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#91
01-03-2006, 06:19 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
[ QUOTE ]
Probability does work, things even out, [/ QUOTE ] If you flip a coin a lot of times, the amount of heads and tails will NOT even out. When you divide the amount of tails by the amount of heads it will get closer to one the more times you throw, but in fact, the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails will increase the more you throw. Peter |
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#92
01-03-2006, 06:20 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row. [/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events! [/ QUOTE ] Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU... You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails. Sound like a deal? [/ QUOTE ] Lol, we'll be sitting at that table for a long time. Plus I'm not saying its impossible for that coin to come up heads on the 20th flip, just more unlikely than tails. So 100:1 is a little steep. I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though. [/ QUOTE ] Think about WTF you are saying. How is it possible for a NORMAL [censored] COIN to have any other probablity than 50/50? There are only two equal sides it could land on, jackass. [/ QUOTE ] I seriously fail to see your point, in fact, your'e helping to make my point. There are only two sides for it to fall on, and it should fall on them a roughly equal amount of time. Therefore if it has fallen a lot on one side, it will need to even out eventually in this "long run" that everyone keeps talking about. No need to be rude. <font color="white"> </font> [/ QUOTE ] I am helping make your point? BAAAHAHAHAHAH Two sides, it lands on one or the other. The coin has no brain or memory. Your problem is you don't realize how the long the long run is. Yes things will even out but the long run is infinite. You are the same guy that doubles his bet when he loses a hand in Blackjack. I bet you think that is a winning system too don't you? |
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#93
01-03-2006, 06:20 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And casinos make billions of dollars a year because of dumb tourists who stand on 16's versus a dealer showing ten. [/ QUOTE ] WRONG!!! They make millions off of ignorant idiots like yourself. [/ QUOTE ] Once again, do you know me? I don't think so. Therefore you have no idea how much I've won or lost at a casino. I've had quite a few large winning sessions employing a very simple strategy at roulette, but you can believe whatever you want. Its the idiots who play wrong at blackjack and muck the deck up for everyone else that make the casinos billions. |
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#95
01-03-2006, 06:31 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
I think the OP is a troll but this page on the probability of independent events might help anyone not clear on this issue.
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/v...nt_events.html btw - roulette is for idiots. |
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#96
01-03-2006, 06:33 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row. [/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events! [/ QUOTE ] Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU... You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails. Sound like a deal? [/ QUOTE ] Lol, we'll be sitting at that table for a long time. Plus I'm not saying its impossible for that coin to come up heads on the 20th flip, just more unlikely than tails. So 100:1 is a little steep. I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though. [/ QUOTE ] Think about WTF you are saying. How is it possible for a NORMAL [censored] COIN to have any other probablity than 50/50? There are only two equal sides it could land on, jackass. [/ QUOTE ] I seriously fail to see your point, in fact, your'e helping to make my point. There are only two sides for it to fall on, and it should fall on them a roughly equal amount of time. Therefore if it has fallen a lot on one side, it will need to even out eventually in this "long run" that everyone keeps talking about. No need to be rude. <font color="white"> </font> [/ QUOTE ] I am helping make your point? BAAAHAHAHAHAH Two sides, it lands on one or the other. The coin has no brain or memory. Your problem is you don't realize how the long the long run is. Yes things will even out but the long run is infinite. You are the same guy that doubles his bet when he loses a hand in Blackjack. I bet you think that is a winning system too don't you? [/ QUOTE ] I know all about the Martingale and the reasons why it doesn't work. (I've spoken with quite a few blackjack dealers in my day). We are not talking about that system here. What I do isn't a "system" (I am well aware that there is no such thing as a winning system to beat the house). |
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#97
01-03-2006, 06:34 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And casinos make billions of dollars a year because of dumb tourists who stand on 16's versus a dealer showing ten. [/ QUOTE ] WRONG!!! They make millions off of ignorant idiots like yourself. [/ QUOTE ] Once again, do you know me? I don't think so. Therefore you have no idea how much I've won or lost at a casino. I've had quite a few large winning sessions employing a very simple strategy at roulette, but you can believe whatever you want. Its the idiots who play wrong at blackjack and muck the deck up for everyone else that make the casinos billions. [/ QUOTE ] I don't need to "know" you. I sit here and watch a bunch of intelligent people work this out step by step and you refuse to understand. I guess there is no hope for someone who is truly a moran. I'm sure your simple roullette strategy will make you rich forget about poker. |
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#99
01-03-2006, 06:35 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And casinos make billions of dollars a year because of dumb tourists who stand on 16's versus a dealer showing ten. [/ QUOTE ] WRONG!!! They make millions off of ignorant idiots like yourself. [/ QUOTE ] Once again, do you know me? I don't think so. Therefore you have no idea how much I've won or lost at a casino. I've had quite a few large winning sessions employing a very simple strategy at roulette, but you can believe whatever you want. Its the idiots who play wrong at blackjack and muck the deck up for everyone else that make the casinos billions. [/ QUOTE ] I don't need to "know" you. I sit here and watch a bunch of intelligent people work this out step by step and you refuse to understand. I guess there is no hope for someone who is truly a moran. I'm sure your simple roullette strategy will make you rich forget about poker. [/ QUOTE ] You spelled "moron" wrong. <font color="white">Go USA </font> Kind of delegitimizes your point, don't ya think? |
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#100
01-03-2006, 06:36 PM
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Re: Problem with your book
I can't believe this troll thread is still going.
Simple question for the OP to continue trolling on. How does the coin "remember" that it landed heads 19 times in a row? What if we after the 19 flips we swap the coin out? Does that ruin your "system" because now it's a different coin? Or does the new coin somehow also "know" the old coin flipped heads 19 in a row? |
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