Folding pocket rockets pf

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

For a non-professional married guy, whose wife saw that he was up around 8 grand just before they were to leave, it's an easy fold.

<shrug> In that case, his first mistake was not walking away from the table once his wife saw he was up $8K. Folding the AA was mistake #2. But, you see, regardless of the marital situation, folding the AA shows beyond a shadow of a doubt he's a bad player, thus as a bad player, he should take the money and run. But, being a bad player, he'll fold those aces and hang around, playing more speculative hands that don't "scare" him, and gradually lose a lot of that money.

[DoomSlice]

The ONLY possible reason to fold this would be if you are extremely deep stacked and you are POSITIVE that you can get them all in when you have a much larger edge (like most of them drawing dead).

However... this is a HORRIBLE play in 99.99999999% of all situations.

[PMoney]

You are right in think your chances of winning are less BUT you have a lesser chance of winning a much biiger pot. I see your logic in folding in that the more people in the pot the less % chance you have to win against a random hand in that (% aren't exact)

Against 1 player - 85% chance to win
Against 2 player - 74% chance to win
Against 3 plauer - 65% chance to win
Against 4 player - 56% chance to win
Against 5 player - 49% chance to win
Against 6 plauer - 45% chance to win

But you are failing to see the outcome (or net profit) in the long run of calling in each of this situations. Lets say you put $100 in the pot. Then your long run return will be that you win a net of $70 (85% of $200 less 100) everytime. But the more people the more the return in that the net won each scenario is greater with more people in the pot in the long term is

Against 1 player - 85% of $200 = $170 - less $100 = $ 70
Against 2 players - 74% of $300 = $222 - less $100 = $122
Against 3 players - 65% of $400 = $260 - less $100 = $160
Against 4 players - 56% of $500 = $280 - less $100 = $180
Against 5 players - 49% of $600 = $294 - less $100 = $194
Against 6 players - 45% of $700 = $311 - less $100 = $211
Against 7 players - 39% of $800 = $312 - less $100 = $206

So since you have a net profit in the long run you must call in all situations.

[Cuthbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not fold pocket aces, preflop, under any circumstances.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) You've been playing all night, and have built your stack from $15K to $24,930. There's a man in the parking lot who's going to kill you when you walk out, unless you hand him $25k.

2) Your only son has Finsterbueler's Syndrome, and needs a new spleen. You are a diseased gambler, and just as you look down and discover pocket aces, you have a moment of clarity and say to yourself, "My God! I'm playing poker with my son's spleen money!"

3) You have a mystical experience, and it is revealed to you that the player across the table is an earthly avatar of the Hindu god Shiva, who has decided to bring this cycle of the universe to a close if his kings aren't good here.

4) Just as you're about to push all your chips into the middle, the dealer says "Now, remember: threes, nines and red face cards are wild, queen on the board buys everybody an extra card down, and low club in the hole splits the pot."

See? You just didn't take your analysis far enough...

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
why no?

[/ QUOTE ]

of the times you face 5 opponents w/ AA, what % of those times do will your aces be against exactly:

[ QUOTE ]
AA vs KQs vs JTd vs 98c vs 76h

[/ QUOTE ]

???

-Barron

[Trainwreck]

Chip leader? You got tournament mentality at 1/2 NL, lose that...

Bad fold . I am sure the dozens of other messages have explained it.

-TW

[MikeSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you read these players as playing absolute junk, you probably had them all dominated, in that most of the cards that make their hand will make a better hand for you.

The odds that your hand holds up would certainly justify the call with roughly 4-1 odds (depending on the other chip stacks).

[/ QUOTE ]

who gives a crap about reads in this situation, easy call

[AncientPC]

If this was a tournament and you were either close to ITM then it might be a good move.

Otherwise folding is one of the most retarded moves ever, call the all-in's every time.

[ptavv]

I guess I should have folded these aces pre flop (two back to back hands at a final table in a PS tournament).

