*** Official St Louis Cardinals to the 2006 World Series Thread *** - Page 108

New001 · #**1071** 09-29-2006, 12:47 AM

Yes, because you keep declining to realize or aren't capable of realizing that being 5 games back but behind 7 different teams is different than being 5 games back of a single team.

Aceshigh7 · #**1072** 09-29-2006, 12:49 AM

Not when you have a good amount of time left in the season. One decent sustained run can close that gap alot faster than most seem to realize. I watched it happen the last two seasons. That's why I felt confident it could happen again. It was definitely possible and likely that this team would go on a run some time this year sooner or later. It may not have been enough to make the playoffs (and it still remains to be seen what's going to happen in this last weekend, but it's looking real good), but I figured the Astros would likely be right there in the mix at the end.

MinRaise · #**1073** 09-29-2006, 01:11 AM

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Not when you have a good amount of time left in the season. One decent sustained run can close that gap alot faster than most seem to realize. I watched it happen the last two seasons. That's why I felt confident it could happen again. It was definitely possible and likely that this team would go on a run some time this year sooner or later. It may not have been enough to make the playoffs (and it still remains to be seen what's going to happen in this last weekend, but it's looking real good), but I figured the Astros would likely be right there in the mix at the end.

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Congrats to the Astros for putting together a nine game winning streak, but it would mean nothing if the Cards had gone 3-6 rather than 1-8. I commend the Astros for making a run, but their season was as good as over when it started. The Astros have not been in the race (had a 10% or more chance at the playoffs) since very early in the season until a few days ago. Saying otherwise is being the dillusional Astros fan that you are.

Aceshigh7 · #**1074** 09-29-2006, 01:19 AM

I think the 4 game sweep by the Astros had a thing or two to do with the Cardinals recent tailspin. The Cards could have sealed the division by winning just one or two of those games, and they did play well, but the Astros gutted out each and every game. That was a hard fought series on both sides.

Also, I think it's pretty hilarious that some people are under the delusion that baseball can be quantified in such a way that a team's chance of winning or making the playoffs can be put into percentages.

shemp · #**1075** 09-29-2006, 01:38 AM

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Also, I think it's pretty hilarious that some people are under the delusion that baseball can be quantified in such a way that a team's chance of winning or making the playoffs can be put into percentages.

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That's what I keep trying to explain to bookies.

crockpot · #**1076** 09-29-2006, 01:45 AM

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Also, I think it's pretty hilarious that some people are under the delusion that baseball can be quantified in such a way that a team's chance of winning or making the playoffs can be put into percentages.

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you are an idiot. if you're sure you're so much smarter than everyone in vegas, go quit your job and get rich.

MyTurn2Raise · #**1077** 09-29-2006, 02:25 AM

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I think the 4 game sweep by the Astros had a thing or two to do with the Cardinals recent tailspin. The Cards could have sealed the division by winning just one or two of those games, and they did play well, but the Astros gutted out each and every game. That was a hard fought series on both sides.

Also, I think it's pretty hilarious that some people are under the delusion that baseball can be quantified in such a way that a team's chance of winning or making the playoffs can be put into percentages.

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the Cards did not play well in Houston

it wasn't a hard faught series

your whole last paragraph is laughable

RunDownHouse · #**1078** 09-29-2006, 04:38 AM

Ugh. There wasn't a single post by AcesHigh for a solid month, and now he's back saying he's been supremely confident the whole time?

I feel sick, and I can't tell whether its more the painful choke by the Cards or its AcesHigh. Some combination ftw?

Aceshigh7 · #**1079** 09-29-2006, 06:09 AM

A few things to clear up...

The Cards did play well in Houston.

The notion that it's possible to accurately place percentage odds on teams to make the playoffs in baseball is a fallacy.

I have been posting the entire time. See for yourself.

I did start to lose hope a few weeks ago, and I posted that fact.

I said this year's Cardinals team was drastically inferior to the last two years. I was shouted down and ridiculed earlier on. Now alot of Cards fans are saying the same thing.

I said the Astros would make a run. They took their own sweet time but they finally did.

I'm tired of the squabbling. Let's just enjoy this last weekend's worth of games. Should be fun.

crockpot · #**1080** 09-29-2006, 08:07 AM

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The notion that it's possible to accurately place percentage odds on teams to make the playoffs in baseball is a fallacy.

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i think it's a fallacy that you can accurately approximate your chances of winning a poker hand. it's much better to just call if you've gotten lucky the last few hands and fold if you're running bad.

the 2% chance the astros had a week ago reflected a range of possibilities, which included the very remote chance of an undefeated week combined with an utter collapse from the cardinals. if the cards won any of the four games against the astros where they were tied or ahead in the seventh or later, they would now be in a commanding position with a 2.5 game lead. the probability of dropping four games in a row like this alone is around the same 2% you're quibbling over.

playing baseball is not like flipping a weighted coin. if it was, why bother to play or watch? however, the money lines the sportsbook generates are designed to reflect (almost) all the possible outcomes, with additional weight for the more likely ones. clemens replaces hirsh as houston's starting pitcher tonight? a dominant performance is more likely, and houston's chances of winning go up. your team is behind 8.5 games with 12 to play? it doesn't matter how good you are or how bad your opponent is, you are a humongous underdog.

if your opponent's strategy is to randomly bluff 2% of the time, and you call anyway and catch him bluffing, it doesn't mean that he's now doing it much more than 2%. you could have just picked the right hand to call him. maybe his bluffing frequency is actually 1% or 3%; it's still better to approximate it at 2% than to make no guess at all.

i'm not saying any more on this subject. it should be obvious to everyone else in the thread that you are wrong.