Child's QQ -v- Yang's JJ

[Gorvacofin]

It seems crazy to smooth-call QQ preflop if you're not going to get the rest in when the flop comes three rags. I think shove preflop is best though. Not as bad as the hand Hilm was eliminated on though. I think Childs and Hilm were both undone by their desire to outplay Yang on the flop - Hilm by calling with a ridiculous hand out of position, Childs by trap-calling and then chickening out.

[jaybizzle]

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this is the most ridiculous laydown in the history of televised poker! I dont know how these guys make final tables.

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He won a 2 million chip pot off me KK vs AA. If I knew what I know now maybe I lay it down to this nit.

[ravenfan1733]

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different line for Lee Childs???

Jerry is so aggressive this would have been a great spot to C/R...how would u of played it 2p2?

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Ah, but he didn't yet know just how aggressive Jerry was.

It was still a nightmare how he played the hand, but let's try to imagine we don't have a stone cold read on Jerry when analyzing. This was near the start of the final table.


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Your statement that he didn't yet know how aggressive Yang was is not correct. ESPN did a horrid job of illustrating this.

I watched the PPV, and this hand was around hand #11 and Yang had raised roughly 5 of the first 10 hands and won without a showdown. He was clearly playing very aggressively and I said at the time that the QQ fold was beyond horrible.

It is even more horrible when you consider that on the previous day, Yang had raised Child's 10's with A7 and bet $2M on a 9 or 8 high flop. Childs moved all in and Yang folded. Childs already had experience with Yang that Yang was capable of putting a lot of chips in the pot without a big hand.

ESPN's coverage really sucked - where was the rabbit cam to see what the turn and river would have been had Childs called?

[sneaks619]

Your statement that he didn't yet know how aggressive Yang was is not correct. ESPN did a horrid job of illustrating this.

I watched the PPV, and this hand was around hand #11 and Yang had raised roughly 5 of the first 10 hands and won without a showdown. He was clearly playing very aggressively and I said at the time that the QQ fold was beyond horrible.

It is even more horrible when you consider that on the previous day, Yang had raised Child's 10's with A7 and bet $2M on a 9 or 8 high flop. Childs moved all in and Yang folded. Childs already had experience with Yang that Yang was capable of putting a lot of chips in the pot without a big hand.

ESPN's coverage really sucked - where was the rabbit cam to see what the turn and river would have been had Childs called?

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completely agree, i watched the PPV also and jerry had a wide range of hands at that point he moved all in with JJ, that is an easy call, and just played horriblly, Plus last weeks telecast showed him and jerry playing at the same table so he had to know how aggressive jerry was.

[suzzer99]

I wonder if Childs is receiving constant [censored] about this hand now, wherever he's playing live.

FWIW I don't think it's the easiest call ever. Yang can't have expected Childs to fold, and Childs knows this, which greatly reduces the possibility of a draw. So Childs figures Yang thinks he's good, which he did. Does Yang even do that with TT with all the strength Childs has shown pre and post flop? Maybe. 99 doesn't seem too likely. It's very possible Childs was behind Yang's range there by 2-1.

Which I think is about what he was getting to call. But man if there's one place you can make a lot of money by just surviving, it's the WSOPME final table. Look at Tuan Lam. Norm and Lon were bagging on his fold to the money strategy. I'll fold into an extra $3M any day. And he was ugly miracle river away from a real good shot at winning.

Anyway I still think it's a bad fold, but not a trivial call by any means.

[SuperUberBob]

I think he was getting nearly 3:1 on his money here.

I did a Poker Stove on Yang's hand range. It's a pretty tight range, but even if you include 77, 44, 22, it's 60/40 in favor of Yang. It's a clear call. Might have even included other hands that Childs has beat like 88, 99, naked AK, AQcc. It's a call.

172,260 games 0.003 secs 57,420,000 games/sec

Board: 7c 4d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.777% 44.13% 01.65% 76020 2835.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.223% 52.58% 01.65% 90570 2835.00 { TT+, 77, AcKc }

[Silent A]

Here's the action on the hand:

With 630K in blinds and antes, Childs raises preflop to 720k UTG with QQ. Yang re-raises UTG+1 to 2.5 million with JJ. Folds to Childs who calls.

Pot = 5.63 million

Flop = 7 4 2 (2 clubs)

Childs bets 3 million and Yang says "all-in" for 11.78 million before Childs finishes putting in his chips.

Pot = 19.41 million, 7.78 million to call (Childs covers, but apparently not by much).

That's 2.5:1, Childs needs 29% equity to call (ignoring the chip EV to money EV gap).

If Yang's range is (AA-QQ, AcKc) then it's a good fold:

Hold'em Simulation
13,860 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 7c4d2c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsQh 13.46% 1,393 945
AA-QQ,AcKc 86.54% 11,522 945

Anything wider, and it's not:

Hold'em Simulation
19,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 7c4d2c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsQh 36.24% 6,703 945
AA-JJ,AcKc 63.76% 12,152 945

[gusmahler]

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I watched the PPV, and this hand was around hand #11 and Yang had raised roughly 5 of the first 10 hands and won without a showdown. He was clearly playing very aggressively and I said at the time that the QQ fold was beyond horrible.


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This hand was actually the 9th hand of the day:
http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/...day7/page34.htm

Yang won 4 of the first 8 hands.

[Will The Thrill]

it's easy to say what we'd do in that situation after watching, but if for whatever reason CHild's read was that he was either beat, or that Yang had the nut flush draw and had a feeling he was going to catch(which Yang caught EVERYTHING in the hands they showed us) I know if the next spot up is another 100k, that's reason enough to not jump in when your read or your gut says to fold. Plus Jerry had Jesus on his side, he told us so 1500 times! Everyone thought they never showed us Jerry till the final table because he was boring, it's actually because he prayed so damn much he was annoying, not to mention his talking to the other players was equally annoying as Khan's dancing and yelling. I know they showed one hand where two huge all ins ahead of Yang and he had K8 and he goes into the tank, pointless delaying of the action for your opponents who have their tournament life on the line. But hey maybe Jesus was in the bathroom and he had to wait to find out if his K-K-8 flop was coming

[Hollywade]

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different line for Lee Childs???

Jerry is so aggressive this would have been a great spot to C/R...how would u of played it 2p2?

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No. I would do everything exactly the same except I would call the shove within 20 seconds rather than making a speech about how huge a laydown I'm going to make and discussing it with a spectator.