craps house edge question

[SheetWise]

Normally the breakage goes to the house -- but if you can buy the 4/10 for $25, and only pay $1 vig when you win, then your expectation for the $25 is $25. You will pay $1 once for every time you lose twice.

You should expect to win 3 times and lose 6 times every 36 rolls -- so you will lose $3 every 36 rolls.

So -- you could look at it using only the 9 rolls that make a decision. Your total handle in those 9 rolls will be $225.

Winners (3 * [50-1])
less losers (6 * 25)

= (3 * [50-1]) - (6 * 25) = (147 - 150) = -3

The 9 decisions should take 36 rolls, so you can count it any way you want.

You've lost 3 units in 9 decisions which took 36 trials. Your handle is $225, so your loss rate is 3/225.

3/225 = .013333