Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[gumpzilla]

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stats......hahahahhahahahahahahhaha... to combat what? The fake assumptions presented?

don't the ones trying to set up the model have to justify the stats they use

or is solving a math problem that doesn't capture the situation at hand enough???

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You're right, Sklansky forgot to include clutchness in his calculations.

EDIT: And yes, they do mention that Belichick looked at the paper, which was about 4th downs. He appears to go for 4th downs slightly more often than is the norm, based purely on the anecdotal evidence of me watching football games. So some coaches clearly look at it. But to suggest that the football conventional wisdom is clearly based on such iron-clad analysis, as you seem to be, is dumb.