MONSTER variance (w/ graphs) - Page 10

Bluffman · #91 05-16-2007, 11:24 PM

that graph yours kahntruhan?

___1___ · #92 05-16-2007, 11:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
that graph yours kahntruhan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty sure that's BK's.

___1___

bicyclekick · #93 05-17-2007, 04:24 AM

I don't think it's my graph and after further review I'm pretty sure my downswing was 1000bb.

hoppscot22 · #94 05-17-2007, 07:23 AM

that looks like about a 1100-1200 bb dswing, sick

kahntrutahn · #95 05-17-2007, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
that graph yours kahntruhan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I own that graph of hell. And it was HELL.

kahntrutahn · #96 05-17-2007, 01:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
schneids how often would you estimate you incur a 100bb downswing? once every x hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak for schneids, but I have one every 3 days or so.

Bluffman · #97 05-17-2007, 01:31 PM

zomg, what this all at 50-100+ kahntrutahn?

if so, nooooooose!

kahntrutahn · #98 05-17-2007, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
zomg, what this all at 50-100+ kahntrutahn?

if so, nooooooose!

[/ QUOTE ]

Naa, its old. It was back when I 7 tabled 5/10, 4 tabled 10/20, or 3 tabled 20/40. Mostly a mix. But as I recall, I dropped to 3/6 and 2/4 and still got owned by the deck repeatedly. Basically, I lost 200+BB at every limit I played at the time.

I've never popped the -100k cherry. VERY close on multiple occasions (9x losses), but I dropped down and recovered just in time to save my sanity each time.

AndyatSD · #99 05-17-2007, 04:56 PM

(Disclaimer - I've never used a hand history converter so if this comes out weird oops)

Hock,

While I was at work today I was sent a number of hands that you played this morning. When I looked at it I thought of this thread - maybe this is the kind of style that increases the probability of a huge swing? I don't doubt that you're a winning player - but I'm just wondering what your rationale on some of these hands are. It certainly isn't pre-flop mathematics, but I find it hard to believe if you are doing this solely based on the fact that you believe you have a huge edge post-flop. Any comments on it?

Cold Cap 33 Preflop against UTG raiser and 2-hole 3 better? How can that possibly be?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
UTG raises, MP 3-bets, Button :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, doughnutz raises, UTG folds, MP 3-bets, doughnutz calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, doughnutz calls.

River: (11.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, doughnutz bets, MP calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP has Qc Qd (one pair, queens).
doughnutz has 3h 3d (flush, jack high).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 13.75 BB. 

---

Flop call is purely trying to make a move on the turn or river? If so, I didn't really see a move - and calling the flop based on mathematics would have been fairly atrocius.

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
3 folds, SB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ raises, BB 3-bets, SB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz checks, BB bets, doughnutz calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz checks, BB bets, doughnutz calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz checks, BB bets, doughnutz raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: 
doughnutz has 3s 5s (flush, ace high).
BB has Ac Qs (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 10 BB. 
---

Is calling 2 more bets with Ax (where x=trash) the conventional norm now? I think the probability of running into bigger Ax or pocket pair bigger than X is just way too big - obviously you disagree since I saw multiple hand histories where you did this?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
UTG raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, BB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, doughnutz raises, UTG folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, doughnutz bets, SB raises, doughnutz 3-bets, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, doughnutz bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Jh Jc (two pair, jacks and sevens).
doughnutz has 3d Ac (full house, threes full of sevens).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 14.50 BB. 

---

On the other hand - while A2s isn't in my range of opening hands UTG I suppose it's fine if it's in yours - I'm just curious about the turn call. Can that really be profitable play? You already risk drawing dead or extremely slim?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
UTG :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ raises, MP 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ caps, MP calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz bets, MP calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz bets, MP raises, doughnutz calls.

River: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
doughnutz bets, MP calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Results in white below: 
doughnutz has 2s As (two pair, aces and fives).
MP has Ks Kh (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 11.75 BB. 
---

I'm just very confused - maybe someone else can enlighten me - what's the merit behind these hands? I'd like to be able to add that to my game : )

~andy

HOWMANY · #**100** 05-17-2007, 05:19 PM

These all look like monkey tilt to me, which is probably why I'm so bad.