NL50 , KK on flop

[Frawa]

villain is 16/12/9(?)/ wts27

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $50.85
CO: $49.75
BTN: $57.70
SB: $34.55
Hero (BB): $50
UTG: $147.90

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, BTN calls $4

Flop: ($12.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $51.70 and is All-In</font>, Hero ???

[Profish2285]

He seems like a nit from the stats so I guess this could be QQ, but it could also easily be JJ or 1010, or even AA. I doubt its KQ or AJ here, so youre pretty behind his range. I guess this is a fold but its not one I would make so easily.

[plzleenowhammy]

uh, this is a snapcall? how could you possibly fold this?

[Profish2285]

So you put him squarely on QQ? Assuming a villain with those stats for a fair 3 bet calling range, I would guess its 1010-AK. We are ahead of AK and QQ and behind to 1010, JJ, and AA.(sometimes villains flat call 3 bets with AA). I might be thinking too much tho, who knows.

[traz]

Board: Jc Th 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.774% 45.74% 02.03% 12227 543.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 52.226% 50.19% 02.03% 13417 543.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }


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[Frawa]

i guess there are also some draws in his range plus AJ id say
i really cant see me lay this down , convince me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[traz]

Actually even if you take out Ak from his range, it's still a call lol. There are reasons why we say to never fold here


Board: Jc Th 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.990% 35.36% 02.63% 6651 495.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 62.010% 59.38% 02.63% 11169 495.00 { TT+ }


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[Profish2285]

Well if you think there are draws in his range then this is a snap call. This is why I hate going by stats and thats it, cuz they arent as reliable as people like to think. If his range is as tight as I thought then I guess even thats a call tho now that I see pokerstove cuz of pot odds. Im curious tho, did you do all combinations of TT+ and all combos of AK or what?

[Profish2285]

How does that work tho if you take AK out of his range, then this is a correct call? Then youre splitting with one hand, beating another, and losing to 3 others.

[traz]

There aren't many combinations of TT/JJ, so the neutral EV range of QQ+ balances out with the few TT/JJ hands, and brings the overall equity to 40/60.

When you add in AK it's a clear call, and if you add in other random junk it's a even clearer clear call

Edit--- also the stove odds aren't completely accurate because I'm not sure he really plays TT or AA like this.

basically never fold here