Big Stacked AKs

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
shoveeeeeeeeeeeee. Theres 4500 in the pot and he has 5400 behind. We have a big draw, just stick it in there. We cant play pot control or anything like that. The pot is big enough to take it now ,,,shoveeeee (or bet 4k, same thing)...

[/ QUOTE ]

i said this on page 2

it is still the correct thing to do.

Sherman i get what ur saying, but your wrong.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't say FE. I said equity. Something like..

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.016 secs 3,155,625 games/sec

Board: Tc 7c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.305% 41.20% 00.11% 20801 54.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 58.695% 58.59% 00.11% 29581 54.00 { QQ+, TT, ATs, A7s, KTs, QTs, ATo, A7o, KTo, QTo }

3:2 getting nearly 2:1 for his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, this only proves that a push is +EV - which was never doubted. What it does not prove (but Sherman assumes - and I admit that I now believe it) is, that a check and push/call on the turn is even more +EV for those hands of your range which Villain will happily fold against your push but maybe bluff-shoves on the turn.

Second - where did you take your range from?? We haven´t seen Villain doing anything but raising and calling our reraise preflop. Why do you assume that he may hold A7o but you exclude A8o (just as an example)? This is simply result oriented - looking at the board. If you wanted to prove that even with this "worst" range a shove is +EV you´re right again but again you miss the important argument that Villain will fold many hands (like AQs which must definitely be in his range according to your list) but with which he might bluff-shove the turn - giving us a significant amount of extra money.

[woohoo88]

Re-read my posts. That range is a very specific part of the range that would have called preflop to push any flop (well except QQ+), which instead decided to check/shove because he hit.

[sah_24]

this turned into quite a post great discussion here!!!

But im still wit the majority that im shovin this flop, and it also a very good possibility villain could have AKo and ur only one drawin live.

[SonofDjugashvili]

[ QUOTE ]
I followed this post from the beginning and was quite convinced that Sherman was wrong. Now, I´ve changed my mind - which means that now I strongly believe that Sherman is right. The key in his logic (for me) is that he made his decision on the flop. This eliminates the question of odds &amp; outs on the turn and maximizes the possible winnings (while it by definition is <u>very</u> unlikely to maximize our losses).

@Sherman: my respect, I needed some time to get this!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I get it - if you evaluate the hand as a whole, checking the flop is positive EV. But once the turn bricks, you've lost 15 of your ~30 outs (best case scenario), so who cares about overall +EV??? If he shoves now, you are a huge dog against a made hand. What are the pokerstove numbers on the turn with 1 card to come?

[BarryLyndon]

OK, so, let's discuss FE here, since that seems to be another concept that people seem to disagree on.

Blinds are 150/300
Villain is down to ~4500 on the flop after raising and calling a three bet.
When villain calls that three bet with 4500 left, OOP, he's really praying for a dry board here, so he can get his 88(?), 99 in. Or he's trapping. Or, he has AQ and is hoping for an A.
The flop is: 10c 7c 7x.

When villain checks with his mid pair, and you push, and he has to put in 4500 into, like what, 13500, what do you think he's gonna do with 88/99?

If this were a satellite/ITM bubble, then there would be more FE and would be an extremely easy shove. AS played, I still like a check.

Barry

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I followed this post from the beginning and was quite convinced that Sherman was wrong. Now, I´ve changed my mind - which means that now I strongly believe that Sherman is right. The key in his logic (for me) is that he made his decision on the flop. This eliminates the question of odds &amp; outs on the turn and maximizes the possible winnings (while it by definition is <u>very</u> unlikely to maximize our losses).

@Sherman: my respect, I needed some time to get this!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I get it - if you evaluate the hand as a whole, checking the flop is positive EV. But once the turn bricks, you've lost 15 of your ~30 outs (best case scenario), so who cares about overall +EV??? If he shoves now, you are a huge dog against a made hand. What are the pokerstove numbers on the turn with 1 card to come?

