Official August thread: General Discussion, Goals, Winrates, etc

[punter11235]

"Running bad" is overused at this forum.
You guys just play bad. I played enough hand to know it. When Iam playing good I have on avg one losing day out of 10 and when I am playing bad I have on avg one winning day out of 10. There is no "running" at MSNL. 10k hand break even stretch is almost sure sign that something is bad with your play. They will happen if you play good but they will be very very rare.

[TheWorstPlayer]

there is running bad. running bad leads to playing bad. playing bad leads to downswings.

[punter11235]

I agree TWP but when the "playing bad" part plays its role its no longer "running". If you play good your expected WR at MSNL should be about 5-6ptbb/100 at least. Its just too high to have say 20k breakeven stretch. I think almost all downswing longer than 15k hands are due to playing bad.
The thing is diffrent at higher levels because your expected WR is not nearly as high unless you are a dragon or something.

[HP]

sup all, I've been out of the loop, what's been happening the last like 4 months?

I'm in Irkutsk right now but in a week or two I think I'll settle down in Sweden maybe for a few months where I'll take my decimated roll of 4k and hop back into MSNL

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree TWP but when the "playing bad" part plays its role its no longer "running". If you play good your expected WR at MSNL should be about 5-6ptbb/100 at least. Its just too high to have say 20k breakeven stretch. I think almost all downswing longer than 15k hands are due to playing bad.
The thing is diffrent at higher levels because your expected WR is not nearly as high unless you are a dragon or something.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree. When playing 'A game' I rarely have a down session even after dumping the requisite buyin or two to stupid bluffs. But I know that getting hit by 4 or 5 2-4 outers will cause me to play a lot worse sometimes. So it is true that I lost 4 or 5 buyins to bad beats. But that would only make it a 2-3 buyin downswing if i were up a bit. But then it becomes a 5-8 buyin downswing due to bad play...

[AJFenix]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree TWP but when the "playing bad" part plays its role its no longer "running". If you play good your expected WR at MSNL should be about 5-6ptbb/100 at least. Its just too high to have say 20k breakeven stretch. I think almost all downswing longer than 15k hands are due to playing bad.
The thing is diffrent at higher levels because your expected WR is not nearly as high unless you are a dragon or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Punter , I disagree, and I think you are severely underestimating variance. A player with a long term 5ptbb winrate in their game can have breakeven stretches longer than that, WHILE playing their 5ptbb-expectation game. It WILL be less likely the higher the winrate, though, of course.

That being said, I do agree that people overuse the term and philosophy, and not to knock on the "Smart LAGs", but they are regularly throwing money away in certain spots, therefor lowering their expected winrate, and the lower the winrate the rowdier the variancemobile will get. This goes beyond just smart lags, it goes for everyone. Someone playing ABC 123 poker with a 3ptbb winrate is passing up on money in certain spots. That means not making up for his losses as much as he could be. A lot of things go into that 3ptbb winrate. Money passed up is money lost, just as is money spewed. Money saved is money earned. It all goes towards the greater good.


edit: the math shows that the VERY BOTTOM (bottom 1%) of the variance rollercoaster for a 5ptbb winner with a 45bb/100 standard deviation would be a 54000 hand breakeven stretch. Heres the website if you wanna check diff possibilities for yourself.

[philipsaurus]

[ QUOTE ]
10k hand break even stretch is almost sure sign that something is bad with your play.

[/ QUOTE ]

from now on, everything you say has zero validity whatsoever.

[billyjex]

LOL DONKAMENTS

chopped a 109r on stars for $12k last night so i'm probably break even on tournametns for the month

still making good $$$ at 5/10

good month

[junglewarfare]

[ QUOTE ]
"Running bad" is overused at this forum.
You guys just play bad. I played enough hand to know it. When Iam running good I have on avg one losing day out of 10 and when I am playing bad I have on avg one winning day out of 10. There is no "running" at MSNL. 10k hand break even stretch is almost sure sign that something is bad with your play. They will happen if you play good but they will be very very rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

punter I sort of agree with your viewpoint, most of the bad stretches people post are very much influenced by bad play but you are really really exaggerating by calling a 10K breakeven stretch "very very rare". I definitely see your point though, a lot of the time when people post a graph and say "look at this insane downswing i am running soooo bad", a lot of it is bad play.

I also think that part of the ups and downs of poker and luck is sometimes you get dealt a session that is impossible to deal with and that induces you to play worse, and sometimes you run really good which is conducive to keep your A game going. Obviously being able to keep your A game on even when things are going badly is a definite skill, but to a certain degree what game you are bringing to the table is influenced by how you are running.

[MilkMan]

[ QUOTE ]
10k hand break even stretch is almost sure sign that something is bad with your play.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah the innocence of it all