Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL

[MicroBob]

fgators - if they had a system where they flipped a coin to make their picks but their win-pct was only 45% would you pick the other side against them because you have an edge?

If you took 10 different games each week and then measured how each different coin did every week would you follow the nickel's picks because it won 56% of the time or would you decide that picking the opposite of the penny that only won 43% would have greater value?

[NajdorfDefense]

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your system is to spite bet a newspaper columnist? i just cant see how this could fail.

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....whoever has picked these NFL games (it's been different people over the years) has pulled in like a 45% winning percentage ...

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You are wrong.

[MicroBob]

FWIW - You picked NIU among your games. I think you mentioned that you are already reading a Philly paper.
Is it any surprise that the columnists there would be more willing to pick Temple than NIU?

Same goes for Iowa vs. PSU I'm guessing.
They almost have to be more likely to be siding with their home-area team, shouldn't they?

Since I mostly ignore such columnists picks I really can't say for sure. But it definitely doesn't appear to be a coincidence that you have ended up siding against 2 Pennsylvania area teams in this little experiment.

edit - possibly the same can be said in the Clem/VT game if there is any home-area bias towards VT.

[NajdorfDefense]

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FWIW - You picked NIU among your games. I think you mentioned that you are already reading a Philly paper.
Is it any surprise that the columnists there would be more willing to pick Temple than NIU?

Same goes for Iowa vs. PSU I'm guessing.
They almost have to be more likely to be siding with their home-area team, shouldn't they?

Since I mostly ignore such columnists picks I really can't say for sure. But it definitely doesn't appear to be a coincidence that you have ended up siding against 2 Pennsylvania area teams in this little experiment.

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Shhh! You broke THE CODE!

[FGators]

Bob,

I think thats a good point and I think I should disregard any picks that are Philly-tied.

[kdog]

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Now if you want to get into theories, let's talk about when 8 of 8 yambags in one group of columnists from the same paper ALL pick the same side.

That's called 'Fade Time', baby...

NY Daily News is great for this.


This is also, however, a stupid plan.

But not as stupid as yours.

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First off how can you read the Post? That's the worst rag in the history of newspapers. Doesn't even have good comics.

Now stupid or not, when all 7 guys in the Friday Daily News NFL bet box pick the same team I fade them and have been doing it for years profitably. Already 3-1 fading them this year. But ONLY when they all pick the same team.

[Lestat]

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F the haters. Do you think everyone jumped on the whole gravity bandwagon when Einstein first showed up? True genius is always met with cynicism. Keep fighting the good fight I say.

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Wasn't it Socrates who invented gravity?

[psuasskicker]

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Bob,

I think thats a good point and I think I should disregard any picks that are Philly-tied.

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You really don't get it? You're actually that dense?

- C -

[FGators]

1-0 so far for those that care, hahahaha. South Carolina looks pretty dominant against Kentucky. Will be back later once I pick up a newspaper with the NFL consensus to fade.

Keep in mind I am NOT counting the Temple and PSU games since they have a Philly flavor to their picks, if you will.

[kyleb]

FGators,

This explains a lot about your BBV posts.



Edited to remove an unnecessary personal insult -P