Hand vs stox

[bicyclekick]

5 handed crypto.

2 folds and stox raises on the button, sb folds, I call with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the bb.

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check, he bets, I c/r, he 3 bets, I 4 bet, he calls (no cap hu).

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

River 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises. 3 bet or call?

[JacksonTens]

My initial reaction was 3-bet. But I have since changed to call, as I don't want to fold to a 4-bet.

I'm thinking what does he think you have? You could be defending with any of the 2 pair flop hands. J9, J8, 98, a pair and straight draw or a set. Set is increasingly doubtful as you would have 3-bet PF. So stox has got to give you the 3 above or at least T9.

Stox may have AJ, and that would explain the behaviour on the flop, but I don't think he has it enough to make raising viable. So yeah b/c. Is my revised line.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PS I hate QTo 'the hand of doom'

[Josh W]

It would help to know if your Ten is a heart. If it is, I likely threebet. If it isn't, I call.

Josh

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
It would help to know if your Ten is a heart. If it is, I likely threebet. If it isn't, I call.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I edited my post to clarify. It wasn't a heart.

[J.A.Sucker]

Raise, but it's kind of close

[JacksonTens]

You think the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in your hand swings it that much?

I don't think the flush is that much of a threat to swing this decision I'm alot more inclined to think either Stox has a full haouse and wanted to raise the end because he figired bk would bet again or. stox maybe thinks bk has been counterfeited. Unlikely as he'd then have to have 98.

Even then stox would not raise as bk wouldn't pay off with a busted 2pair. Or would he? I'd imagine there would be a large degree of history between the two of you.

What do you do if the raise is on the turn? Is that an easy 3bet? Because if the turn is an easy 3bet the only thing swinging the decision is the third [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

JT

JT

[DpR]

This is pretty close I think. 67 suited seems pretty pretty possible. If the hearts didnt get there then this is easy 3 bet IMO. I have not played with stox a lot, but he doesnt come off to me as a player that is rasing particualrly light here.

Being as you get raised 100% by hands you are behind, I think a call is a little better. I guess you are ahead here pretty close to 60% so it is obviously a really close play. (I doubt stox has a boat here very frequently though).

[poker1O1]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise, but it's kind of close


[/ QUOTE ]
if we 3bet, are we folding to a 4bet? I'm really leaning towards calling here, the heart is kinda scary, and im not sure i see a player of his caliber calling a 3bet with a worse hand

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
You think the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in your hand swings it that much?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's obviously close. I mean, you yourself said you changed your mind in the middle of posting. It's close. Close enough that a few percentage points of probability can sway it.

After BK puts in a cap on the flop and leads the turn, I think Stox can rest assured that he (BK) won't fold to a turn raise, so I think Stox raises the turn with a boat.

Thus, I think that BK's biggest fear should be the flush. But how can Stox have a flush? Well, he could have something like A8h (maybe he plays it that way on the flop, I really dunno). Or, he can have a straight draw on the flop that backdoors into a flush.

I won't try to assign percentages to the possible holdings, but remember we need to be ahead 67% of the time to justify a raise (assuming BK calls a threebet, which I think he'd do, but could be wrong). That means, we only need 33% doubt to not raise. There's a chance of a boat (in the 10% range, I guess), and the rest of the doubt lies in the flush. So, I'm saying there's a 25ish% chance of a flush, and a good chunk of that 25% involves the Ten (seems I lied and did try to assign percentages).

Josh

p.s. To answer your question about what I'd do if the raise was on the turn, my answer is I'd call and lead any non-board-pairing river (and call a river raise).

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]

You think the T in your hand swings it that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

The ten of heats is very important because almost every hand that has 2 heats in it that stox would 3bet on the flop include the ten.

That said I think its a 3bet even w/o the Th.