NL20, math behind freecard play? (sc vs aces)

[Jamma]

UTG raises aces and only aces preflop, and its minraises even. vpip 21/pfr 0.5 over 600 hands. When he raises PF he could aswell be playing with his cards face up. He bets pot with top pair/overpair on every street, generally goes broke with tpgk+.


- BB sitting in seat 1 with $19.60
- utg sitting in seat 2 with $27.45
- utg+1 is sitting in seat 3 with $14.75
- MP1 sitting in seat 4 with $17.80
- Jamma sitting in seat 5 with $29.80
- MP3 sitting in seat 6 with $3.34 [Sitting out]
- CO sitting in seat 7 with $20.30
- BTN sitting in seat 8 with $23.04 [Dealer]
- SB sitting in seat 9 with $24.27

** Dealing card to Jamma: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
utg raised - $0.40
utg+1 folded
mp1 called - $0.40
Jamma called - $0.40
CO folded
BTN folded
SB folded
BB folded

** Dealing the flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($1.50, 3 players)
utg bet - $1.50
mp1 folded
Jamma called - $1.50


Here's my question.. raising in hopes of a check on the turn - how do I do the math? 600 hands is obviously not enough to do it accurately, but anyway, what are the stats to look at? I also realize this would most likely not be a good spot for such a play, but I would like to have the actual mathematical proof [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]



** Dealing the turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.50, 2 players)
utg bet - $4.50
Jamma folded



The hand itself isn't really interesting, it's just what got me thinking about a freecard play.