Hand question -- right raise?

[SeanC]

1/2 NL. Mid-position raise to $7 and I call with 88 on the button. SB calls.

Flop is JTT. "A" checks, "B" makes a weak c-bet of $9 and I call. "A" calls.

Turn is a 9. Turn gets checked around.

River is an 8. Player A bets $15 and Player B calls. Neither are particularly good, but "A" would rarely bet a T or bluff this pot and "B" would rarely call with anything less than a straight.

I'm now put to the decision of how much to raise. I conclude that it's likely/very likely that at least one of them has a Q, so I raise to $45. Both fold. "A" didn't show and "B" had a 7, which is uncharacteristic for both players.

Most "did I play this right?" posts are retarded, but I have a specific question:

Heads-up, I'd stand by that raise as I felt it was likely/very likely (which I assigned as a 70% chance) that the V had the Q and if so, I'd be almost guaranteed a call. If he didn't have a Q, he'd simply fold--this has an EV of $28.35: (0.7*(0.9*45))+(0.3*0)

A min-raise would have been guaranteed a call by a Q and would have had maybe a 50% chance of getting called by a weaker hand. There is, however, a slight chance that "A" is bluffing--let's say it's 10%. So, this has an EV of $24: ((0.7*30)+(0.2*(0.5*30)+(0.1*0))))

Now, should the fact that two players were in the pot change my rationale? In the situation given, I feel a min-raise probably would've had the same EV stated above, as "A" calling most likely would've prompted a fold from "B" (unless they both had Qs, but this is very unlikely). But, because the EVs of both situations are very close, should I have min-raised and hoped for the longshot double-call?

[SeanC]

Oh and by the way, based on how the hand went, I thought it was almost impossible to be up against a better boat (5% or less). I know how these two play monsters.

[jay_shark]

I would have bet the turn because your draw is not that great anyway . It doesn't look like anyone has flopped anything they're happy either considering that it's a drawy board .

[PantsOnFire]

I think a good answer to your question is to decide how these two players think about you. Sometimes a small raise will have to be called by a weak straight but other times a large raise might be suspicious enough to be called as well. And that would really depend on whether they see you as a suspicious player.

In other words, your value raise may have looked exactly like a guy with a full house trying to get value out of it. This is especially true if that's how you usually value bet the river.

If these players aren't weak tight, you might want to consider making an abnormal play like a large over bet.

[SeanC]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a good answer to your question is to decide how these two players think about you. Sometimes a small raise will have to be called by a weak straight but other times a large raise might be suspicious enough to be called as well. And that would really depend on whether they see you as a suspicious player.

In other words, your value raise may have looked exactly like a guy with a full house trying to get value out of it. This is especially true if that's how you usually value bet the river.

If these players aren't weak tight, you might want to consider making an abnormal play like a large over bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Though I didn't consider it at the moment, my image probably detracted from the raise some as I wouldn't normally raise that much with a Q, and I definitely wouldn't do that on a bluff. That leaves a boat or better. Oops. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Then again, these donks would've never thought that far. If they had a Q it would've been an insta-call.

Pants, would you mind reading another post of mine? I'd like to get your opinion.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID=

[radradrad]

I agree with Pants. However, your reply to him is a bit confusing. My takeaway from Pant's advice is that I might change-up my behavior by raising even more -- maybe an even $100. They might think the raise so bizzare that they think you have two pair and are trying to steal the pot -- and call you. If they don't call, you've lost nothing. However, like Pants said, first you have to be established with them as someone who actually might make a play like that. Maybe you've shown 2-7 offsuit bluffs in the past. If so, they might call you. That's how I read his post.

[SeanC]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Pants. However, your reply to him is a bit confusing. My takeaway from Pant's advice is that I might change-up my behavior by raising even more -- maybe an even $100. They might think the raise so bizzare that they think you have two pair and are trying to steal the pot -- and call you. If they don't call, you've lost nothing. However, like Pants said, first you have to be established with them as someone who actually might make a play like that. Maybe you've shown 2-7 offsuit bluffs in the past. If so, they might call you. That's how I read his post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I understood what Pants was saying. It's really an issue of EV--keep your image in mind when trying to maximize your EV. This swings either way: it might lead to you bet more or less.