PokerStars Game #4036757391: Tournament #20002154, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2006/02/20 - 08:41:00 (ET)
Table '20002154 21' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: coghill1982 (124444 in chips)
Seat 2: stacksanchez (34172 in chips)
Seat 5: PokerSwede2 (43467 in chips)
Seat 7: Pickles7 (56436 in chips)
Seat 8: Somal (39442 in chips)
Seat 9: ptavv (92039 in chips)
coghill1982: posts the ante 150
stacksanchez: posts the ante 150
PokerSwede2: posts the ante 150
Pickles7: posts the ante 150
Somal: posts the ante 150
ptavv: posts the ante 150
coghill1982: posts small blind 1500
stacksanchez: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ptavv [As Ac]
PokerSwede2: folds
Pickles7: raises 9000 to 12000
Somal: folds
ptavv: calls 12000
coghill1982: folds
stacksanchez: folds
*** FLOP *** [9d Ts Qs]
Pickles7: bets 21000
ptavv: raises 58889 to 79889 and is all-in
Pickles7: calls 23286 and is all-in
Pickles7 said, "nh"
*** TURN *** [9d Ts Qs] [3d]
PokerSwede2 said, "nice"
*** RIVER *** [9d Ts Qs 3d] [6d]
PokerSwede2 said, "ooooooch"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Pickles7: shows [Kd Ad] (a flush, Ace high)
ptavv: shows [As Ac] (a pair of Aces)
coghill1982 said, "ouch"
Pickles7 collected 117972 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 117972 | Rake 0
Board [9d Ts Qs 3d 6d]
Seat 1: coghill1982 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: stacksanchez (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: PokerSwede2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Pickles7 showed [Kd Ad] and won (117972) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: Somal folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: ptavv (button) showed [As Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces



PokerStars Game #4036760597: Tournament #20002154, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2006/02/20 - 08:41:53 (ET)
Table '20002154 21' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: coghill1982 (122794 in chips)
Seat 2: stacksanchez (31022 in chips)
Seat 5: PokerSwede2 (43317 in chips)
Seat 7: Pickles7 (117972 in chips)
Seat 8: Somal (39292 in chips)
Seat 9: ptavv (35603 in chips)
coghill1982: posts the ante 150
stacksanchez: posts the ante 150
PokerSwede2: posts the ante 150
Pickles7: posts the ante 150
Somal: posts the ante 150
ptavv: posts the ante 150
stacksanchez: posts small blind 1500
PokerSwede2: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ptavv [Ah Ad]
ptavv said, "..."
Pickles7: folds
Somal: raises 6000 to 9000
ptavv: calls 9000
coghill1982: folds
stacksanchez: folds
PokerSwede2: folds
*** FLOP *** [8c 9h Jc]
Pickles7 said, "apologies ptavv"
Somal: bets 30142 and is all-in
ptavv: calls 26453 and is all-in
ptavv said, "twice?"
coghill1982 said, "aa again"
*** TURN *** [8c 9h Jc] [Qd]
ptavv said, "ROFL"
PokerSwede2 said, "again!!!"
*** RIVER *** [8c 9h Jc Qd] [Kc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Somal: shows [Th Ts] (a straight, Nine to King)
ptavv: shows [Ah Ad] (a pair of Aces)
Somal said, "yikes"
coghill1982 said, "ouch"
Somal collected 76306 from pot
Somal said, "GG PTav"
PokerSwede2 said, "SPANK ME!!!! baby oh yeah"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 76306 | Rake 0
Board [8c 9h Jc Qd Kc]
Seat 1: coghill1982 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: stacksanchez (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: PokerSwede2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Pickles7 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Somal showed [Th Ts] and won (76306) with a straight, Nine to King
Seat 9: ptavv showed [Ah Ad] and lost with a pair of Aces

[morphball]

Why can't this thread die already???