Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games...

[dtbog]

If he had KK, he'd still win if a six fell. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You'd have (6K)66K, for sixes full of kings. He'd have (KK)66K, for kings full of sixes.

-DB

[Zetack]

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Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.

I'm not sure if this is a +EV move, or not. I usually wait until the BB unless I am going to be CO, then I take my chances.



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Ordinarily in a full handed game you pay the blind and the small blind to see ten hands. That's 1.5 small bets for ten hands or .15 small bets per hand. If you post in the Co you are paying 1 small bet to see seven hands. Thats .14 small bets per hand. Its a bargain!!! Plus if you hit a "BB special" you are actually in position for the entire hand.


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Flop: (24 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>

SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets . . .

Not great. Here's where I start hearing Ed's voice asking, "How big is the pot." And I "start thinking about how I am going to win it." Another 6? Runner-Runner for the flush? King? I have enough options and the pot is big enough to give me odds for these possibilities, so I'm in.


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Do you really need Ed to tell you this? Seem to me he's talking about even more marginal situations than this. At this point in the hand I certainly wouldn't have decided somebody has KK and I doubt they have 3,5 for the straight and so I'm thinking two pair ain't bad and trips would be great and the odds of hitting one of those is 8.5-1. Simple pot odds would seem to be enough to keep you playing when there are 24 small bets in the pot before anybody even start the flop betting.

Lets not forget that simple concept eh? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

--Zetack

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
If he had KK, he'd still win if a six fell. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You'd have (6K)66K, for sixes full of kings. He'd have (KK)66K, for kings full of sixes.

-DB

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Yeah, but the other guy had AK, so that would have been 5 K's!

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and probably some other stuff that I've been known to overlook.

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See what I mean? I tend to overlook stuff. That happens to me fairly often where where I do dumb things like re-raise the low end of a straight, or when I've hit my straight with 4 non-helpful suited cards on the board and stuff like that, but I am definitley getting better. And I win, alot for an idiot. Ok then, Planter's will have to be when you think you have the nuts, but you don't, but you win anyways.

Thanks for the correction. I wish my time to edit hadn't passed.

[Ed Miller]

Here is a repost of something I wrote on UPF to a couple people who were discussing this post.

************************************************

When I wrote this, I had no idea it would still be quoted six months hence. It was a specific plea for the specific players who posted on the Microlimit forum in January to stop folding hands like top pair or an overpair for one bet on the turn (often not even a raise... just a single bet) in huge (bigger than ten bet) pots simply because "I figured I had to be beaten somewhere." They were drawing totally irrational conclusions about the quality of their opponents' hands, and then making ridiculous and VERY expensive folds based on those conclusions.

The main problem these guys had was "Monsters Under the Bed" syndrome. They constantly overestimated the quality of their opponents' hands, and that left them always feeling like they were either drawing against a ton of outs if ahead, or drawing almost dead if behind. They didn't understand that people can bet weak hands and draws strongly sometimes... and that when the pot is big, you simply cannot allow yourself to be knocked off a good hand by someone with a weak draw.

If you have specific, credible evidence that your opponents in fact DO have the hands you fear, then fine... fold. My point is only that you really do need excellent evidence... don't just assume that you have to be beaten or someone (but I don't know who) simply MUST have had a flush draw.

Finally, a single turn bet is almost never specific, credible evidence. People screw around with turn bets (as opposed to turn 3-bets) all the time. Just because you raised the flop, and now they bet into you again on the turn, does NOT mean overwhelming strength.

BTW, I appreciate that you find my post thought-provoking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ed

[tyfromm]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a repost of something I wrote on UPF to a couple people who were discussing this post.

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What the hell are doing posting outside of 2+2?

We own your ass!

You can spam them to sell your book, but no advice for pete's sake!

[Saborion]

UPF?

[Sent]

I'm guessing United Poker Forum

http://www.unitedpokerforum.com/

-Sent

[Saborion]

Cool, thanks.

Gonna have to take a look at it later.

[Ed Miller]

We own your ass!

I don't think you should be running your mouth after missing your penalty.

[benfranklin]

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Just because you raised the flop, and now they bet into you again on the turn, does NOT mean overwhelming strength.
Ed

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In the average low limit game on Party, my experience in this situation is that the guy just made a decent pair, and has already forgotten that I raised on the flop.