clearly you are fortunate. when your starting SS and CF hit at like 25% of their career norms, clearly you just have to thank the gods for the luck bestowed upon them.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
i mean when your two corner outfielders (one of whom is the a top 3 RHH of the past decade) combine for less than 50 extra base hits, clearly you are fortunate. when your starting SS and CF hit at like 25% of their career norms, clearly you just have to thank the gods for the luck bestowed upon them.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok just so we're clear, what you're saying is the following:

-the production the Sox have gotten from Lugo, Crisp, Manny, and Drew is way down.

-the production the Sox have gotten from everyone else on the team is as expected.

-therefore, the Sox have been unlucky this year.

Is this a correct interpretation of your quote?

[Toro]

"JULIO LUGO FOR SS BABY!"

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i mean when your two corner outfielders (one of whom is the a top 3 RHH of the past decade) combine for less than 50 extra base hits, clearly you are fortunate. when your starting SS and CF hit at like 25% of their career norms, clearly you just have to thank the gods for the luck bestowed upon them.


[/ QUOTE ]

ok just so we're clear, what you're saying is the following:

-the production the Sox have gotten from Lugo, Crisp, Manny, and Drew is way down.

-the production the Sox have gotten from everyone else on the team is as expected.

-therefore, the Sox have been unlucky this year.

Is this a correct interpretation of your quote?

[/ QUOTE ]

i never said they were unlucky. however they are FAR from lucky this season (also fwiw, their record is right where it should be according to RS/RA and strength of schedule)

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
"JULIO LUGO FOR SS BABY!"

[/ QUOTE ]

here is a breakdown of you and me:

ill make a prediction based upon past performance about future results and look stupid at times.

you will be given data about past performance (see bellhorn 2004 discussion) and make stupid comments like a lot of the time.

anyone agree with this assessment?

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the part you guys have been waiting for:

I CONCEDE THAT THE STATEMENT I MADE ABOUT THE YANKEES BEING 2 GAMES OUT ON JULY 4th WAS WRONG. BY A LOT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't feel too bad about being wrong about that. You got half of the equation correct. That half being how the Sox performed since you made it. It was the other half of the equation that made you wrong, the Yankees pathetic performance. Thank goodness they have been playing so badly or the lead would be very uncomfortable right now.

If the goal were to win the East, I could be a very happy camper right now. But of course it is not. Maybe it's just a little team wide slump, but a month is a long time to be mediocre.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
i never said they were unlucky

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough.

I guess my point is that the overproduction from Lowell, Youk, Pedroia, Okerjeemer, Tavarez kinda cancels it out.

I mean every team in baseball has some players that aren't perforoming as well as they should be as well as some that are performing better than expected.

BTW, do you argree with my assessment that the Jays and Yanks have been very unlucky?

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't feel too bad about being wrong about that. You got half of the equation correct. That half being how the Sox performed since you made it. It was the other half of the equation that made you wrong, the Yankees pathetic performance. Thank goodness they have been playing so badly or the lead would be very uncomfortable right now.

If the goal were to win the East, I could be a very happy camper right now. But of course it is not. Maybe it's just a little team wide slump, but a month is a long time to be mediocre.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything you wrote here.