|
|
|||||||
| View Poll Results: who likes | |||
| check/call |
   
|
1 | 8.33% |
| bet/call |
  
|
5 | 41.67% |
| bet/3b |
  
|
5 | 41.67% |
| check/raise |
  
|
1 | 8.33% |
| bet/fold (NITS) |
  
|
0 | 0% |
| Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll | |||
 |
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
|
#1092
09-25-2007, 06:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
Guess ur trying to fold Jx? [/ QUOTE ] It seems like that should be the intent of a bluff here. You're ahead of his missed draws except Axcc 8xcc Jxcc and you're ahead of most of his floats. He's not folding an ace and you'll even get stubborn calls from JT+ a decent amount of the time. The only better hands I can see folding frequently are 77 99 and TT. So you need to know that villain is capable of folding a hand like QJ here and that it makes up a significant portion of his range for me to like this bluff. 
|
|
#1093
09-25-2007, 08:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Guess ur trying to fold Jx? [/ QUOTE ] It seems like that should be the intent of a bluff here. You're ahead of his missed draws except Axcc 8xcc Jxcc and you're ahead of most of his floats. He's not folding an ace and you'll even get stubborn calls from JT+ a decent amount of the time. The only better hands I can see folding frequently are 77 99 and TT. So you need to know that villain is capable of folding a hand like QJ here and that it makes up a significant portion of his range for me to like this bluff. [/ QUOTE ] 8x could make a weak stab/block here. But u have good points, It's not hugely +EV in any case.
|
|
#1094
09-25-2007, 08:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
This is actually something I've thought about, but haven't had any meaningfull discussion about.
The merit of the value bluff raise... Here, there is the good possibility your 66 is good, however, there's a possibility its not. But, some of the hands that do in fact have you beat will fold. Jx will fold some %, Ax never, other pps and mp will fold a lot. So, although we feel strongly our hand is good enough to warrant a call, is it more +EV to raise?
|
|
#1095
09-25-2007, 09:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
So, although we feel strongly our hand is good enough to warrant a call, is it more +EV to raise? [/ QUOTE ] This was essentially the second thought that entered my mind. My first thought was "I know a blocking bet when I see one."
|
|
#1097
09-25-2007, 10:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
Here, there is the good possibility your 66 is good, however, there's a possibility its not. But, some of the hands that do in fact have you beat will fold. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed [ QUOTE ] Jx will fold some %, Ax never, other pps and mp will fold a lot. [/ QUOTE ] At 25nl I doubt we're seeing bets from 8x/7s/9s/Ts very often and at 25nl I think Jx calls a lot. Now given some river aggression stats I think a raise can become good because there are some donks who will fire 8s or whatever and fold to a raise, but I think your average 25nl player is too passive to bet with anything less than a J often and calls too much for us to count on him folding it.
|
|
#1098
09-25-2007, 10:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
This is actually something I've thought about, but haven't had any meaningfull discussion about. The merit of the value bluff raise... Here, there is the good possibility your 66 is good, however, there's a possibility its not. But, some of the hands that do in fact have you beat will fold. Jx will fold some %, Ax never, other pps and mp will fold a lot. So, although we feel strongly our hand is good enough to warrant a call, is it more +EV to raise? [/ QUOTE ] If we call, we beat bluffs only, and that's it. Now if we raise, we beat bluffs of course, and we beat whatever else we can fold out, which is a decent percentage I think for this weak blocking-type bet (although we really need some reads here). But we lose more when we lose. You really have to run through all the math here, but I'm far too lazy to do that. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
|
|
#1099
09-26-2007, 12:43 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
If we call, we beat bluffs only, and that's it. Now if we raise, we beat bluffs of course, and we beat whatever else we can fold out, which is a decent percentage I think for this weak blocking-type bet (although we really need some reads here). [/ QUOTE ] Captain obvious. Of course it requires reads. Also I think classifying this as a blocking bet from a random 25nl player is silly
|
|
#1100
09-26-2007, 02:20 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: River bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If we call, we beat bluffs only, and that's it. Now if we raise, we beat bluffs of course, and we beat whatever else we can fold out, which is a decent percentage I think for this weak blocking-type bet (although we really need some reads here). [/ QUOTE ] Captain obvious. Of course it requires reads. Also I think classifying this as a blocking bet from a random 25nl player is silly [/ QUOTE ] Well I'm sorry I offended your sense of propriety. Also sometimes I talk out of the side of my mouth. Thanks for inviting a pleasant discussion. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
|
|
|
|
Linear Mode