[/ QUOTE ]

They are the same as on the flop! You don't know what card will come on the turn, the numbers are the exact same! That's whole point. You don't know what will come on the turn. Many have speculated, "But what if the turn bricks?". But what if it doesn't! What if a flush card hits and villain shoves? I mean, we can speculate all day about turn cards, but the fact is, we don't know what the turn card will be so we can't calculate it. I suppose you could calculate it for every possible turn card, but you would get the same result!

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shoveeeeeeeeeeeee. Theres 4500 in the pot and he has 5400 behind. We have a big draw, just stick it in there. We cant play pot control or anything like that. The pot is big enough to take it now ,,,shoveeeee (or bet 4k, same thing)...

[/ QUOTE ]

i said this on page 2

it is still the correct thing to do.

Sherman i get what ur saying, but your wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

ZJ,
You know I respect the hell out of your posts (Adam's as well). But no one has shown me math that demonstrates I am wrong. In fact, the only math that was done in this thread was by me, and it clearly demonstrates that I cannot be wrong. Some even tried to poke holes in that math and they only furthered my point.

BTW, someone mentioned something about if this were deep stacked. If this were deepstacked, I would always c-bet. Most of my argument in this thread has to do with the fact that we are already comitted to the pot.

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so, let's discuss FE here, since that seems to be another concept that people seem to disagree on.

Blinds are 150/300
Villain is down to ~4500 on the flop after raising and calling a three bet.
When villain calls that three bet with 4500 left, OOP, he's really praying for a dry board here, so he can get his 88(?), 99 in. Or he's trapping. Or, he has AQ and is hoping for an A.
The flop is: 10c 7c 7x.

When villain checks with his mid pair, and you push, and he has to put in 4500 into, like what, 13500, what do you think he's gonna do with 88/99?

If this were a satellite/ITM bubble, then there would be more FE and would be an extremely easy shove. AS played, I still like a check.

Barry

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget FE

We're 55-45 in this hand. Take out the time we're only 33% if he has a set or AA KK and the times we're 75% because we have him dominated. They are a wash.

1. We aren't folding.
2. We have the edge.
3. He isn't folding 80% or more of his hands
4. There's 13.5k in the pot.

Shove. Take it down now or when we hit it.

Anything else is FPS... just shove. Sheesh.

[SonofDjugashvili]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I followed this post from the beginning and was quite convinced that Sherman was wrong. Now, I´ve changed my mind - which means that now I strongly believe that Sherman is right. The key in his logic (for me) is that he made his decision on the flop. This eliminates the question of odds &amp; outs on the turn and maximizes the possible winnings (while it by definition is <u>very</u> unlikely to maximize our losses).

@Sherman: my respect, I needed some time to get this!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I get it - if you evaluate the hand as a whole, checking the flop is positive EV. But once the turn bricks, you've lost 15 of your ~30 outs (best case scenario), so who cares about overall +EV??? If he shoves now, you are a huge dog against a made hand. What are the pokerstove numbers on the turn with 1 card to come?

[/ QUOTE ]

They are the same as on the flop! You don't know what card will come on the turn, the numbers are the exact same! That's whole point. You don't know what will come on the turn. Many have speculated, "But what if the turn bricks?". But what if it doesn't! What if a flush card hits and villain shoves? I mean, we can speculate all day about turn cards, but the fact is, we don't know what the turn card will be so we can't calculate it. I suppose you could calculate it for every possible turn card, but you would get the same result!

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you missed my point. If the turn bricks, why are you still committed to calling a shove? I'll try again. Your options are:

1) Shove flop
2) Check flop &amp; call/shove any turn
3) Check flop &amp; fold on turn

I'm just saying that I'm not calling a shove on the turn if it misses you. My argument is it's 50/50 whether to check/shove flop, but if I check and the turn bricks, I am folding to a shove, since I am a huge dog to any made hand, and the increased likelihood of a bluff does not make up for the loss of 15 outs.