Folding pocket rockets pf - Page 10

TomBrooks · #91 02-01-2006, 09:40 AM

Hi nat0,

I see this is your first post, although you have posted a second time in this thread. Welcome to the forums.

I haven't been playing poker that long. I have perhaps about 1500 hours of playing time and an equal or slightly greater amount of study time playing poker, so my experience is limited. But in that time what you describe is the worst play I've ever seen or heard of. I also suspect I may never hear of a worse play in relative terms if I play and study poker for the rest of my life. So you have had an influence on me and I will never forget this. I hope you do well in the future. Good luck.

TomBk

17thR2a1stP

amulet · #92 02-01-2006, 12:42 PM

smokes,

with all due respect, this is awful advice, and awful analysis.

unless you are in a tournament where several places all finish equally, like a super satellites, i can think of NO reason to muck AA preflop. i have actually mucked in preflop, in a super satellite with 7 players left, six seats given, and i was the chip leader, with two very short stacks who wouldn't get past the blinds.

up top i posted:
if you call, five of you are all in. therefore, if you win more then 20% of the time you show a profit. with aa you certainly win more then 20%. you are maximizing your expectation by calling. however, you also increase your fluctuations. if you can't afford short term swings i guess you can fold. but calling here shows a nice profit over your poker career, and is the correct play.

i wrote the above about a cash game about a cash game. however, if a tournament with escalating blinds it is rarely correct to fold AA. mathematically it almost can not be correct.

here is an example of a possible reason to fold AA. if your a player like phil ivy, in a small tournament, with low blinds, deep stacks, and you have a HUGE advantage over the field, if a bunch of players are all in, you might not want to play AA here, because you believe that you have a greater advantage in the rest of the tournament by folding. but even then.....

Black Aces 518 · #93 02-02-2006, 03:46 PM

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also, people on this board always seem to think everyone has limitless resources to go play again after they take a bad beat. most people don't, and one bad beat can be the end of someone's poker playing until the next payday.

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That person should move down in stakes. You can't have your whole bankroll at risk on one hand, good grief*.

*unless you are kurosh

HoldemPokerPlyr · #94 02-02-2006, 04:45 PM

Are we still on this topic? Haha.

-HoldemPokerPlyr

BillsChips · #95 02-02-2006, 05:33 PM

RE; Foxwoods 5/5 story

From your apparent disdain for "Middle-aged" guys, I'm going to assume you're an unmarried twenty-something. The Foxwoods story actually illustrates a case where it could be +EV to fold the aces. (No, I wouldn't do it, but here's my take on what that guy was probably thinking).

He's there with his wife so let's say poker is not his "career". He and his wife can leave Foxwoods up 7 grand which is incredible +EV for a married guy, giving him an excellent chance of coming back in the future, or he can play one more hand and risk it, double-or-nothing on a near coin flip. Talking his wife into another trip to FW after losing it all won't be so easy.

Black Aces 518 · #96 02-02-2006, 05:58 PM

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a near coin flip

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This word, I do not think it means what you think it does.

He paid $1000 to play a game. Four envelopes have $16000 in them and one has 0. For $1000 you can play. He turned it down. If he was not prepared to lose $1000, don't sit in the game.

Would he have folded top set if someone went all in and showed him a flush draw? That is a much riskier situation than allin pf with AA headsup.

fluorescenthippo · #97 02-06-2006, 06:55 AM

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i got bored and did a pokerstove analysis. AA vs AA vs KQs vs JTd vs 98c vs 76h. AA is only 15.1% equity, while putting in more than 16% of the money in the pot. If every player showed you this, easy fold.

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you have 30.2% equity

BillsChips · #98 02-06-2006, 01:10 PM

For a non-professional married guy, whose wife saw that he was up around 8 grand just before they were to leave, it's an easy fold. If you're not married you're not gonna understand this.

By the way...was at Foxwoods on Friday and had AA four times in 8 hours. Lost every one. That doesn't mean I'm not going to play them aggressively every time, but I can understand the guy's point of view.

Black Aces 518 · #99 02-06-2006, 01:19 PM

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For a non-professional married guy, whose wife saw that he was up around 8 grand just before they were to leave, it's an easy fold. If you're not married you're not gonna understand this.

By the way...was at Foxwoods on Friday and had AA four times in 8 hours. Lost every one. That doesn't mean I'm not going to play them aggressively every time, but I can understand the guy's point of view.

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I'm a non-professional married guy. And I fold never ever ever there. It's TERRIBLE. If $8000 is lifechanging for him, he shouldn't buyin $1000 for one night of poker. Period. I would be sick if I lost 8K, that's why I don't play $1000 buyin games.

Again, what if he had TT, and the flop comes T-7h-4h. Someone goes allin and has him covered. Fold here too? What if the guy flips up AhKh? Fold??? You're much smaller fave here than with AA headsup preflop, no matter what opp has. If you're going to fold a GUARANTEED 3-1 advantage minimum (the guy could have AK and you're over 9-1), then you need to rack up or sack up.

EDIT to add: Were all your AA allin preflop? We're not talking a situation where the guy has seen any other cards. He IS way ahead, for sure, 100% (disregarding that the other guy may have AA).

icemanjmw · #**100** 02-06-2006, 01:21 PM

When do you play, and can I come play with you?

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It depends what you want to do in a poker tournament. If you want to win a poker tournament, then you don't want to be folding aces preflop.

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P1: AsAc 1.8:1
P2: TdTh 0.2:1
P3: 8d7d 0.2:1

Everyone is all-in.

Against two other players with decent holdings aces are only a 2:1 favorite (on average). That means, if you make this play 3 times in the same tournament you will lose. Mathematically. You only need to lose once to be out of the tournament.

If you want to win a poker tournament you can't blindly go all-in with your aces. You need to pick your spots.

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