Representing a set or trips

[renodoc]

Assuming good players, deep stacks and a decent buy-in, how successful are you in taking someone off an overpair on the flop or turn with a big raise? When is this play +EV ? (what rate of success is required and is it equal to what we should expect in reality?)

For example:

$1000 buy in, 5000 starting chips 25-50
25 min into a 45 min level and villian has played 2 hands.
Hero is in SB with 44.
Player in MP makes it 150
Villian in CO makes it 400 (QQ+)
Hero calls.
MP calls.

Flop:

8 8 5

Checked to villian who bets 1000.

For academics assume MP is going to fold regardless.

Success of a push here?

What if the flop gets checked around? (this might be in violation of my original assumptions about the players)

Turn is the blank of moons and it is checked to villian again who now bets 1000. Easier to pop him now that he is obviously afraid that hero holds an 8 ???

I've read many posts where the hero is the one holding the overpair, bets on the flop and then faces a huge raise that is often interpretted as a set, and then of course is encouraged to dump it. This seems exploitable.

[Cornell Fiji]

Don't try to bluff an overpair on an 885 board. That is the best possible flop for QQ+ that is not a set.

The fact that you called a bet and a raise preflop means that you should not have A8s so the only hands they are afraid of are 55/88 and there are a grand total of 4 combinations of those hands. You also could be overplaying 99/TT/JJ of which there are 18 combinations.

Your bluff here was very poorly timed. Against a bet and a raise preflop if you are playing 44 it should be solely for set value (or for when the flop comes 235)

[renodoc]

Well, maybe its a poorly constructed example. It's not a real life situation.

Make the flop whatever to want to best exploite the overpair, and then tell me how and when it can be done.

When the SB calls the 400 bet, what range is the villian putting him on? Any PP? High suited connect???

[0evg0]

fold pf

[renodoc]

why would you fold PF when you can stack the overpair if you hit getting > 10-1 ??

[Jamma]

You don't close the action preflop. Not everyone will stack off with an overpair. He isn't guaranteed to have an overpair those times you do make a set.

But mostly, you're coming in after a raise and a reraise and don't close the action.