NL 50 QQ set value??

[hunt1897]

"Villian is 55/4/1. I am 100% sure he has AA here. That said with stack sizes, and reads is this preflop play +ev??"



If your read was preflop, this is -EV.

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the true odds of hitting a set?

I've seen 8.3:1 (which I used to think was correct). I've seen 7.5:1 listed on various internet sites. I've also seen other number around....

What's the definitive odds of hitting a set?

[Jan S.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the true odds of hitting a set?

I've seen 8.3:1 (which I used to think was correct). I've seen 7.5:1 listed on various internet sites. I've also seen other number around....

What's the definitive odds of hitting a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume that our hand is XX:

P(we hit a set on the flop) = P(flop contains a X)
= 1 - P(flop does not contain a X)
= 1 - (P(first card is not X) * P(second card is not X) * P(third card is not X))
= 1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48)
~= 11.76%

Thus, the odds of hitting a set on the flop are:

((1 / 0.1176) - 1):1 ~= 7.5:1.