pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]

[Dire]

Rephrasing what I earlier posted regarding differences between green/blue:

Taking it to an extreme, if you were facing an opponent who called every single hand all the way to the showdown then it would be impossible for your green to ever be above your blue - they would be identical. Similarly, if he folded every single hand then your green would be way above your blue.

So the more passive your average villain is, the less the difference between the green and blue will be. The more aggressive your average villain is, the greater the difference between the green and blue will be. Which is identical to saying that the higher the stakes the greater the normal differences between green and blue will be.

I'm also of the opinion that these graphs are completely useless, but it's fun to analyze them anyhow. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[thedustbustr]

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Taking it to an extreme, if you were facing an opponent who called every single hand all the way to the showdown then it would be impossible for your green to ever be above your blue - they would be identical. Similarly, if he folded every single hand then your green would be way above your blue.

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what is a circumstance where the green is below the blue, other than we suck at playing pots that don't go to showdown?

[_dave_]

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from my current understanding, there is no reason for the green line to ever go below the red line, in the long run.


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There is many a good reason... you touch on a couple yourself:

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it means your VPIP is too high, or you are playing mediocre weak hands poorly.

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Others are playing fit/fold, or getting bullied off winning nono-nut hands by superior hand readers.

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This theory fits why lots of strong MSNL posters have such high green lines.


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Indeed.

And herein lies one of the many values of this program - it shows a measure of postflop skill, the like of which grapher/patterns can not possibly do... which is why I am so surprised at the hate directed towards these graphs from many posters. Personally, a graph like Carrotsnake's above, or kotkis in BBV, is much more impressive (to me) than someone luckboxing a big win and posting pokergrapher pics.


I expect many SSNLers (myself included) have green lines well below red/blue - Nuggets above is one - and they are commonplace in uNL forum - these indicate postflop could be improved, I think - although it could also be a symptom of limp/call/fit/fold etc. One need to employ the filters to narrow it down [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

dave.

[thedustbustr]

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more graphs please!

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[Double Eagle]

This is what a nit's August graph would look like.

[thedustbustr]

that looks like the variance is all sorted out, someone explain why red != blue

[_dave_]

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So Carrot is running ~15K below expectation when all in - yet turns a serious profit due winning without showdown... I'd love to learn how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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I am rather confused. Carrot's showdown equity is about -10k, and yet his showdown winnings are +5k. Doesn't this mean that he has run +15k ABOVE expectations?

Clearly the fact that this equity is negative and yet his actual winnings are well above 0 (even if you subtract the 15k from his excessive sucking out) suggests that he wins a lot of money by getting other folks to fold the best hand and as a consequence when he does get called he has the worst of it more often than not.

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Yeah, Whoops I messed that up (and I edited, but still didn't spot my massive errors [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] )

I mean, Carrot is running +15K above expectation, which would be sweet in itself - running at expectation he would have lost $$$ but his won$w/oSD makes up for it and then some.

I got my words muddled, but I was thinking even if Carrot's showdown luck was reversed - he would still have had a profitable 40K hands, thanks to winning $ w/o showdown.

[Dire]

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I expect many SSNLers (myself included) have green lines well below red/blue - Nuggets above is one - and they are commonplace in uNL forum - these indicate postflop could be improved, I think - although it could also be a symptom of limp/call/fit/fold etc. One need to employ the filters to narrow it down [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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This is definitely incorrect for the reasons mentioned above. Get any strong player to go play a $5 NL table. His green is going to be EXTREMELY close to his blue. Doesn't matter if he's the best postflop player in the world. The vast majority of his hands will end up with a showdown and that means green's going to be close to blue. This is a symptom of the average villain's passivity, not a player's skill or lack thereof.

[thedustbustr]

dire, i think it's a measure of both.

[_dave_]

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that looks like the variance is all sorted out, someone explain why red != blue


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A good nit gets paid way more than equity on his nuts hands?

Still, folding too much = green below others.. steal more?